Toronto Maple Leafs should sign Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews now

The best time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to lock up young stars Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner is right now.

With training camp fast approaching, the main top of conversation surrounding the Toronto Maple Leafs is the contract status of William Nylander.

Leafs Nation is starting to get uneasy, wondering why a contract hasn’t been signed. TSN isn’t easing that tension by posting an article almost daily as to why the team should trade him. Fear not, Nylander is going to be a Leaf for a long time. Expect a deal done by the time training camp opens September 14th.

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The bigger question is whether new general manager Kyle Dubas will get a deal done with Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews before the start of the season. Both players still have a year left on their entry level deals, so it’s not as pressing as the Nylander situation. But from a Leafs perspective, why wait?

Connor Mcdavid signed a massive eight-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers the moment he was eligible last July. Jack Eichel also signed his eight-year extension with the Buffalo Sabres before the start of the last season. The Leafs need to follow suit with their two young stars.

Why The Leafs Should Push To Get Both Done Now

Dubas has gone on record saying the team will take a patient approach when it comes to the contract negotiations with their young stars. He wants to thoroughly explain the long-term plan to the players to ensure everyone is in a comfortable place before making long-term commitments.

That’s all well and good, but the Leafs need to sign Marner and Mathews now. The Toronto media can be a circus at times. The last thing the Leafs should want is for Marner and Matthews to have to answer contract questions daily.

Both players are exceptionally talented and have handled the pressure of playing in Toronto almost flawlessly to this point. But what if both players get off to slow starts next season? The massive expectations that are on the Leafs this season, coupled with being in the last year of their entry-level contracts with no extension in place, is a lot to deal with.

The Leafs need to avoid a McDavid and Draisitl situation. The Oilers made the decision to lock up the superstar McDavid first. Can’t fault the Oilers for their urgency to get their top player signed, but by getting that deal done first, it pushed Draisitl’s number up.

That is why the Leafs should sign Marner first, then Matthews shortly thereafter. Marner’s agent will argue his client is right on par with Mathews. It has been widely speculated that his contract will be in the ballpark of eight years with an AAV of $11 million. If that’s the case, Marner’s agent Darren Ferris will push for a contract similar, which could potentially give the Leafs 3 contracts over $10,000,000. Not ideal.

Sign Marner for the max eight years and pay him in the $9 million to $9.5 million per year range, then give Matthews the $11 million AAV. A win-win for both sides.

Why Matthews and Marner should wait

The agents for Marner and Matthews have every incentive to wait. Marner is going to play on a line with Tavares, which makes 80 plus points next season a reasonable expectation. If he comes out of the gate the way he finished last season, as well as being the Leafs best player in the playoffs, his number will continue to rise.

The salary cap also appears to finally be consistently trending upward and the Seattle expansion will help with that. Marner is arguably a better player than Jack Eichel, who is getting $10 million starting next season. Out of the Leafs big three (Matthews, Marner and Nylander), Marner’s contract will be the toughest to get done.

Matthews is already one of the best goal scorers in the NHL. His five-on-five impact is one of the best in the NHL while barely producing on the PP to this point. The addition of Tavares gives the Leafs incredible PP line combos to put out, which should free Matthews up more to get his quick release off. Matthews endured an injury-riddled season last year, and still put up an over 40 goal pace, so knock on wood he stays healthy next season, over 40+ goals will happen.

The top two lines head coach Mike Babcock has teased have Marleau replacing Hyman on Matthews wing, which should also help. In an interview with The Athletic’s Jonas Siegel, Matthews discussed how he wants to put up more assists than goals. That’s not likely, but passing the puck to Marleau instead of Hyman will definitely help his assist totals.

Opposing teams place a lot of attention on Matthews, freeing his linemates up. The easier matchup’s Matthews should get with the arrival of Tavares bodes well for better production. McDavid has set the market with his $12,500,000 AAV, and while Matthews isn’t as good as McDavid, it will be interesting to see if Matthews still gets the higher salary with the cap going up.

Conclusion

A majority of NHL players are looking to as much financial security as possible, as quickly as possible. Elite players like Marner and Matthews aren’t in that majority. Their talent allows them to bet on themselves going into contract years. Matthews has said that there is “no rush” to get the deal done because from his standpoint there isn’t. He is going to get paid one way or another.

Marner is in the same boat. His ability to make players around him better makes him highly valuable to the Toronto Maple Leafs. He has 30 goal ability if he decided to shoot the puck more, but his pass-first mentality will make him one of the best playmakers in the NHL for years to come.

The patient approach that Dubas wants to take with these negotiations isn’t the right way to go. The Leafs are going to have to pay both players so waiting until the last second doesn’t make sense. Get the deals done now to avoid a distraction to a team poised to make a run at the Stanley Cup.

Contract Prediction:

Marner – eight years, $9.5 million AAV

Matthews – eight years, $11 million AAV