Arizona Coyotes: Clayton Keller leads exciting young team
After a busy offseason, Clayton Keller and the Arizona Coyotes have the potential to be this year’s surprise NHL team.
The Arizona Coyotes 2017-18 season was a bit of a roller coaster ride. It started with a historically awful beginning but ended with an impressive run. During the month of March, the Coyotes finally started to look like a fringe playoff team. Unfortunately, it was far too late for Clayton Keller and the rest of the crew.
If the Coyotes can build off their strong finish, they could be this year’s New Jersey Devils. No one expected them to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2017-18. But the NHL is funny and there’s usually at least one team who shocks everyone by making the playoffs. Led by Keller and Oliver Ekman-Larsson, this could be the Coyotes turn.
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On paper, Arizona only finished with 70 points. But considering how badly they started, if they can build off of that and have a few pucks bounce their way, in a really weak Pacific Division, the Coyotes have an intriguing ceiling.
Offseason Review
The biggest thing the Yotes did this summer was re-signing Ekman-Larsson to an eight-year deal. They needed to get it done and they had to overpay him. But it doesn’t matter because the Coyotes finally kept the kind of talent you’d expect a small market team to lose. That’s much needed good news for a franchise desperately needing some.
Last season, the Coyotes lacked goal scoring. To address this issue, they traded Max Domi for Alex Galchenyuk of the Montreal Canadiens. Both players needed a fresh start. However, it’s pretty clear Galchenyuk is the more intriguing player because he’s merely two years removed from scoring 30 goals. He fell out of favor in Montreal, but if this change in scenery gets him back to his goal scoring ways, watch out.
Michael Grabner, who got a three-year deal worth $10.5 million overall, is a flawed player who’s pretty much a two-trick pony. But his two tricks are nice ones to have – he can score goals and he’s fast. In a third line role, Grabner should be able to give the Coyotes at least 15 to 20 goals. He should be a nice addition to their penalty kill as well.
Jordan Oesterle was an afterthought in the trade that sent Marian Hossa‘s deal to Arizona. In a small sample size, he did really well for the Chicago Blackhawks last season. Injuries and depth issues forced him to play over 20 minutes a night and Oesterle managed to hold his own.
Strengths
Center Depth
Don’t look now, but the Coyotes have quietly assembled a nice group of centers. You can pencil Derek Stepan in for 50 points as season despite facing tough competition. It remains to be seen if Galchenyuk will play center for the Coyotes, but it’s worth noting his best days have come down the middle. He’s flawed defensively, but he might be Arizona’s most gifted center option on offense.
Christian Dvorak got one of the more unexpected extensions this summer a year ahead of the last season of his entry-level contract, but he’s done well for the Coyotes. Dylan Strome had a strong March and has dominated in the AHL. He’s ready for the NHL. Brad Richardson should lead their fourth line and Vinnie Hinostroza has experience down the middle as well.
Dvorak, Galchenyuk, and Strome won’t all start off the year as centers. Someone’s moving to wing. It’ll likely be either Strome or Galchenyuk, given their faceoff woes. But, as they say, you can never have too many centers.
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Goaltending
Arizona has better goaltending than a lot of people think. Antti Raanta was phenomenal once you look past his record. His save percentage put him among the league’s best goalies. Raanta also finished strong, posting a save percentage of at least .920 in 15 of his last 17 appearances (though one of those was a relief appearance).
Last year, the Coyotes didn’t have a quality backup behind him. That won’t be the case in 2018-19. Darcy Keumper isn’t a starting goalie, but he’s proven to be a reliable backup. Between Raanta and Keumper, the Coyotes have a pretty solid tandem.
Sneaky Good Top Pairing
OEL and Jason Demers were very good together last season. They nearly broke even at five-on-five in goals, which is impressive considering they played over 900 minutes together and the Coyotes had a -24 five-on-five goal differential last season. The Coyotes still have to figure out their other two pairings, but they can at least hang their hat on a sneaky good top pairing.
Weaknesses
Scoring
The Coyotes have made some impressive strides, but last season, they were the second-worst scoring team in the NHL, with only the Buffalo Sabres trailing them. Only four of their players had at least 40 points, and one of them (Domi) got traded.
To win in the NHL, you need to put pucks in the net. Acquiring Galchenyuk should help, as should a full-time promotion for Strome. Grabner probably has another 20 goal season left in his tank. Keller should improve on last season’s impressive totals. But even with all of this, the Coyotes likely aren’t going to score too many goals.
Second And Third Pairings
Arizona needs to be better defensively. Finally addressing their goaltending should help. But ultimately, it starts with their second and third pairings. Jakub Chychrun and Niklas Hjalmarsson did well in 261 five-on-five minutes. At the very least, the former did far better with the latter than he did with Alex Goligoski.
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Goligoski and Kevin Connauton or Jordan Oesterle could be a solid pairing. But do the Coyotes have the courage to put Goligoski on the third pairing, which, frankly, is where he belongs after last season? There’s a lot of promise in the Coyotes’ bottom two pairings, but there’s also quite a bit of uncertainty.
Power Play
Getting Galchenyuk should help improve the Coyotes power-play. But they were one of the worst units in the NHL last season, converting on just 16.87 percent of their chances. The Coyotes aren’t going to be an overwhelming team at five-on-five, so to make some noise, they’re going to have to do more damage on the power play.
A New Hope
It’s not a secret that the Arizona Coyotes aren’t doing too well as a franchise. Having a dreadful arena situation and bad finances will do that to you. But for the first time in a while, the Coyotes have hope.
Keller gives them a forward they can build around. He’s one of the most exciting and skilled wings in the league. At 20 years old, his best days are ahead of him. Keller had one of the best rookie seasons in Coyotes history in 2017-18 and should build on it this season. It’s been a while since Arizona has had a forward as fun to watch as him.
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Ekman-Larsson gives the Coyotes the franchise defenseman they’ve long needed. His extension also gives Arizona a ton of credibility. A top-tier blueliner wants to play for the Coyotes. That’s a pretty exciting thing to think about. He’s likely their future captain and it’s honestly a bit surprising the Coyotes haven’t made it official yet.
Mike Smith did some awesome things in goal for Arizona. Now Raanta gives them a potentially even better netminder. If he can stay healthy (and that’s a fairly big if), he’s shown the potential to be a franchise goaltender.
The Coyotes need this core to have success because they can’t afford to fail. Failure could mean hockey in Arizona is done.
Burning Questions
As mentioned earlier, the Arizona Coyotes have a lot of uncertainty right now. Here are the three burning questions they face entering the 2018-19 season.
Can Dylan Strome build off a strong March?
In the month of March, the Coyotes did quite well. Strome was a huge part of that. In his last 10 games, he had eight points in a third-line role. Strome’s a bit of a wild card, as he has yet to prove himself in the NHL. But his impressive AHL numbers at such a young age (he’s only 21) suggest he’s ready to take the next step.
It would be wise for the Coyotes to start Strome off on the wing and see if he can stick there. This would give him less defensive responsibilities and allow him to focus on what he can bring to the table on offense. Once Strome gains confidence, ease some more responsibilities onto him.
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Is Alex Galchenyuk a center? And just how good is he?
Yes, that’s two questions. But bear with me. Despite what the Canadiens might think, the answer to the first question is “yes”. Galchenyuk’s numbers have always been better when he’s a center as opposed to a wing.
Now, the second question is far more meaningful. Can Galchenyuk produce enough to justify his defensive deficiencies? The Canadiens thought the answer to this question was no, but the jury is still out on this one.
Arizona has nothing to lose by trying out Galchenyuk at center. Considering what happened the last time he played a full season at center, a 30 goal season could be in the cards.
With a full offseason, can Chychrun take the next step?
Considering Chychrun overcome a serious injury to play in 50 games for the Coyotes, he did mighty well last season. He didn’t have a full offseason and still didn’t look out of place, which is an encouraging sign for the young defenseman. Chychrun still hasn’t had a full healthy offseason, as he had shoulder surgery before the 2016 NHL Draft.
If Chychrun is fully healthy, he could be a huge piece for the Coyotes, who need to figure out their defense. A full summer of training and conditioning could do wonders for him. So would a consistent defensive partner. Hopefully, a combination of both will help him realize his true potential.
Season Prediction
The Arizona Coyotes are still in a transitional phase between contending and rebuilding. But at the same time, they’re expecting better results. And, given their recent moves, much more change could be coming if the Coyotes aren’t at least competitive.
Arizona has enough pieces, barring unforeseen injuries, to at least be a competitive team. They don’t have a true strength to hang their hat on, but their ceiling is pretty high. Granted, the Coyotes will need a lot to go right for them to be in the postseason race in late March. But at least it’s plausible.
The Coyotes are taking some risks with Galchenyuk and Raanta. But they’re smart risks. The kind that could pay off big time because they’ve each shown the potential to be huge difference makers.
I see a lot of the 2017-18 Devils in the Coyotes. Of course, they lack the Hart Trophy candidate in Taylor Hall. But the Pacific Division isn’t nearly as great as the Metropolitan Division. The Devils took some calculated risks that paid off.
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Arizona appears to be in a similar spot in a weaker division. So, yup, the playoffs are at least plausible. Possible? No. Plausible? Absolutely. Especially if the Ducks aren’t as good as everyone thinks.
At the very least, the Coyotes will be a fun team to watch and one worth staying up late to watch.