Buffalo Sabres: Rasmus Dahlin leads revamped defense
Are Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, and the Buffalo Sabres ready to take the NHL by surprise after an offseason full of changes?
The Buffalo Sabres have been stuck in a rebuild for the past seven years. Their rebuild has been started, restarted, and restarted from the previous restart. All of the pain became worth it when the Sabres drafted defenseman Rasmus Dahlin with the top overall pick.
A huge reason Buffalo has been rebuilding has been to get their franchise cornerstones. They already had Jack Eichel and Casey Mittelstadt but needed a defenseman to lead their blueline. There’s no reason to believe Dahlin won’t be that guy.
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Last season, the Sabres were expecting results, and rightfully so. They didn’t get the desired results, so Buffalo began a lengthy process of changing their culture. It was led by trading center Ryan O’Reilly to the St. Louis Blues.
Next, the Sabres made some bold moves by signing goaltender Carter Hutton and trading for goal scoring wing Jeff Skinner. Both of these moves show Buffalo is once again expecting better results this season.
Last season, the New Jersey Devils took the league by surprise and wound up making the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Could the 2017-18 Sabres follow a similar path?
Offseason Review
Additions: Skinner, Hutton, Dahlin, F Conor Sheary, D Matt Hunwick, F Vladimir Sobotka, F Patrik Berglund, F Tage Thompson, G Scott Wedgewood, D Brandon Hickey
Departures: O’Relly, G Robin Lehner, D Justin Falk, D Josh Gorges, D Victor Antipin, F Jacob Josefson, F Jordan Nolan, G Chad Johnson, F Benoit Pouliot
The Sabres made it a point to address their forward depth this offseason. Sheary is an intriguing wing, even if he hasn’t done well away from Sidney Crosby. Hunwick is a decent depth defenseman. Sobotka and Berglund should help anchor the Sabres’ bottom six while Thompson could grab a top-six role.
Wedgewood will effectively be the third-string goaltender and gives them some AHL depth now that Linus Ullmark will probably be on the NHL roster. Skinner has one year left on his contract, so that’s going to be a fascinating situation to watch. Will they re-sign him? Or hope to flip him at the trade deadline for a larger return than they gave up?
Strengths
Young Talent
The Buffalo Sabres have three cornerstones they can build around. Eichel is one of the best centers in the NHL. Despite suffering numerous injuries, he’s still been pushing a point per game over the past two seasons. Eichel’s done this despite not having optimal linemates. The addition of Skinner should help him immensely.
It’s hard to project prospects, but there’s no reason to believe Dahlin won’t be a cornerstone. He’s a mobile defenseman who plays a great two-way game. Moreover, Dahlin can be dynamic on offense. The Sabres have long needed a true number one defenseman and now they have one.
Mittelstadt got a cup of coffee in the NHL last season, playing in six games and picking up five points. O’Reilly’s departure ensures he’ll be on the second forward line. You need to be strong down the middle to win a Stanley Cup and the Sabres are definitely heading in the right direction. There are also guys like Sam Reinhart, Justin Bailey, Evan Rodrigues, and Nicholas Baptiste.
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Top Six Strength
Believe it or not, the Sabres, on paper, are going to have a pretty strong top-six forward core. It starts with Eichel and Mittelstadt down the middle. Reinhart, Kyle Okposo, Skinner, and Sheary should fill out the rest. That’s four proven top six forwards, a rookie who impressed in a small sample size, and a wild card. Sobotka could give Sheary some competition as well.
The Sabres still need to improve their forward depth, but they’ve at least got a pretty good core of forwards to build around. Buffalo’s done the hardest part of rebuilding – finding the guys you can build around.
A Fresh Start In Net
Lehner and Johnson simply didn’t cut the mustard last season. Both are now gone. The Sabres have a new tandem with Hutton and Ullmark. If the former can replicate his success from last season, suddenly Buffalo has a brand new strength that could help them take the NHL by surprise.
Weaknesses
Defensive Depth
Dahlin is going to help the Sabres out immensely. Not only will he be a force on the ice, he also pushes Rasmus Ristolainen into a more appropriate number two or number three defenseman role. However, the rest of their defense is pretty questionable at best.
Marco Scandella and Ristolainen formed a surprisingly solid pairing last season, so the Sabres probably don’t want to mess with one of the very few things about their defense that worked. This leaves Zach Bogosian as the most likely candidate to play with Dahlin. Even if the Sabres put Scandella with Dahlin, that leaves Bogosian with Ristolainen, which isn’t ideal.
Nathan Beaulieu and Jake McCabe will likely form the third pairing. Optimistically, they did well together last season, albeit in a sub-100 minute sample size. The Sabres defense, even with the addition of Dahlin, is still one of the worst in the league.
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Special Teams
The Sabres were a bottom 15 team on both ends of special teams. Their power play was the 12th worst, converting on 19.07 percent of their opportunities. On top of that, the Sabres allowed 10 shorthanded goals, tied for the third most in the league.
Somehow, their penalty kill was even worse. The Sabres killed 77.87 percent of their penalties (10th lowest rate in the NHL). But on the bright side, Buffalo was disciplined, giving their opponents the 11th fewest power plays in the league. And, as they say, the best way to prevent power play goals is to not go shorthanded in the first place.
Still, the Sabres have a lot of work to do on special teams. While five-on-five play is far more meaningful, teams can make up for even strength deficiencies on special teams. If the Sabres can make both ends of their special teams better, that would go a long way to seeing some good results in the standings.
Burning Questions
Is Hutton A Number One Goalie?
Hutton, by virtue of his contract, will likely be the starting goaltender. But the big question is, will he be a deserving starter for the Buffalo Sabres? Ullmark’s numbers in the AHL aren’t overly encouraging, so that should give Hutton some leeway.
Last season, he was one of the best goalies in the NHL. Hutton nearly single-handedly saved the St. Louis Blues season. However, his resume suggests the 2017-18 season is most likely a fluke. Hutton posted a .931 save percentage in 32 games last season. His previous career high was .918 in 17 games.
If you combine his two seasons with the Blues, Hutton played in 62 games and had a .923 save percentage. That should be good enough for the Sabres. But can Hutton replicate that on a team with a far worse defense?
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Can Ristolainen Thrive In A Lesser Role?
Rasmus Ristolainen is about as polarizing of a player as you can get. There are people who love him, but there are also analytically gifted folks who aren’t huge fans of him. And, to be fair, Ristolainen’s possession numbers were outrageously bad before last season.
Last season was a pleasant surprise for him. Ristolainen posted positive relative Corsi numbers for the first time in his career. This is quite encouraging, as it shows he will likely do well in a lesser role. There’s no reason Dahlin shouldn’t be getting top pairing minutes.
The Sabres reportedly had teams expressing interest in Ristolainen, but they didn’t want to trade him. If Buffalo doesn’t improve next season, those trade talks will likely be revisited. But if Ristolainen does well in a second pairing role, suddenly the Sabres might have two decent pairings, which would be remarkable considering how dire things looked just a few months ago.
Season Prediction
This season will be all about results for the Buffalo Sabres. While that’s not ideal as a rebuilding team, it’ll be hard for them to not be better than they were last season. If the Sabres aren’t, they need to re-evaluate things.
On paper, Buffalo should absolutely be better. Losing O’Reilly hurts a bit, but gaining Mittelstadt, Dahlin, Sheary, Berglund, Thompson, and Sobotka offsets that. At the very least, the Sabres will have options for their top three forward lines.
Buffalo has two elite talents in Eichel and Dahlin. If there’s one thing that can help a team overcome flaws, it’s elite talent. And the Sabres will have a relatively weak Atlantic Division to beat around. Sure, the Maple Leafs, Lightning, Bruins, and Panthers should all be contenders. But the Canadiens, Senators, and Red Wings should all be cellar dwellers.
Teams with depth will have their way with the Sabres. But those who don’t could have trouble since Buffalo has no fewer than two legitimate forward lines.
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The Sabres might be the worst team I can still plausibly see making the playoffs. Granted, it involves so many things going right, it would be asinine to expect a postseason appearance. But it’s undeniably plausible. Most likely though, the Sabres will see an eighth straight season end early. Armed with four 2019 first-round picks, though, they could become legitimate Stanley Cup contenders as early as next season if they play their cards right.