Carolina Hurricanes: 2018-19 NHL Season Preview, Predictions
The Carolina Hurricanes have the longest postseason drought in the NHL. After a summer of changes, can they end it before it hits a decade?
The Carolina Hurricanes are coming off one of the busiest summers in franchise history. After they got a new owner in Thomas Dundon, he left his stamp on the franchise by making some significant changes. He re-assigned general manager Ron Francis (and later fired him) and allowed head coach Bill Peters to utilize his opt-out clause.
Replacing Francis will be Don Weddle, who is most famous for driving the Atlanta Thrashers out of Atlanta. But maybe he’s finally learned his lesson. Replacing Peters will be franchise legend Rod Brind’Amour, who got a promotion from his role as an assistant coach.
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Not only that, the Canes roster will look very different when they drop the puck in October. Usually quiet in the offseason, the Hurricanes were busy early and often this summer. At the 2018 NHL Draft, they traded for Dougie Hamilton and Micheal Ferland, surrendering Elias Lindholm and young defenseman Noah Hanifin in the process.
The Hurricanes also signed defenseman Calvin de Haan to account for the loss of the left-handed Hanifin. And to account for the departure of goaltender Cam Ward, Carolina brought in free agent goaltender Petr Mrazek. Not all of their change was necessarily good, as they sold low on Jeff Skinner. The Buffalo Sabres had three 2019 first-round picks and the Canes somehow wound up not getting any of them for a guy who’s a proven top-tier scorer.
Now, I said this about the Calgary Flames, but it applies here as well – change can be a good thing or a bad thing. The Hurricanes have long needed change, and Dundon brought it. Will the changes be good or bad? Because that’s going to determine how quickly the Hurricanes can break the NHL’s longest active postseason streak. Change has been brought in the past to the Canes and most of that change was bad.
Projected Lineup
Italicized players are new. Rosters were created with the help of Roster Resource.
Forwards
Sebastian Aho – Jordan Staal – Teuvo Teravainen
Micheal Ferland – Victor Rask – Justin Williams
Warren Foegele – Martin Necas – Andrei Svechnikov
Brock McGinn – Jordan Martinook – Valentin Zykov
Depth forwards: Saku Maenalanen, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Greg McKegg, Lucas Wallmark, Janne Kuokkanen
Expect the Hurricanes to go a bit young as far as their forwards. This would be new, considering how most NHL teams prefer the “known” to the “unknown”. But the Hurricanes young forwards are really good and deserve a shot.
Their first line did very well last season, but it’s worth pointing out Aho and Teravainen did better without Staal. So maybe the Hurricanes should explore other options on the top line. Ferland has experience playing on the top line as a right wing, so he could get a shot there.
The second line is a bit questionable, as Rask is coming off a disappointing season. He did alright as far as possession, but he struggled away from Williams. If Rask can rebound, that should help. Ferland should be a nice option on the left side.
Their third line, if it’s as listed, is going to be sheltered, but should be a lot of fun. You have three talented young forwards, including their past two first-round picks. Foegele got a well-deserved cup of coffee in the NHL after scoring 28 goals in 73 games in the AHL. Necas has been dominant at every level and so has Svechnikov.
Zykov isn’t a traditional fourth line forward, but he needs to be in the NHL. He’s too darn good for the AHL at this point. Martinook and McGinn should help form an effective fourth line, which will be necessary with all the young players. Their depth forwards give the Hurricanes some strong options.
Defensemen
Calvin de Haan – Dougie Hamilton
Trevor van Riemsdyk – Justin Faulk
Depth defensemen: Haydn Fleury
I’m really curious to see what the Carolina Hurricanes do with their blueline because it’s stacked. Will they keep Pesce and Slavin, who have been extremely effective as a duo, together? Or will the new shiny car (Hamilton) get a shot with Slavin? Regardless of what they go with, they’ll have a pretty strong group of defensemen.
de Haan is an interesting guy to bet on, but if he’s healthy, he’s a very good defenseman. He’d benefit from having someone like Hamilton or Faulk playing with him, as offense is not his strong suit.
Goaltenders
Petr Mrazek
The Carolina Hurricanes have been plagued by bad goaltending in recent years. Don’t expect that to change in 2018-19, though maybe Darling will bounce back a bit. Mrazek should provide some competition for the top goalie spot and might even wind up winning it.
Strengths
Skillful Youth
Most of the Carolina Hurricanes best players are young. Even before factoring in Necas and Svechnikov, Teravainen and Aho were arguably their two best forwards from last season. Staal is a bit underrated, as he’s just outside that tier of great centers. But he’s still a pretty good one.
Svechknikov and Necas should give them a huge boost. The former has been a top-tier goal scorer, posting eye-popping numbers at every level he’s played at. Necas didn’t look out of place playing against grown men in the Czech league. It feels like they should be older, but Hamilton just turned 25 and Slavin is still under 25.
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Strong Possession Numbers
The Carolina Hurricanes have struggled to score goals, but they’ve been playing strong possession hockey over the past few years. Last season, the Hurricanes ranked in the top five across the board in possession stats. However, this did not lead to goals.
Still, if the Hurricanes dominating possession and their young players can add some much-needed scoring, Carolina could surprise a lot of people next season.
Blueline Depth
There’s a good chance the Carolina Hurricanes will trot out two first pairings next season. Slavin and Hamilton are both top pairing caliber defensemen. Should the Hurricanes choose to keep them apart, de Haan and Pesce are solid complementary pieces.
Faulk can move the puck and put pucks in the net. The Hurricanes are going to lean heavily on their defense this season. This year, it might be good enough to carry them.
Weaknesses
Goaltending
Last season, no team got worse goaltending than the Carolina Hurricanes. Their .893 save percentage as a team was putrid. Darling had a horrible first season as a starter, as he had the lowest save percentage of any goalie who played in at least 20 games. Cam Ward wasn’t much better.
The latter is now gone. Mrazek hopes to replace him. He was great as recently as the 2015-16 season, but hasn’t been able to match those numbers since then. Mrazek is a talented goalie, but this might be his last shot in the NHL.
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Special Teams
Two reasons the Hurricanes have been unable to have success despite impressive possession numbers are their power play and penalty kill. Last season, Carolina ranked in the bottom 10 in both categories. Brind’Amour will be tasked with fixing both. Svechnikov should be a valuable addition to their power play, as should Hamilton. But Faulk is already a great power play option. So it’ll be interesting to see how the Hurricanes utilize having both Faulk and Hamilton.
Star Power
The NHL is all about star power. Stars can take you to higher levels. The Hurricanes have only one player who I’d consider a star (Hamilton) and even he’s a bit of a stretch. Aho could turn into one, as could Svechknikov. But unless the Hurricanes either develop some stars or acquire them (the latter is far harder to do than the former), they’ll likely toil in mediocrity.
Hamilton’s Impact
Dougie Hamilton is an elite top pairing defenseman. That’s why it’s baffling why the Boston Bruins and Calgary Flames both went out of their way to trade him. Hamilton has put up outstanding results and it’s indisputable he makes his teams better whenever he’s on the ice.
Carolina could be the perfect place for him to succeed. It’s a low-pressure environment and it also has great museums. The Hurricanes are a team built around their defense and Hamilton gives them an outstanding piece.
What’s most important, though, is Carolina can now have a top pairing caliber defenseman on the ice for roughly 40 minutes every game. That’s why the Hurricanes should keep Hamilton and Slavin separated except in dire situations.
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However, there’s one intriguing part of Hamilton’s fit in Carolina. Faulk is one of the best power play quarterbacks in the NHL even after you take into account his disappointing 2017-18 season. Few teams run two defensemen on a single power play unit these days, but the Hurricanes should explore that option.
Hamilton hopes to prove himself to be a true top pairing defenseman in Carolina (even though he shouldn’t have to because he is one). There’s a certain stigma that follows him around. Hamilton gets a fresh start in Carolina and hopefully, he’ll make the most of it.
Season Prediction
Over the past few seasons, it seems like the Carolina Hurricanes are a popular pick to surprise everyone. They’ve got a lot of young talent and their possession numbers have been among the league’s best. However, it’s time for the Hurricanes to put up or shut up.
They should see an improvement over last season. Losing Skinner certainly makes them less deep at forward, but adding Hamilton makes their blueline among the best in the NHL. Carolina has a strength that is so great, it might be able to make up for their other flaws.
That said, the Hurricanes shouldn’t expect to make the playoffs. They would require way more things to go right for them to be able to do so than you should expect. For one, the Hurricanes play in a very deep Metropolitan Division. Even with the New York Rangers rebuilding and the New York Islanders licking their wounds, it’s still a very deep division that could have two wild card teams.
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Secondly, their goaltending has proven to be a liability over the years. Until Carolina exorcises whatever demons are making their goaltending so horrible, they’re not going to be taken seriously as postseason contenders. But the Hurricanes seem to be on the right path and a postseason berth isn’t completely out of the question.