Chicago Blackhawks: 2018-19 season preview, predictions
After a rude awakening last season, can the Chicago Blackhawks bounce back and make the Stanley Cup Playoffs?
Last season, the Chicago Blackhawks fell apart after the injury to goaltender Corey Crawford. He got injured on Dec. 23 and didn’t play again for the rest of the season. At that point, the Blackhawks were 17-14-5 and very much still in the playoff race.
After Crawford’s injury, they went 16-25-5. Their franchise goaltender masked a lot of their issues. And, obviously, not having a capable backup for Crawford hurt as well. The Blackhawks, for the first time in a decade, didn’t make the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
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Chicago decided not to make any significant changes this summer, opting to keep both general manager Stan Bowman and head coach Joel Quenneville. Brandon Saad entered the offseason in trade rumors but wound up sticking around.
With so much on the line this season for the Blackhawks, another season without the postseason will likely not be tolerated. Perhaps no team is more under pressure this season than the Hawks.
Offseason Review
Additions: D Brandon Manning, F Chris Kunitz, G Cam Ward, D Brandon Davidson (PTO), C Marcus Kruger
The Blackhawks defense was horrendous last season. They didn’t do much to address those issues this summer, as Manning and Davidson are nothing to write home about. The addition of 2017 first-round pick Henri Jokiharju could give the Blackhawks the boost they need. However, their blueline is still a major issue.
Adding Kunitz helps the Blackhawks make up for losing Vinnie Hinostroza, who was a part of the trade that sent Marian Hossa‘s deal to the Arizona Coyotes. Still, he’s a fourth-line forward at best and adding him doesn’t really add much to an already unimpressive bottom six.
The Blackhawks learned their lesson last season, as they signed Ward to a one-year deal. He’s not that good anymore, but at least he has NHL experience. That’s an upgrade over what they had last season.
Projected Lineup
How will the Blackhawks lineup look like? Roster projections are with the help of Roster Resource. Italics mean the player is a new addition.
Forwards
Brandon Saad – Jonathan Toews – Alex DeBrincat
Victor Ejdsell – Nick Schmaltz – Patrick Kane
Dylan Sikura – Artem Anisimov – John Hayden
Chris Kunitz – Marcus Kruger – Matthew Highmore
Depth forwards: David Kampf, Jordan Schroeder
The worst kept secret in the NHL is Toews has been declining as far as his production. Adding DeBrincat to the top line should give him a much-needed boost. Combine that with a bounce back year from Saad and the top line might be pretty good.
Chicago’s left wing depth is really poor. Unless they put Anisimov at left wing, either Sikura or Ejdsell will be on the second line. Kane can drive his own line and Schmaltz quietly had a solid season, so the second line should be fine. But the Blackhawks need it to be great.
The third line is where the Hawks’ issues begin. These issues will be far more obvious if Anisimov is moved up to the second line. And the fourth line will struggle to produce.
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Defensemen
Erik Gustaffson – Brent Seabrook
Brandon Manning – Jan Rutta
Depth options: Henri Jokiharju, Brandon Davidson
As bad as the Blackhawks forwards are, their defensemen are worse. Jokiharju will likely get a shot at the NHL roster, but I don’t see him making the Opening Night roster. No reason to rush a guy who will be spending his first professional season in North America.
Keith is still a solid defenseman, but he’s no longer a top pairing caliber defenseman. Seabrook was his most common partner last season, but to say they were ineffective together would be putting it nicely. Murphy and Keith, however, formed at least a competent pairing.
Gustaffson and Seabrook form an unimpressive second pairing. Though it’s worth noting they finished in the green as far as relative possession numbers together. The Blackhawks have to make life easier for Seabrook because his decline has started earlier than they anticipated.
Manning and Rutta aren’t anything to write home about. Davidson could steal a spot from one of them. And if Jokiharju makes the NHL roster, one has to believe Rutta could be the odd man out with Manning playing on his offside.
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Goaltenders
Corey Crawford
Cam Ward
Good news – Crawford, if healthy, has proven himself capable of carrying the Blackhawks. He was having a Vezina caliber season before his injury in December. It’s far from a given that Crawford will be 100 percent healthy, but if he is, the Blackhawks have their magical eraser who can negate most of their defensive issues.
Bad news – Ward is not a reliable backup. GA Pct is a stat that compares goalies to their peers. 100 is considered average. Anything below 100 is above average. Above 100 is below average. It’s similar to wRC+ in baseball, except it’s reversed (above 100 is good and below 100 is bad).
The last time Ward has GA Pct of under 100? 2011-12. Ward is an upgrade over the backup goalie merry-go-round from last season, but not by much. And if Crawford gets injured and he has to be the starter, things could get very ugly.
Strengths
Top Tier Right Wing Depth
The Blackhawks have two lethal right wings in Kane and DeBrincat. This duo will be expected to carry Chicago’s offense. Kane needs no introduction, as he pushes a point per game every season, including last season despite the departure of Artemi Panarin. DeBrincat found a spot on the top line last season and gave it a much-needed element of scoring.
Center Depth
Chicago will have four NHL caliber centers next season. The big question is if they can afford to keep all of them there. Toews might be declining, but he’s still a solid two-way center. Schmaltz has his flaws defensively, but on offense, he does well. Anisimov could solidify the Blackhawks questionable third forward line. Kruger is a face-off specialist who does very well considering he starts most of his faceoffs in the defensive zone.
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Crawford
As mentioned earlier, Crawford is the kind of goalie who can carry his team. This strength comes with two asterisks. First of all, is Crawford fully healthy? He’s dealt with injury issues lately. Most of those injuries Crawford has suffered are the kind that can come back to haunt goaltenders.
Secondly, there’s his age. Crawford turns 35 in December. That’s a critical age for goalies, as that’s when they tend to start a vicious decline. Goalies like Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek, and Roberto Luongo are the exceptions. Can Crawford remain a top-tier goalie? Or will his age and injury history get the best of him?
Weaknesses
Blueline
The Chicago Blackhawks’ blueline used to be the strength of the team. But that was back when Keith and Seabrook were in their respective primes. Age has not treated them kindly. The Blackhawks no longer have a true top pairing defenseman (though Jokiharju and Adam Boqvist give them hope for the future).
Chicago had to rely on Cody Franson last season, which tells you how dire their situation is. There’s hope for the future, but right now, the Blackhawks’ biggest weakness is probably their defense.
Bottom Six Forwards
The Blackhawks will have a largely unproven third and fourth line. Anisimov could help anchor the third line, but with the Blackhawks lack of depth at left wing, they might need him on the second line.
Sikura didn’t do well in a cup of coffee, but should be better with a full offseason. Hayden did alright last season, but much like Sikura, he’s not proven. Kruger and Kunitz aren’t going to bring much to the table as far as offense.
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Power Play
The Blackhawks power play was one of the worst in the NHL last season. Only two teams converted on less power plays than Chicago (Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues). The Blackhawks power play has never been that great, but they need it to be now with their five-on-five numbers not being that impressive.
Burning Questions
Can Saad Bounce Back?
The Chicago Blackhawks desperately need Saad to bounce back offensively. His struggles last season were highlighted by a career low shooting percentage of 7.6 percent after having five straight seasons with it being over 10 percent.
However, Saad was still a very effective two-way forward last year, which is promising. He’s likely going to have a bounce back year, assuming his shooting percentage gets back to what it has been in the past. But the Blackhawks NEED him to be better or they’re going to be in serious trouble.
Who’s Going To Save The Blueline?
You don’t need a very strong defense to win the Stanley Cup. Just ask the 2016-17 Pittsburgh Penguins. But the Blackhawks defense is far below their standards. Chicago did nothing to address this issue other than signing Manning, who’s likely a third pairing defenseman.
Maybe Jokiharju can add some much-needed scoring punch. Davidson could be a solid option as well, but perhaps there’s a reason nobody wanted to sign him to an NHL deal. The Blackhawks need more from their defense, and it’s hard to see where they’re going to get it from. That said, if Keith and Seabrook can bounce back (though the odds are against them), that would potentially save them.
How Long Of A Leash Does Quenneville Have?
Quenneville is one of the best coaches in the NHL. He’s won three Stanley Cups. And for years, Quenneville has helped the Chicago Blackhawks overcome obvious deficiencies to make the postseason.
But the NHL is a “show me now” league. And Quenneville is coming off the worst season of his Blackhawks tenure. If the Hawks don’t make the playoffs in 2018-19, both Bowman and him could be out of jobs.
Season Predictions
It’s hard to see the Chicago Blackhawks being much better than they were last season. Though they have young players who should improve, they also have a number of older players who are trending in the wrong direction. The Blackhawks have done nothing to solve the issues that plagued them last season.
That said, the Blackhawks are also a bit hard to project because they have an ultimate equalizer in Crawford. If he’s healthy, it’s not too hard to see him doing well enough to carry Chicago into the postseason. The Blackhawks would still need a few things to go right for them thanks to the ultra-competitive Central Division.
It might be time for Chicago to start rebuilding, especially since their core of Toews, Kane, and Keith are starting to get old. Guys like DeBrincat, Sikura, and Schmaltz need to step up and prove that they are the next guys the Blackhawks build around.
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The odds of the Blackhawks making the postseason are pretty low even if Crawford is his usual self. They simply have too many depth issues and need too many things to go right to expect a playoff appearance. This season could bring about more changes for the Blackhawks.