Colorado Avalanche: 2018-19 season preview, predictions

Projected Lineup

How will the Colorado Avalanche look this season? Roster projections are with the help of Roster Resource and Daily Faceoff. Additions are in italics.

Forwards

Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Alexander Kerfoot – Tyson Jost – Sven Andrighetto

Matt Calvert – Carl Soderberg – Matt Nieto

Gabriel Bourque – J.T. Compher – Colin Wilson

Depth forwards: Vladislav Kamenev, A.J. Greer, Dominic Toninato

Last season, that first line was one of the most effective lines in the entire NHL. MacKinnon finally learned how to score and wound up as a Hart Trophy finalist. If last season wasn’t a fluke, the Avalanche have a chance. Colorado needs that top line to succeed because the rest of their lineup is a bit of a mess.

Kerfoot was a pleasant surprise last season, finishing with 43 points in his rookie season. But he was the only Avalanche forward with at least 40 points other than their top line. That’s going to have to change. Jost is someone who could step up. If he can emerge as a second line center after a rough rookie season, the Avalanche have a far better chance of making the postseason.

Their third line is the only one other than their top line that’s really set in stone. Soderberg and Nieto played together a lot last season and Calvert is a natural replacement for Comeau. This line did fairly well defensively last season and even managed to score a bit. The fourth line is nothing to write home about, but the Avalanche have plenty of options there.

Defensemen

Nikita Zadorov – Erik Johnson

Ian Cole – Tyson Barrie

Samuel Girard – Patrik Nemeth

Depth defenseman: Mark Barbeiro

The Avalanche should be able to ice two solid pairings. Their best two defensemen are Barrie and Johnson, both of whom are best on the right side. Zadorov and the latter were effective together last season as a shutdown pairing.

Barrie and Nemeth struggled together last season, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Cole got a shot with the former. After all, he’s the shiny new free agent. Girard did very well last season for the Avalanche, but he hasn’t done enough yet to warrant a second pairing spot. He could earn it by the end of the season. Girard’s an excellent puck mover, but it’s hard to see how he’s going to crack the top four, at least to start.

Colorado’s blueline wasn’t much of a strength last season. It hasn’t gotten much better, even with the addition of Cole.

Goaltenders

Semyon Varlamov

Philipp Grubauer

Varlamov’s a free agent after next season, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Avalanche split the starts here. However they do it, it will likely be some kind of tandem, with one goalie getting about 50 starts and the other getting the remainder. Grubauer’s numbers have been outstanding. If he’s the starter, he could be a guy who can help the Avalanche overcome their questionable blueline.

Strengths

Top Trio

The Colorado Avalanche were carried by their top forward line last season. There’s no way around it. The Avalanche scored 257 goals as a team. 93 of them were scored by MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog. They were a net gain across the board in terms of possession. Also, the Avalanche outscored their opponents 47 to 27 at five-on-five when the trio were on the ice.

Even if you factor in expected goals, MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog did remarkably well. The Avalanche will need this trio to at worst repeat their performance from last season. And probably improve on it. The Avalanche would likely be better if they could seperate their three forwards, but they don’t have the depth to pull it off. They need them together.

Special Teams

The Avalanche only outscored their opponents by four goals at even strength. So how did they make the playoffs? By absolutely dominating on both ends of special teams. The Avalanche ranked eighth in power play efficiency and fourth in penalty kill efficiency.

They shot incredibly well with an extra man, posting the third-best shooting percentage during power plays. But is it sustainable? It might not be, as the Avalanche were a bottom five team as far as generating scoring chances. They didn’t fare much better in terms of high danger chances. Their power play reminds me of the Pittsburgh Penguins. It has so much skill, they might be able to sustain a ridiculous shooting percentage.

Likewise, the Avalanche weren’t as great on the penalty kill as you’d think. A large part of their success involved having the highest shorthanded save percentage in the NHL. They also allowed a ton of shots against.

All of this said, the Avalanche did well on special teams last year. They’ll need to be effective on both ends again if they want to make the playoffs again.

The Right Side

The Colorado Avalanche have Barrie and Johnson anchoring the right side of their blueline. Both are very good at what they do. Johnson is more of a shutdown defenseman. Meanwhile, Barrie’s much more of a puck mover and offensive defenseman.

If the Avalanche can find the right guys to partner with them, that would go a long way to solving their defensive issues.

Goaltending

There might not be a better tandem in the NHL than Varlamov and Grubauer. Most of the better tandems have a clear starter and backup. But the Avalanche have two guys who could start for them. Both Grubauer and Varlamov put up outstanding numbers last season. Considering the latter’s injury history, the Avs were smart to trade for the former.

Weaknesses

Forward Depth

I’m not sold on the Colorado Avalanche’s other three forward lines. Jost struggled in his first full season. A breakout season, while undeniably plausible, isn’t likely. Kerfoot looks like a nice complementary piece, but can he carry the second line? Unless the Avalanche break up their top line trio, it looks like he’ll have to.

Soderberg and Nieto did alright together. If Calvert can replace Comeau, that should be a solid trio. But their possession numbers last year weren’t impressive at all. They’ll have to be better in 2018-19.

If the Avalanche get Kerfoot and Jost to carry the second line, that would be huge for their chances. But if they can’t handle the increased playing time, there are going to be some major issues.

Left Side

As great as Barrie and Johnson are, the Avalanche are relatively weak on the left side. Girard probably deserves more minutes, but I don’t see how he’s going to get them. Zadorov is pretty much locked into a top-four role. Cole is the new shiny free agent, so you can expect him to at least start in the top four.

Head coach Jared Bednar has proven to be someone who thinks outside the box, so maybe Girard will be paired with Johnson. He would help cover the latter’s relatively unimpressive offense. But looking past Girard, there’s not that much.

Burning Questions

Is Their Goaltending Good Enough?

The Colorado Avalanche will need Grubauer and Varlamov to be at the top of their games next season to make another playoff appearance. On paper, the Avs have too many weaknesses to overcome. And if their special team units decline, that’s going to significantly hurt their chances.

My guess is Grubauer will start more games. He’s their goalie of the future and the Avalanche likely didn’t surrender a second round pick for a backup goalie. Expect Grubauer to get about 40 to 55 starts to help ease him into the starting role.

If this sounds familiar, it should. The Carolina Hurricanes banked on Scott Darling being a starting goalie last summer and boy did that blow up in their face. Goalies are voodoo, but Grubauer has the appearance of a starting goalie. Let’s see if that’s just a mirage.

Is MacKinnon For Real?

Seeing MacKinnon last season was a rewarding experience. Before 2017-18, he consistently got pucks on the net, but could never quite figure out how to score. MacKinnon busted loose, scoring 39 goals and 97 points in 74 games. Had it not been for an injury, he likely would have won the Hart Trophy.

MacKinnon has always been a talented guy. Now it seems like he’s gotten everything figured out. The Avalanche are going to need him to lead the way next season, much like he did in 2017-18.

Season Prediction

The Colorado Avalanche relied heavily on their elite talent to make the postseason in 2017-18. That will remain the case in 2018-19. They have three excellent forwards in MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen. The Avalanche also have two defensemen they can build around in Johnson and Barrie.

Their goaltending was great last season and it has the potential to be even better this season. Grubauer is an upgrade over Bernier and Hammond, who served as Varlamov’s backup last season. Their depth is a bit unimpressive and there are some questions there. But the Avalanche have gotten the hardest part of building a team over with – they have their building blocks.

Will they be able to make the playoffs again? That remains to be seen. But it’s worth noting both the St. Louis Blues and Dallas Stars have improved this summer. At least one of them will likely make the Stanley Cup Playoffs (likely the former). The Avalanche were the second wild card team last season, so it’s easy to point to them as the team to be replaced in the playoffs.

However, the Avs have something the Blues and Stars don’t – top-notch goaltending. Goaltending is the ultimate equalizer in the NHL. And the Avs have two very capable starters.