Columbus Blue Jackets: 2018-19 season preview, predictions

Projected Lineup

How will the Columbus Blue Jackets look going into the season? These roster projections are with the help of Daily Faceoff and Roster Resource. Italics designate new additions.

Forwards

Artemi Panarin – Pierre-Luc Dubois – Cam Atkinson

Nick Foligno – Alexander Wennberg – Oliver Bjorkstrand

Boone Jenner – Brandon Dubinsky – Josh Anderson

Sonny Milano –  Riley Nash – Anthony Duclair

Depth options: Lukas Sedlak, Markus Hannikainen

One of the Blue Jackets strengths is that they are pretty deep at forward. Obviously, the first line stands out. It was one of the best lines in the NHL last season and, assuming Panarin doesn’t get traded, this should remain true.

Wennberg had a rough season but is a good bounce-back candidate. He played especially well with Foligno and Bjorkstrand, though it was in a sample size of just over 100 minutes. If this trio can continue their success from 2017-18, the Blue Jackets suddenly look like Stanley Cup contenders.

The bottom six is going to be a bit interesting. Milano and Duclair will have to be sheltered, but both have the talent to be difference makers. Their fourth line won’t be much of one, as it could, in theory, be their third line. If Dubinsky can bounce back after a full offseason, the Blue Jackets are going to be a much better team.

Defense

Zach Werenski – Seth Jones

Markus Nutivaara – David Savard

Ryan Murray – Dean Kukan

Depth options: Gabriel Carlsson, Scott Harrington

Much like their forward group, their top pairing stands out. Werenski and Jones have been nothing short of dominant over the past two seasons. Jones was nearly a Norris Trophy finalist and is a dark horse to win the award this year.

Nutivarra has earned himself a spot on the second pairing after an impressive 2017-18 campaign. Savard is a bit underrated, as he doesn’t do much on offense but is pretty solid on defense. This second pairing could be a very good one.

The Blue Jackets will need that second pairing to be good because their third pairing is a bit of a question mark. Murray’s the obvious option on the left side. This could be his last chance with the Blue Jackets. Kukan is the right-side option with the most upside, though he will have to play on his offside.

Goaltenders

Sergei Bobrovsky

Joonas Korpisalo

Strengths

Elite Talent

Few teams have more elite talent than the Columbus Blue Jackets. It starts with Panarin, who destroyed everything in his path during February and March of 2018 with 36 points in 29 games. He got just over a point per game with 82 points in 81 games. Considering how much the Blue Jackets struggled for most of the season, that’s outstanding.

Jones and Werenski are both elite talents as well. The former is extremely well-rounded and is one of the league’s most productive blueliners. Meanwhile, the latter isn’t much of a passer, but boy can he score goals. The two each scored 16 goals last season.

Bobrovsky is a game changer in net. Yes, his postseason struggles are a bit alarming. But it doesn’t change the fact that he’s a two-time Vezina Trophy winner and probably should have been a finalist last season.

Youth

The Blue Jackets match their elite talent with some intriguing young players. I’m not 100 percent sold on Dubois, especially given how much of his success came with Panarin. But the eye test tells me he’s a superb passer and someone who the Blue Jackets can build around.

Bjorkstrand is on the verge of a breakout year. He broke the 40 point plateau for the first time last season. If the Blue Jackets can fix their power play, don’t be surprised if Bjorkstrand shatters the 50 point mark.

Nutivaara quietly had a darn good year in 2017-18. He nearly pushed a 0.50 points per game mark with 23 points in 61 games. Nutivaara isn’t quite the scorer that Jones and Werenski are, but his passing is pretty darn impressive. He did well in a sheltered role last season, did well taking on a second pairing role (albeit in a small sample size), and should be even better this season.

Weaknesses

Checking Line

The Columbus Blue Jackets checking line will be either their third or fourth line. Anderson should make it respectable, but the production (or rather the lack of it) from Dubinsky and Jenner is quite alarming.

Two seasons ago, Jenner put up 49 points, including 30 goals. Since then, his production has been trending downwards. Jenner had 32 points last season. He’s struggled since he’s been asked to take on more defensive responsibilities. If Jenner can show his 2015-16 form, the Blue Jackets could be much better off.

Dubinksy’s struggles are much more concerning. In 62 games last season, he only put up 16 points. Even considering his defensive deployment, Dubinsky was a huge disappointment. Among Blue Jackets who played at least 800 minutes at five-on-five, only Jack Johnson had worse expected goals for numbers.

Postseason Putdowns

The Columbus Blue Jackets have never won a postseason series. A large part of this is the NHL’s silly playoff format. What was the Blue Jackets’ reward for having the third-best record in the Eastern Conference in 2016-17? Oh, just facing the team with the second-best record (the Pittsburgh Penguins).

But still, it’s undeniable the Blue Jackets have issues in the postseason. They lack the killer instinct necessary to put teams away. The Blue Jackets had a great chance to put the Washington Capitals in a 3-0 hole last April. Instead, they blew a 2-0 series lead.

Burning Questions

What happens with Panarin and Bobrovsky?

The Columbus Blue Jackets face a “can’t win” situation with Panarin and Bobrovsky. There are only two ways they can come out as winners – either they extend both of them or they win a Stanley Cup. The latter certainly is plausible, but then again, the Blue Jackets have also never won a postseason series. Meanwhile, the former seems even less likely.

Their front office is going to have a heck of a decision to make at the trade deadline. Will they keep both? Or do the Blue Jackets try to get at least something for one of them (or both)?

Can They Fix Their Power Play?

Last season, the Blue Jackets had the seventh-worst power play in the NHL, converting on just over 17 percent of their opportunities. It cost them games and nearly kept them out of the postseason.

Even in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, their power play let them down. After winning the first two games against the Capitals thanks to their power play, they didn’t score another power play goal for the rest of the series. Considering two of the next four games were one goal losses, it’s not hard to argue their man advantage struggles were a huge reason the Blue Jackets lost.

Season Prediction

The Columbus Blue Jackets should be among the top teams in the Eastern Conference. A lot went wrong for them last season, but they were one of the best teams in the league down the stretch, going 12-4-0 in the month of March. An already good team got deeper this offseason, which should make them one of the three best teams in the Metropolitan Division.

But, as Blue Jackets fans know, that guarantees them a first-round date against either the Capitals or Penguins. And until they beat one of those two teams, they’re going to hear how they don’t get it done in the postseason.

With Panarin and Bobrovsky, I have the Blue Jackets as legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. Their postseason struggles mean virtually nothing, as we saw last season with the Washington Capitals. However, I honestly don’t know if the Blue Jackets are going to keep both of them for the entire season unless they can extend them.

It’s do or die time for Columbus. The past few seasons, the Blue Jackets have been a terrific regular season team. But it has gotten them nowhere in the postseason. Though they are still a good team without Panarin and Bobrovsky, it’s clear they are only Stanley Cup contenders if they have both of them.