Montreal Canadiens: Evaluating the Max Pacioretty for Tomas Tatar Trade

On Sunday, Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights, in exchange for a veteran, a prospect and a draft pick

Having played with the Montreal Canadiens since 2008, Max Pacioretty is finally moving on. Late on Sunday, he was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for forward Tomas Tatar, prospect Nick Suzuki, and 2019 second round pick. Shortly after, he signed a four-year $28 M contract extension with Vegas.

Pacioretty was notable for reaching 60 points in four seasons in a row from 2013-14 through 2016-17. During the 2017-18 season, however, saw a significant decline as he recorded 17 goals and 20 assists for a total of 37 points in 64 games. This puts him on pace for 47 points in an 82 game season. Because of this decline, his future as a leadership figure seems cloudy.

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Tatar will be heading to the Habs. Although he has never been on the same level as old Pacioretty, he also saw a significant decline this season. He had formerly put up at least 40 points every season since 2014-15.

This season, he scored 16 goals and 12 assists for 28 points in 62 games with the Detroit Red Wings. In February, he was traded to the Knights for 3 picks, scoring 4 goals and 2 assists for 6 points in 20 games. This adds up to a season total of 34 points. He only appeared in 8 playoffs games, finishing with 2 points.

However, the most important product of return for the Habs could be prospect Nick Suzuki. I’ve seen him play in person, and he definitely has a lot of potential. He has scored 196 points in his previous 129 regular season games with the Owen Sound Attack of the OHL.

Advanced analysis

Just because most of the coverage of this trade has been fairly similar, it’s important to take advanced metrics into account.

In terms of CorsiFor percentage, Max Pacioretty has constantly recorded some of the best numbers on his team. Even when his numbers were lower, as seen on the graph, his relative CF% was still well above 0.

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Even this season, the Canadiens were a below average Corsi team, at 49.9%. Pacioretty impressively kept his CorsiFor percentage at 53. He really deserves credit for keeping his numbers that high, especially on the team the Habs had.

Until recently, Tatar was a Corsi monster. From the 2013-14 season until the 2015-16 season, he posted a CF% above 56% every year, almost getting to a 60% in 2014-15. During the last 2 seasons, however, he has looked a lot more average. This season in particular, he only managed a 50.6, divided between the Wings and the Knights.

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Alright, well that’s all for Corsi. We can tuck that away. But what analysis is complete without the beloved player comparison tool? Luckily, Pacioretty and Tatar were measured for a similar amount of minutes.

Pacioretty is spectacular in terms of shot contributions, averaging 85 per 60 minutes last season. For everything else, he’s just kinda average. He enters the zone with possession 53 percent of the time, exits with possession 54 percent of the time.

Tatar, on the other hand, does not appear to be very effective in the offensive zone. He averaged just 33 shot contributions per 60 minutes. For everything else, he’s still average-ish, but better than Pacioretty. He entered the offensive zone with possession 59 percent of the time, and exited the defensive zone with possession 62 percent of the time.

Thanks to his shot-contributing abilities, Pacioretty is definitely the better player. Shocker.

Conclusion

So, here’s a bold statement: The Montreal Canadiens won this trade. Pacioretty is better than Tatar, obviously, but it was his time to go. By making this trade, the Habs has, at the very least, conceded that they are not contenders, and are nowhere near being contenders.

Pacioretty had to go eventually, and the Habs got a decent return. Tatar will have a spot in the lineup, and Suzuki has a very bright future. Young talent like him, are exactly what the Habs should be stacking up on.

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At the end of the day, though, no one really loses these types of trades. Both teams got exactly what they wanted.

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