Edmonton Oilers preview: Connor McDavid gives team hope for playoffs

Projected Lineup

How will the Edmonton Oilers look this season? Projected lineup is courtesy of Daily Faceoff and Roster Resource. Additions are in italics.

Forwards

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Ty Rattie

Milan Lucic – Leon Draisaitl – Jesse Puljujarvi

Tobias Rieder – Ryan Strome – Kailer Yamamoto

Pontus Aberg – Kyle Brodziak – Drake Caggiula

Extra forward candidates: Zack Kassian, Scottie Upshall, Alex Chiasson, Jujhar Khaira

Rattie did a darn good job with McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins in a small sample size last year. He deserves a shot with them to start the year. McDavid alone makes this top line one of the best in the NHL.

Of course, the issue with the Oilers last year was getting the other three lines to produce. There were some encouraging signs with the second line, as Draisaitl put up solid possession numbers with Lucic and Puljujarvi (though the trio had minimal playing time together). They didn’t score, however, and that’s an issue.

Yamamoto should get a tryout, much like he did last year. His offense is something the Oilers desperately need. If Edmonton is willing to shelter their third line a bit, it could be a surprisingly productive line if Yamamoto sticks there.

Brodziak is an upgrade over Letestu and their fourth-line center revolving door from last season. Aberg is an intriguing guy who has potential, but he’s approaching the point where he’s got to turn that potential into talent. Caggiula is a solid defensive forward, but brings virtually nothing to the table on offense.

Kassian likely isn’t better than Upshall, Chiasson, or Khaira, so expect the Oilers to try to trade him or bury his contract in the minors.

Defensemen

Adam Larsson – Darnell Nurse*

Oscar Klefbom – Matt Benning

Kris Russell – Jakub Jerebek

Extra defenseman candidates: Kevin Gravel, Ethan Bear, Ryan Stanton

On the rise: Evan Bouchard

If Nurse gets signed, the Oilers can hang their hat on having a pretty nice top pairing. Nurse made huge strides on offense last season. If he continues to improve (and he signs), that pairing should be able to generate more offense, which was a bit of a concern in 2017-18.

Murphy’s Law applied to Klefbom last season. Between injuries, a low on-ice save percentage, and a low on-ice shooting percentage, nothing went right for him. That said, Klefbom’s underlying numbers were still encouraging. Benning will need to step up this season. If he can, suddenly the Oilers might have two solid pairings.

Russell is perfectly fine as a third pairing defenseman. Jerabek has gotten limited playing time, but did rather well when given a chance to play. He’ll need to be sheltered, but he does enough with the puck that he’s a viable third-pairing option.

Bouchard could step in on the third pairing to start because the Oilers appear to enjoy wasting cheap entry-level contracts. He’ll have to impress in preseason. But given Bouchard’s power play numbers and how impressive he has been at every level he’s played at, don’t rule out Bouchard from being on the Opening Night roster.

Strengths

Captain Connor

Elite talent can help a team overcome flaws. The Oilers have the best player in the NHL in McDavid. He has won the past two Ted Lindsay Awards, so it’s pretty much a fact that he’s the best player.

As great as McDavid was when he won the Hart Trophy in 2016-17, he put up better numbers across the board despite getting virtually no production on the power play. That’s frightening because if the Oilers manage to fix their power play (and they have the pieces in place to do it), he could push 110 points, which would be asinine.

It would be an abomination if the Oilers missed the playoffs again with McDavid having another MVP caliber season.

Shutdown Pairing

Not a lot went right for the Oilers last year. There were a lot of dark points. But, aside from McDavid, the brightest spot was Nurse. He turned from a fringe top-four caliber defenseman into a borderline top pairing caliber defenseman. Together, Larsson and Nurse faced tough competition and still managed to post very respectable numbers across the board.

Obviously, Larsson’s strength isn’t offense. So it will be up to Nurse to continue to take charge with the puck. If this pairing continues to grow, the Oilers will be much better because of it.

Weaknesses

Special Teams

The Edmonton Oilers were horrendous on both ends of special teams last season. In 2016-17, they were great. So their decline on both ends in 2017-18 was a huge factor for them not making the postseason.

It’s baffling how their power play could be bad. There’s too much talent for it to be bad. But the Oilers forwards defered far too much to the defensemen, which didn’t work out. With a new coach and hopefully a strategy that involves getting McDavid the puck as often as possible, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them bounce back.

As far as their penalty kill, a new coach should help. So should a necessary infusion of talent into their bottom six. Upshall and Chiasson are both solid penalty killers. Brodziak has been steady there as well. The Oilers special team units should be better. But that doesn’t take away from the fact that as the season starts, it’s a weakness.

Backup Goalie

Cam Talbot declined significantly last season. My best guess is it had something to do with fatigue because the Oilers relied so heavily on him. Edmonton addressed this by signing KHL goalie Mikko Koskinen. Given the options in free agency, it’s hard to blame them.

Koskinen is a big question mark, but his upside is higher than that of guys like Cam Ward and Petr Mrazek. If he can ease the workload on Talbot, that should give them a significant boost.

Forward Depth

Aside from their top forward line, none of their other lines jump out. Sure, Draisaitl proved he can drive his own line. But can he do it with a wing coming off one of his worst seasons (Lucic) and a young forward who, though brilliant, has struggled to adjust to the NHL (Puljujarvi)?

If Yamamoto doesn’t make the roster, their third line will be a bit bland. The Oilers really need to get their other lines going. Because as last season proved, having a generational talent isn’t enough in the NHL.

Season Prediction

A lot of things didn’t go the Edmonton Oilers’ way last season. The injury to Andrej Sekera hurts them and makes their defense much less of a sure thing. Edmonton’s primary issue is they need a number of things to go right for them to contend.

That said, it’s not hard to see them bouncing back. Simply becoming average on both ends of special teams and getting better goaltending is likely good enough to at least be in the conversation for the postseason in March. Especially considering how weak the Pacific Division is.

The Oilers have McDavid. No one can carry their team like him. For about 20 minutes a night, the Oilers will have an extremely good team on the ice. It’s the 40 minutes McDavid isn’t on the ice that Edmonton has to figure out. Separating Draisaitl from McDavid and putting him on the second line would make the solution easier. But do the Oilers have the patience and the depth to do that?

Edmonton’s a fringe playoff team. But they have something none of the other fringe teams have – McDavid. As long as he’s healthy, the Oilers have a shot at making the postseason. They really can’t afford to waste another year of McDavid’s prime. If the Oilers do, they could have a new head coach and general manager by the start of the 2019-20 season.