Florida Panthers preview: Aleksander Barkov leads a hungry contingent
After narrowly missing out on the Stanley Cup Playoffs in 2017-18, Aleksander Barkov and the Florida Panthers appear ready to take the next step.
The Florida Panthers have been searching for consistency ever since they became a franchise. They’ve only made the postseason five times and four of those times, they lost in the first round. After narrowly missing out on making the postseason with an unbelievable finish, the Panthers are on the path to greatness thanks to Aleksander Barkov.
A slow start to last season (19-22-6 before the All-Star Break) negated an unbelievable run in the second half (25-8-2 after the All-Star Break). The Panthers early struggles can be attributed to getting used to their new coach and system. But once they got going, they were one of the most entertaining teams in the league.
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Barkov had a breakout year. The eternally underrated center finally did what it took to ensure he wouldn’t be underrated anymore. Vincent Trocheck had his best season and Jonathan Huberdeau was outstanding as well.
After a busy offseason, the Panthers appear ready to ensure the Metropolitan Division doesn’t get two wild-card spots.
Offseason Recap
Additions: F Mike Hoffman, F Troy Brouwer, F Mark Letestu (PTO), G Michael Hutchinson
Departures: G Harri Sateri, F Radim Vrbata, F Connor Brickley, F Chase Balisy
Hoffman is the crown jewel of the Panthers’ offseason. The Panthers had five really good top six forwards, but couldn’t find a good sixth one. Hoffman should serve in that role. He has off the ice issues tied to his fiance, but the Panthers are in the position to take a calculated risk on a guy capable of putting pucks in the net.
Brouwer and Letestu should fight for spots on the fourth line. But with a number of internal options, their roster spots are not set in stone. Hutchinson should be a quality depth goaltender, potentially filling in at the NHL level if he needs to.
Projected Lineup
How will the Florida Panthers look going into the season? Projected lineup is with the help of Daily Faceoff and Roster Resource. Additions are designated by italics.
Forwards
Nick Bjugstad – Aleksander Barkov – Evgeni Dadonov
Mike Hoffman – Vincent Trocheck – Jonathan Huberdeau
Frank Vatrano – Jared McCann – Maxim Mamin
Jamie McGinn – Derek MacKenzie – Colton Sceviour
Extra forward candidates: Henrik Borgstrom, Troy Brouwer, Michael Haley, Dryden Hunt, Mark Letestu
The Panthers have a problem most teams would love to have. They have too many skilled forwards. Unless the Panthers scratch their captain MacKenzie, Borgstrom is probably going to be the odd man out. He’d be better off in the AHL getting consistent playing time than sitting in the press box, though. Borgstrom is a nice insurance policy in case Vatrano doesn’t impress or someone gets injured.
Not much needs to be said about their top line. This trio was extremely dominant last season. The second line was very good, but lacked a true finisher other than Trocheck. Hoffman should give the second line another great scoring option.
Their third line is perhaps their least set in stone line. It wouldn’t be surprising if Borgstrom forces his way onto the third line with a strong preseason. Vatrano has posted impressive AHL numbers, but has yet to post impressive NHL numbers. Still, his scoring rates are insane and he warrants a long look there.
McGinn could bring some much-needed skill to the fourth line. Sceviour is a strong defensive forward who can chip in points from time to time. Don’t rule out 2017 first round pick Owen Tippett from making the team, though he’d have to rise fairly significantly on the depth chart.
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Defensemen
Keith Yandle – Aaron Ekblad
Mike Matheson – Mark Pysyk
MacKenzie Weegar – Alex Petrovic
Extra defenseman: Ian McCoshen
The Panthers defense isn’t up to par with their offense, but they improved a lot last season. They allowed an alarming amount of shot attempts and shots on goal, but managed to be a slightly above-average team in terms of scoring chances against.
Yandle and Ekbald broke even as far as goals but didn’t post good possession numbers together. Matheson and Pysyk are a solid second pairing, though they need to generate a bit more offense.
Weegar and Petrovic played well together in about 500 five-on-five minutes last year. If the latter can stay healthy, the Panthers have their three pairings set. But there’s where the trouble starts – the cats don’t really have much in terms of defensive depth. McCoshen seemed out of place last season.
Goaltenders
Roberto Luongo
James Reimer
Third goaltender: Michael Hutchinson
If the Panthers can clean things up defensively, this tandem is good enough to take them to the postseason. This, of course, assumes Luongo maintains his access to a Lazarus Pit. Hutchinson gives them solid AHL depth.
Strengths
Forward Depth
The Florida Panthers are going to have plenty of options as far as forwards. And that’s a really valuable thing. It’ll be curious to see how their top two lines pan out. Hoffman and Bjugstad could swap lines from time to time, especially if the Panthers need more offense.
Their third forward line, no matter who it consists of, will be a fascinating one to watch. McCann impressed last season and showed he could carry a third line. Given how strong the Panthers top two lines are, they can afford to shelter their third line a bit, which might benefit Vatrano.
MacKenzie is their lone big issue, but if your fourth line center is your biggest issue, that means you’re in pretty darn good shape.
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Penalty Kill
The Panthers had a strong penalty kill last season, killing a shade over 80 percent of their penalties. Their defense bled shot attempts and scoring chances against, but it’s worth noting they improved as the season went along. The Panthers were a middle of the pack shorthanded team as far as scoring chances against after Jan. 1.
It appears they cleaned up the issues that plagued them early on. Barkov is arguably the best penalty killer in the NHL. The Panthers will need their penalty kill to remain a strength. Hopefully, they can continue to build on their improvement over the new year.
Center Depth
You need to be strong down the middle to contend for a Stanley Cup. The Panthers are strong down the middle with Barkov, Trocheck, and McCann. Borgstrom could join the trio eventually and Letestu could prove to be an option there as well.
Weaknesses
Defense
The Panthers blueline was an issue last season. It’s a bit surprising they didn’t do something to shake up their defensive core via a trade or free agency signing. Ekblad is a guy who looks like a top pairing defenseman, but his results say otherwise. Yandle’s defensive flaws are well known, but he usually makes up for them with what he can do on offense.
Matheson is a bit under the radar and could help the Panthers by solidifying the second pairing. That pairing really needs more offense and he’s the more gifted one, as he outscored Pysyk 27 to 16. The Panthers should explore trading for Erik Karlsson because he’s the kind of guy who could save their defense.
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Power Play
Stop me if you’ve heard this one – the Panthers had a below average power play last season (21st with an 18.44 percent conversion rate). Florida has never been overwhelming there and it’s something that needs to change. They’re a pretty impressive team at five-on-five, but still, having even a league average power play would give them a huge boost.
Last season, the Panthers had 47 power play goals. The league average power play converted on 20.18 percent of their chances. That would have given the Panthers three extra goals, which is roughly equal to a win. Guess what Florida missed the playoffs by? You guessed it, one win.
Season Prediction
The Florida Panthers came a point short of making an amazing postseason run last season. Here’s the big question – which team is this season’s team going to resemble? The one who struggled out of the gate? Or the one that set the league on fire in the second half. My guess is it’s closer to the latter than the former.
Their forwards are going to be great. If they can fix their power play (easier said than done), I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers finish in the top 10 in goals scored. Hoffman should give them the dynamic goal scorer their top six forwards really needed.
That said, their defense is going to be an issue. The Panthers forwards can only do so much to help them out. It’s time for their blueliners to give their forwards some help. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Panthers aggressive in the trade market as they try to solve a glaring weakness.
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The Panthers are going to be very close to being a playoff team. I’d lean towards them making the postseason because they have enough top notch talent to get there. But there are no excuses from not making the playoffs.