Ottawa Senators: Breaking down the return for Erik Karlsson

The Ottawa Senators have traded their best player, defenseman Erik Karlsson. Let’s break down the return that they got for their two-time Norris Trophy winner.

It has finally happened. The entire NHL knew it was happening and it still took everyone by surprise. Yes, the Ottawa Senators have traded their two-time Norris Trophy-winning defenseman and captain Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks.

Because the Sharks didn’t care about an extension, it wasn’t included in the trade. This perhaps explains why the return wasn’t the great return the Senators should have sought. But let’s take a look at it.

Roster Players

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The best roster player the Senators got for Erik Karlsson is forward Chris Tierney. He put up a career-high 40 points last season in a third-line role for the Sharks. Tierney was their sixth most used forward at even strength last season. Fifth most if you exclude Evander Kane.

If you’re looking for a bright side, only seven of his points came on the power play. Four of them came on the penalty kill. Still, Tierney doesn’t have a strong influence on possession and has regularly been the owner of a negative five-on-five relative CorsiFor percentage and GoalsFor percentage. He’s a decent third-line option who could be a fringe second line option if his production improves.

Dylan DeMelo is a 25-year-old defenseman who should be able to hold down a regular second or third pairing role for the Senators. He might be a late bloomer, but that’s never a good assumption to make. What he is right now is likely the best he has to offer.

DeMelo’s passing is a bit underrated, as he managed 20 assists despite averaging a shade over 14 minutes per game in 63 games. Three of those assists came on the power-play, but I’m not sold he’s a good option there. DeMelo has proven to be better at suppressing shots than driving offense. He’s definitely an NHL guy. Just nothing special. What’s odd is the Senators literally could have signed him earlier this summer.

Prospects

The roster players in this deal weren’t great. But the Senators are getting two quality prospects in return, which is a good sign. The crown jewel of the deal is Josh Norris, a 2017 first round pick. At Michigan last season, he posted 23 points in 37 games. But keep in mind Michigan had a stacked team and Norris should see more minutes this season. Which should lead to more points.

I’d say his best skill is his playmaking. Figures the Sharks would draft someone like that, huh? Anyway, Norris’ skating is above-average, but it doesn’t blow me away. That’s something prospects usually don’t develop too much. Norris has the ceiling of a second line center. Potentially a first line center if he can iron out the wrinkles in his defensive game. But Norris is a guy worth getting excited about.

Rudolfs Balcers is the second prospect. He picked up 77 points in 66 games in his first North American season (2016-17 in the WHL). Balcers was one of the San Jose Barracuda’s best players last year with 23 goals and 48 points in 65 games. He added four points in four games in the Calder Cup Playoffs.

Balcers is pretty close to being NHL ready and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a shot on the Senators at some point. His defensive game is a work in progress, but his work with the puck might be irresistible for Ottawa.

Draft Picks

First of all, hats off to Senators general manager Pierre Dorion. He found a way to trade a two-time Norris Trophy-winning defenseman to one of the few teams who (likely) won’t have a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks already owe theirs (assuming it’s not a lottery pick and there’s a 99.9 percent chance it won’t be one) to the Buffalo Sabres because that was a condition for the Evander Kane trade.

So the Senators are entering a rebuild with zero first-round picks in 2019. Their first-round pick is going to be a very high one and it’s a real possibility their pick will be the first overall one. Obviously, this can change and the Senators could easily get one for Mark Stone and/or Matt Duchene.

Let’s get to the 2020 second-round pick. The Sharks got a second-round pick from the Florida Panthers for their role serving as the middle man in an inadvertent three-way trade involving Mike Hoffman. Yes, the same guy who played for the Senators.

Ottawa will get one of the two (whichever is lower). Chances are, that’s going to be the Panthers pick. Hats off to Sharks general manager Doug Wilson, that’s expert trolling. This is probably why the Senators wanted a condition regarding Karlsson going to an Eastern Conference team.

Now, the Sharks might re-sign Karlsson. If they do, the Senators get an extra second-round pick in 2021. This improves to a first-round pick if the Sharks make the Stanley Cup Final in 2019.

Review

That’s one heck of an underwhelming return for the best defenseman since Nicklas Lidstrom. Even if you factor in the lack of an extension, the Senators got two underwhelming roster players, two non-elite prospects (better known as mystery boxes), a 2020 first-round pick, and a 2020 second-round pick. Draft picks are just a fancy way of saying “magic beans”.

If the Sharks re-sign Karlsson and/or make it to the Stanley Cup Final, that makes it a bit more bearable because then the Senators get three magic beans instead of two. But that’s still a horrible return. The Senators rebuild is off to a disappointing start. And if the Karlsson trade is an omen of what’s to come, it’s going to be a while before Ottawa is known as the home of a competitive NHL team.