Buffalo Sabres signing Reinhart short-term could lead to long-term regret

While signing Sam Reinhart to a two-year deal makes a lot of sense for the Buffalo Sabres right now, it could hurt them in the long run.

After another disappointing season, the Buffalo Sabres had a long offseason. It was filled with change and some solid moves by general manager Jason Botterill, which gives the city of Buffalo some long overdue optimism.

Young forward Sam Reinhart is a huge reason for said optimism, as he finished last season with an extremely impressive post-All-Star Break surge. After posting just 20 points in 49 games before the break, he accumulated an eye-popping 30 points in his last 33 games, including 17 points in his last 18.

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Reinhart showed the top-end skill the Sabres expected from him when they drafted him with the second overall pick of the 2014 NHL Draft. He has been far from a bust, but he’s struggled a bit with consistency, as many young players do.

Botterill spent most of the summer negotiating with Reinhart, as he was a restricted free agent for the first time in his career. A long-term deal wasn’t in the cards, but the Sabres finally got him inked to a short-term deal. The contract is for two years and has a cap hit of $3.65 million per year.

This is a “show me” contract for both sides. Reinhart wasn’t going to sign a long-term deal unless it paid him a lot of money per year. He’s effectively betting on himself improving over the next two seasons and proving he’s unquestionably worth a long-term commitment. That bet could pay off handsomely for him.

Reinhart has three consecutive seasons with at least 40 points and hit the 50 point milestone for the first time in his career in 2017-18. He also set a career high with 25 goals, giving him his second season with at least 20 goals. Reinhart’s shots per game rates have been steadily going up, which is an encouraging sign.

His playing time with Jack Eichel on the top line likely won’t change. Reinhart is efficient with him and adding either Jeff Skinner or Conor Sheary to that line should make him even more productive. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him have a true breakout season during his two-year deal.

Which brings us to the Sabres. Buffalo is asking to see more of second-half Reinhart before giving him a long-term commitment. In a vacuum, the Sabres got a fantastic price for him. It’s fair to question if Buffalo should have signed him to a long-term deal given their rather favorable cap situation, but getting him signed and on the ice were the top two priorities for the Sabres. This deal takes care of them. As far as the short-term, it works magnificently for the Sabres.

However, could Buffalo have some long-term regret? That’s part of the risk the Sabres are taking by not signing Reinhart long-term. It’s best to sign players to long-term deals just before they break out because it’s much more expensive to sign them to long-term deals after they’ve proven themselves. This might not be an option with Reinhart in two years.

Keep in mind it’s not like Buffalo is hurting for cap space. They’ve got heaps of it moving forward. Linus Ullmark isn’t going to require much next year. Rasmus Dahlin and Casey Mittelstadt might in three years, but the salary cap ceiling should be higher by then. Even if you factor in a likely extension for Skinner, that leaves more than enough money to sign Reinhart long-term.

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It’s easy to understand why the Sabres went with a short-term deal for Reinhart. The two sides simply couldn’t agree to a long-term deal. Reinhart’s two-year deal gives both sides something they both desired – more time. But you can’t help but wonder if, two years from now, the Sabres will be kicking themselves for not signing him to a long-term deal. Then again, that’s a problem Buffalo would love to have.

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