Columbus Blue Jackets: Panarin and Bobrovsky decisions will shape future

Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are two very prominent potential free agents for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Do they sign long-term, or should the Jackets cut bait?

The Columbus Blue Jackets are in a little bit of a tough spot right now. The team finished last season with a record of 45-30-7, good for 97 points, and the top Eastern Conference wild-card spot.

They were just one point behind the Philadelphia Flyers for third place in the Metropolitan and just three points behind the Pittsburgh Penguins for second place. However, they were tied with the New Jersey Devils for the second wild-card spot and one point ahead of Florida, who missed the playoffs. It goes without saying that they were on the playoff bubble for most of last season.

More from Puck Prose

• Detroit Red Wings 2023 Rookie Camp Has Plenty of Ups and Downs
• This Columbus Blue Jackets rookie doesn’t want to be forgotten
• 2 trades the Boston Bruins must make to secure the Stanley Cup
• 3 reasons the Avalanche won’t win the Stanley Cup in 2024
• This is a big year for Alex Turcotte and the Los Angeles Kings

With a strong, young foundation, the Jackets mostly stood pat during the summer, picking up just Riley Nash and Anthony Duclair, both guys who figure to be bottom-six forwards. They re-signed coach John Tortorella for two years and cut ties with long-time defenseman Jack Johnson, among others.

It seems Columbus GM Jarmo Kekalainen was pretty satisfied with where his team is in terms of contention. That said, he has a couple of big time decisions to make in the very near future, regarding perhaps their two best players, Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Both players are in similar situations coming into the season and both cases will be interesting going forward.

Let’s look at Panarin first. The young Russian forward spent his first two NHL seasons with Chicago, putting up 61 goals and 151 points while missing just two games and picked up a Calder trophy along the way. He mostly played with Patrick Kane and didn’t look out of place.

He was then traded to the Jackets for Brandon Saad in a blockbuster trade and continued his production. He had 55 assists, 82 points, a high plus-minus rating (+23), 228 shots on net, leading the team in all of those categories aside from shots on net (he was just 21 behind Seth Jones).

Panarin has one year left of his contract, and has previously set a deadline for signing an extension at September 13 (according to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic). This leads us to believe that he’s going to market next summer, and holds all the cards in his negotiations.

Bobrovsky finds himself in a similar situation. The best cop on the force has been a mainstay in the Blue Jackets’ crease for the better part of the last six seasons, winning two Vezina trophies along the way.

He has a .923 save percentage over his time with Columbus, a 2.37 goals against average, and can be called the single reason the Jackets have been as good as they are on many nights. It’s sometimes difficult to truly grade goalies against players in terms of value, but it’s plain to see that Bobrovsky is extremely important for the Jackets.

Bobrovsky is 30 years old now and goalies often peak around their early 30’s. He’s also in a contract year and can demand a huge contract when the time comes. He does have a no-move clause right now, though, which can tie the hands of GM Kekalainen when decision time comes around.

The Blue Jackets have just two unrestricted free agents after this season (Panarin and Bobrovsky). They also don’t have a ton of big restricted free agents to sign, mainly stud blue-liner Zach Werenski. The Jackets don’t have too many bad contracts, looking at their situation, but Brandon Dubinsky is not helping things, being on the payroll for $5.85 million for each of the next three years.

They have about $50 million locked up for 2019-20, with nine restricted free agents including Werenski, who will deservedly get money thrown at him. This means that money may be tight if they do want to sign everyone for what they are worth (unless the cap goes up, which we never know until it does).

So now that the table is set, what can we expect the Jackets to do? Similar players to Artemi Panarin have made north of $7 million per season long term, with James van Riemsdyk and Evander Kane just getting those figures on long term deals. Bobrovsky is currently the third highest cap hit for goalies, and hasn’t done anything to disprove his value. A fair comparison is Henrik Lundqvist, who has a $8.5 million cap hit on a long term deal signed in the stone age (it seems).

The pair together could be worth in excess of $16 million against the cap, and both deserve contracts at least six years in length. Neither seem to want to talk extension during the season, and the Blue Jackets may be a bubble team in a tight division, with possible cap issues in the future. What is there to do?

There is reason to believe that the Jackets can go all in on this season, throw caution to the wind, and keep them around for a major playoff push. The team is certainly good enough to make it in a Metropolitan division that’s wide open, especially considering the core of the team is very young.

On the flip side, things can start to sour quickly, necessitating trades so as to not lose them for nothing. One or two mid-season injuries to the wrong players can torpedo a season in a heartbeat. Another factor is the depth of the division. Washington and Pittsburgh are perennial contenders, Philadelphia and New Jersey are on the upswing, and Carolina seems to have improved on paper as well. Florida can also be a factor in a potential wild card race. They can still do everything right and be on the outside looking in.

This may end up being the biggest question coming into the season, and the game plan is certainly up in the air. Depending on how the season goes will in all likelihood dictate what the Jackets do with their two stars. Considering the current situation, this question will be looming over Columbus’ heads until right around the trade deadline.

My prediction? The Jackets probably hit a bump in the road, and are in a similar situation to the Islanders last season with John Tavares, and are possibly forced to shop as sellers at the deadline. Considering the margin of error in their situation, and it is minuscule, any possible obstacle can mean the season to them. The same can be said with any of Philadelphia, New Jersey, Florida, and Carolina, though. But with Columbus’ situation with their top players and salary cap, it means that much more.

The situation is extremely fickle, and is subject to change multiple times between now and late February. Get your popcorn ready.