New York Islanders preview: Mathew Barzal leads group of misfits
Mathew Barzal will lead the New York Islanders’ group of misfits. But will adding Barry Trotz to the coaching staff be enough to turn the tides of the franchise?
Back in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, it was cool to be a fan of the New York Islanders. They won four straight Stanley Cups from 1979 to 1983 and nearly won a fifth in 1984. Unfortunately, it has been nothing but stormy weather for them since then. Though Mathew Barzal certainly gives them hope, they haven’t even made a Conference Final in 25 years.
A large part of this has been lacks of direction and accountability within the organization. Those days are over now. The addition of Lou Lamoriello to the front office and Barry Trotz to the coaching staff give the Islanders the structure they have long desired. I’m not sold Lou’s the right choice for general manager, but it’s hard to argue with his resume.
Trotz will be asked to perform his second organizational rescue after leading the Washington Capitals to their first Stanley Cup. He joined them after the 2013-14 season, which was a very dark time for the franchise. Trotz immediately turned them into Stanley Cup contenders.
Though he has experience turning around organizations, the Islanders will be a much tougher team to turn around than the Capitals. For one, Trotz had Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, Mike Green, and Braden Holtby (among others) in his first season in Washington. With the Islanders, Barzal, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, and Nick Leddy are his only sure things.
Trotz will be asked to overhaul a defensive system that failed miserably. Merely fixing that should give the Islanders a fighting chance, even in a tough Metropolitan Division. The Isles will need a ton of things to go right for them to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs, but the addition of Trotz suggests maybe their luck has changed.
Projected Lineup
For a variety of reasons, the New York Islanders lineup was very hard to project. But let’s take a look at how things will most likely pan out. Additions are noted in italics (and there are a lot of them).
Forwards
Anthony Beauvillier – Mathew Barzal – Jordan Eberle
Anders Lee – Brock Nelson – Josh Bailey
Kieffer Bellows – Jan Kovar – Josh Ho-Sang
Leo Komarov – Casey Cizkikas – Cal Clutterbuck
Extra forward candidates: Matt Martin, Valtteri Filppula, Ross Johnston, Tom Kuhnhackl, Steve Bernier
Injury list: Andrew Ladd
Once Ladd is healthy, that should shake up the lineup. But I’ll be honest – I’m not sure that’s necessarily a good thing. Why? Because the guy Ladd will likely replace is Kieffer Bellows, who’s a very talented young forward. This sums up the Islanders. They are (or at least should be) a rebuilding team, yet their lineup isn’t as young as one would expect.
Barzal will likely see his line get promoted to top line duties, though Lee and Beauvillier might swap places at some point. With Barzal’s playmaking and creativity, he would benefit from having a goal who can score at an impressive rate with him. That description fits Lee perfectly.
The second line is a bit odd. On paper, you’ve got three at worst solid forwards. But if Nelson’s at center, I’m not sure Lee is the best left wing for him. Beauvillier would be a better fit, in my opinion. He’s a better playmaker.
That third line is fascinating because it will (technically) feature three rookies, even if Kovar (28 years old) is a bit older than most rookies. Ho-Sang has his issues defensively, but his creativity and playmaking are off the charts. Both of those are things the Islanders lack in their lineup. Bellows has been very solid in the preseason.
Most Islanders fans will probably sign up for only having one fourth line. Cizikas and Clutterbuck are locked in their roles. The final left wing spot is between Martin and Komarov. I’m not huge on either one, but give me Komarov.
This is probably the Islanders optimal lineup.
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Defense
Nick Leddy – Johnny Boychuk
Devon Toews – Scott Mayfield
Extra defensemen candidates: Adam Pelech, Luca Sbisa (PTO), Dennis Seidenberg (PTO), Sebastian Aho
Once again, the Islanders should try to go young here. Leddy isn’t nearly as bad as he was last season. Boychuk has looked surprisingly decent in preseason games, but he’s on the wrong side of 30.
Hickey is a solid defensive defenseman, but doesn’t bring enough to the table on offense by himself. That’s why the Islanders have been putting Pulock with him. Under Jack Capuano and Doug Weight, he didn’t get the chances he deserved. Expect this to change under Trotz.
Toews has been terrific in the preseason and is definitely ready for a third pairing role. Now, will he get it? I’m not so sure. But Islanders fans should be hoping Toews is somewhere other than the AHL or in the press box.
Goaltending
When I had my first car (an early 1990’s Toyota), I obsessed over it. I think I waxed it three times in my first two months. My dad saw me waxing my car the third time. He came out and told me, “Son, you can’t polish [crap]”. He didn’t use crap, but you can probably guess which word he used.
Why did I tell that story? Because it sums up how I feel about the Isles’ goaltending. While the Islanders have Mitch Korn on their staff now, there’s only so much he can do. He will certainly help Lehner and Greiss develop, but how much is it really going to help? Both have struggled lately and neither has been an above-average starter for a meaningful length of time.
Strengths
Young Talent
I’m not sure how much of their young talent will get chances, but the New York Islanders greatest strength lies in their youth. Barzal won the Calder Trophy and even though I think he takes a step back this season, it will be more due to teams being able to hone in on limiting him. He should still flirt with averaging a point per game. Beauvillier quietly had a very solid rookie season, posting 21 goals and 36 points.
Ho-Sang and Bellows are intriguing guys. The former is approaching the point where he’s no longer a prospect, but if Trotz is willing to be patient with him, the Islanders could have a gem. Bellows put up 74 points in 57 games in the WHL last season and was a star for the United States in the WJC. On the defensive end, Pulock and Toews are ready for regular NHL jobs.
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The Trotz Effect
Trotz should help the Islanders improve. Even without Tavares, I think the Isles should be better than they were last season. The Islanders were a team that was more unlucky than bad last season, though they certainly had moments when they showed they were the latter. Trotz should clean up the Isles’ defensive issues and penalty kill woes.
I’m not saying the Islanders will make the postseason, but they’re going to be in the hunt until at least mid-March. Potentially even later than that.
Weaknesses
Offense From Defense
Trotz is going to clean things up defensively for the New York Islanders. But I’m not optimistic he has the talent required to get much from his defense. Leddy is a great point producer, but he’s the only lock there. Pulock has done great while sheltered, but how well will he do without his training wheels?
I’m also not sold on that third pairing. If Toews is on it, it should be fine. But here’s the problem. Trotz is a great coach, but he has issues trusting young defensemen. Keep in mind he fully believed Brooks Orpik, Mike Weber, and Tim Gleason (among others) were better options than Nate Schmidt.
Trotz was also reluctant to trust Christian Djoos last season until he was pretty much forced to. This is concerning considering Toews is one of the few guys who could give the Islanders some much-needed offensive punch from their blueline.
Forward Depth
The Islanders have forward depth. However, it’s not the good kind. Stanley Cup contenders typically have depth as far as skilled forwards. The Islanders don’t. They’re going to rely a lot of Barzal to carry them. That’s not typically a recipe for success.
Season Prediction
The overwhelming opinion appears to be that the New York Islanders will be one of the worst teams in the NHL. However, I’m a bit more optimistic. Coaching was their downfall last season and Trotz is a huge upgrade there. That said, the Islanders will probably end up in what I think is the worst place for a team to be – the 17 to 25 range.
Considering how dreadful last season was, Isles fans will probably take being merely mediocre instead of awful. It would represent a step forward for them. And with some exciting young players on the way, it would give them a bit of confidence.
The Islanders are probably about a season away from truly contending for the playoffs. Even if Trotz manages to fix the defense (and he deserves Jack Adams consideration if he does), their goaltending is likely still going to be among the NHL’s worst.
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Having said all of that, the last time a group of misfits played in the NHL, they made the Stanley Cup Final last season. Not only does this prove nobody knows anything about hockey, it should give Islanders fans some hope. The Isles will need a lot to go their way to make the playoffs, but maybe adding Trotz is enough to get them to sneak on in.