Washington Capitals: Predicting Pheonix Copley’s workload in 2018-19

Pheonix Copley has all but clinched the backup goaltending role in the nation’s capital. What can Washington Capitals fans expect from him?

The Washington Capitals enter the season looking to defend their Stanley Cup championship. Much of the optimism surrounding their team stems from the fact that the majority of the Cup-winning roster has returned for this season.

One of the few exceptions to that, however, is in the backup goaltending spot for Washington. Philipp Grubauer, who had been the second-string goalie for three straight seasons, was traded as a restricted free agent to the Colorado Avalanche during the offseason.

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Grubauer is a promising young goalie who proved to be capable of being a starter during his tenure with the Capitals. However, with Braden Holtby ahead of him in the depth chart, that opportunity was unlikely to come in the nation’s capital.

His well-deserved opportunity elsewhere, though, means that Washington is in a bit of uncharted territory. Since 2015, only Holtby and Grubauer have suited up in net for the Capitals. Pheonix Copley will, therefore, be the first goalie other than those two to suit up for Washington since Justin Peters in 2014-15.

Not too much has been made of this by the national media. Mainly, perhaps, because Holtby is coming off of a fantastic playoff run where he proved himself to be one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. Besides, he is only a few years removed from his 2015-16 Vezina Trophy win.

To overlook the potential impact of losing Grubauer, on the other hand, could be a mistake. As one probably remembers, Holtby was benched in favor of the younger netminder heading into these last playoffs after a subpar season.

Of course, he quickly earned the starting gig back after Grubauer struggled to start the postseason, and the run Washington went on afterwards cemented his spot in net. Last year was also likely an outlier, as his .907 save percentage last season was by far the worst of his career.

Still, there is reason to believe Copley’s impact this season could be more important than one may think, and Washington Capitals fans should be very interested in how much he can and will play this season.

How Much the Washington Capitals Need Pheonix Copley to Play

This heading may be confusing at first look. Holtby is an all-star, a Vezina-winner, and now a Stanley Cup winner. The team will go as far as their starting goaltender will let them. Why would the Capitals need Copley to play?

The answer is simple: no goalie can play every game, not even Holtby. It is not even necessarily a matter of ability, as many goaltenders would surely play all 82 games if they were asked to. But doing so can be detrimental to the team’s own prospects.

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This goes as much for Holtby as it does for any goaltender. Due to his regular season struggles, he only played in 54 games last season, the fewest of his career by a long shot. Is it a coincidence, then, that his save percentage last postseason was nearly thirty points higher than in 2017?

Now, Holtby’s playoff goaltending numbers do not tell the whole story; after all, he had a .944 save percentage in the 2015 playoffs after playing in 73 games that year. What that number does not show, however, is that Holtby tends to have more and more duds as the playoffs go on.

That year, 2015, his only sub-900 save percentage game came in the second round, just before the Capitals were eliminated. In 2016, he only matched his .942 average for those entire playoffs twice in the six-game second-round series. In 2017, he was subpar throughout.

This past postseason, while he did have some poor performances, he stepped up his game when needed. In fact, in the last two rounds, the Capitals won every game where he had a save percentage above .900, and lost every game where his save percentage was below that mark.

All of this is to say that Holtby, like anybody who has to play so many games in such a short period of time, tends to start strong before tapering off. Because of that, it is important that he gets as much rest as possible during the regular season, while that luxury is still available.

That is where Copley comes in. Because of Grubauer’s strong play last season, the Capitals were able to give Holtby that rest which paid off in the postseason. While his play will likely justify giving him more than 54 games, the question is how much more he should get.

It is difficult to quantify this, but 60 games seems to be a decent threshold. No Stanley Cup-winning goaltender has played more than 60 regular season games since Jonathan Quick in 2012, and he had the help of one of the most dominant defensive teams in recent memory.

The Washington Capitals have a good defense, but not one that can protect a goaltender like that. As such, the Capitals need Copley to be able to play in, at a minimum, 22 games this season. Anything more will be an added boost to the team’s hopes for repeating as champions.

How Much Copley Can Reasonably Play

One of the issues with setting that threshold is that it amounts to nearly one-third of the regular season. Other than Holtby and Grubauer, nobody has played that many games for the Washington Capitals in one season since Tomas Vokoun and Michal Neuvirth in 2012.

Copley himself has played in only two career NHL games, and only started one of them. He has faced a total of 35 NHL shots. He has faced heavier workloads in the AHL but to varying degrees of success, including a .896 save percentage in 41 games in Hershey last year.

So far in the preseason, Copley seems to have exceeded expectations. He was sensational against the St. Louis Blues on September 26, stopping all 42 shots he faced in a shutout victory. The Capitals seem comfortable rolling with him as their backup, having demoted his competition.

Still, 22 NHL games would be a big step up for him, both in terms of workload as well as with regards to the level of competition. It is difficult to see how Copley could have improved enough from last season to expect more than the equivalent of an AHL .896 save percentage.

Unfortunately for Washington, however, the Capitals cannot afford to play Copley in that many games if he has not improved significantly since last season. The Metropolitan Division is one of the most competitive in the NHL and they cannot afford to be handicapped entering games.

Because of that, it is not possible at this stage to justify Copley getting significantly more than the 12 games Peters got in 2014-15 as Holtby’s backup. Peters’s save percentage that season was an atrocious .881, which is not too far off of what Copley had last season in the AHL.

That leaves about a ten game difference between how much Copley should play and how much he needs to play. Those are ten games that can mean a lot come playoff time with regards to how effective Holtby is. Fortunately for the Capitals, there may be a solution.

What About the Competition?

It was mentioned briefly earlier that the Washington Capitals had demoted Pheonix Copley’s competition for the backup role to the AHL. That competition has a name, one that has been mentioned among the best goaltending prospects in world recently: Ilya Samsonov.

Washington’s first-round pick from 2015, Samsonov has finally made his way over to North America after some stellar seasons in the KHL. While there is plenty of hype surrounding him, he has been sent to Hershey to adapt further to the North American game.

The Capitals have done everything right when it comes to Samsonov so far, and giving him regular playing time with the Bears is the best decision for his development. However, if Copley does not pan out, Samsonov could find himself on the NHL roster soon enough.

If Washington is wary of bringing him up too early, there are some other intriguing options as well. Vitek Vanecek has spent a few seasons in the system now, although he struggled in Hershey last season as well while splitting time with Copley.

Another path worthy of exploration, however, would be to look at the free agent market. It is relatively thin on goaltenders right now, but Kari Lehtonen and Steve Mason both have a lot of experience and could be reliable backups if needed.

The point is that the Capitals have options if they do end up needing to replace Copley. In a tight division, they do not have the luxury of seeing if he can improve, and when push comes to shove, a move like this could become a necessity.

Prediction

Overall, while I would love to see Pheonix Copley get at least those 22 games and play well in them, the more likely scenario that I would expect is that he gets somewhere around 15, and is replaced as backup by Ilya Samsonov towards the end of the season at the latest.

Even so, the Washington Capitals have a great team capable of winning another Stanley Cup. Those chances would be higher, though, if Copley can prove himself to be a capable backup. If so, the Capitals will once again be the team to beat come playoff time.