Pittsburgh Penguins: Matt Murray is the Difference this Season

Pittsburgh Penguins goalie Matt Murray didn’t live up to expectations last season, leading to an early summer for the Pens

Matt Murray wasn’t good last season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The 24-year-old goaltender, who had previously won his fame by winning two Stanley Cups in his first two seasons, wasn’t the same throughout all of last year.

His sub-.910 save percentage continued into the playoffs, where the Penguins were ultimately dispatched by, embarrassingly enough, the Washington Capitals. Much of the difference between the Stanley Cup Champion Penguins and the 2017-18 Penguins can be attributed to Murray.

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This truth is especially stinging, considering what the Pens sacrificed for him. Marc-Andre Fleury ventured to his third straight Stanley Cup Finals (albeit with a larger role) with the Vegas Golden Knights last season, only to be defeated by the same Capitals.

In fairness, Murray did pick up a concussion in February, missing a month of hockey. His play, however, was nearly identical during the postseason. It’s hard to know what sort of effect this had on him.

Regardless of the cause, Murray clearly witnessed significant decline, and the Penguins will need some sort of solution this season.

How Goaltending Killed The Penguins

It really is incredible how such a tiny-looking change in save percentage can make such a huge different over the course of a season. In fact, if Murray had posted average numbers, the Penguins might’ve gone on another Stanley Cup run.

The difference between Murray’s .920 save percentage in 2017 and his .907 save percentage in 2018 may not seem significant. On a test score, it may be rounded to 92% and 91% respectively. When every goal matters as much as it does, however, an extra .001 percent can be pivotal.

Pittsburgh is a deep team. They’re built around a fantastic offense and an unfairly underrated defense. While the offense remained about the same, and the defense improved last season, Murray was a huge reason why the Penguins weren’t as good.

He faced a total of 1423 shots last season, stopping 1290 of them. So, Murray allowed 133 goals. See how rapidly this number changes when his save percentage is compared to 2016-17.

If he had recorded a .923 save percentage, he would have stopped 1313 shots. As you quick counters out there may have noticed, that’s a difference of 23 goals. 23 fewer goals allowed brings the Penguins’ goal differential from +22 to +45.

This would almost certainly be enough to pass the Capitals, giving them the Metro title. Even an average save percentage would bring Pittsburgh to a +29. This goes on to suggest something else.

Going into this season

When people think of the Pens, particularly when they win a Cup, they always think about Crosby, Malkin, Letang and even Guentzel now. This is why this season was so surprising for Pittsburgh.

The truth is, Murray’s contributions have been overlooked. He was starting to get his due attention, sure, but no one really thought of him when thinking about the Penguins. At least I didn’t.

That shining rookie seen before last season, was a large part of the Penguins’ Cup runs. Few things can help a team out more than a .920 goalie, and that’s who he was. This season, Pittsburgh would be a lot better off with that version of Murray.