Washington Capitals: With Tom Wilson Suspension, Quantity Matters

Tom Wilson will be suspended for his latest objectionable hit. How many games will he get, and how could this be a blessing for the Washington Capitals?

When the Washington Capitals raise their Stanley Cup banner on Opening Night, Tom Wilson will not be on the ice with them. When they travel to Pittsburgh the next night, he will not be playing then either.

In fact, there is a very good chance that Wilson will not see any playing time until after Halloween at the earliest. His latest questionable hit on Oskar Sundqvist has led to speculation about a very long suspension, especially considering his reputation as a repeat offender.

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What makes this hit even more egregious than his other ones, perhaps, is how blatant it was. This was not like his hit on Zach Aston-Reese in the playoffs, which led to a three-game suspension, where height difference and various angles led to disagreements on its legality.

Sundqvist is only one inch shorter than Wilson, so that point is moot here. The hit took place in the preseason, so emotion is not an excuse. Most incriminating of all, it was eerily similar to the kinds of hits Scott Stevens made famous, which the NHL has tried to eliminate from the game.

The NHL is working to make the game safer by eliminating those Stevens-esque hits, and rightfully so. Sundqvist should have done more to protect himself in that situation. However, it does not excuse Wilson going up high like that. Had he hit the shoulder, there would be nothing to discuss.

Because of all of these factors, Wilson’s suspension will be an issue of “how much,” not “if.” He will have an in-person hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Wednesday, which is required for any suspension over six games.

If a playoff game is considered to be worth as much as two regular season games, the aforementioned Aston-Reese suspension would have essentially been six games. Because of that, Wilson is likely looking at double-digits for this suspension at the very least.

This would be a big blow to the start of the season for his Washington Capitals, who signed him to a 6 year, 31 million dollar contract before the season. They were counting on him taking the next step and being a factor on the first line, as he proved he could be during these last playoffs.

How many games is Tom Wilson likely going to be suspended for, and how can he and the Washington Capitals make the most out of this situation? This is my take on both of those questions.

The NHL Has Created its Own Constraints

Tom Wilson is not very popular outside of the nation’s capital, and even most Washington Capitals fans agree that this latest hit deserves a lengthy suspension. It does not need to be said that anything less than ten games will draw the ire of hockey fans around the league.

That being said, some of the speculation has been overblown. The most a player has received for continuously hitting too high was Matt Cooke‘s 17-game suspension in 2011, and he had a much longer history by then. Raffi Torres also got a 41 game suspension, but that was for far worse than what Wilson did.

Even setting aside that precedent, there are other constraints the league itself has, perhaps unknowingly, placed on the maximum number of games Wilson can get for a hit like this. In other words, the fans calling for a 20-game suspension to “send a message” will likely be disappointed.

One of the reasons the number 20 has come up is because that is the amount of games Nate Schmidt of the Vegas Golden Knights will have to sit for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. The NHL really did not have much flexibility here, as the 20 games is explicit in the rules.

Naturally, the question has come up as to whether having a minuscule amount of drugs in the body is worse than catching somebody with a hit to the head, an action that can cause concussions and other medical issues that can have long-lasting effects.

Of course, that is a very one-sided way to look at this comparison; Nate Schmidt cheated, whether or not it was intentional. Wilson’s hit, while dirty, was made during the flow of the game, and that alone has to mean it is not as bad as taking illegal substances.

Even if one believes that Wilson deserves at least 20 games for the hit, the problem is that a separate issue quickly puts a cap on how high that total can rise. That issue is named Austin Watson of the Nashville Predators.

Watson was suspended for 27 games (one-third of the season) after pleading no contest to a domestic violence charge over the offseason. It is the fourth-longest suspension in NHL history, and the longest since Raffi Torres‘s 41-gamer in 2015.

There is absolutely no way Wilson deserves anything remotely close to that amount. The allegations against Watson are so heinous that 27 games is pretty much the absolute cap for any suspendable infraction, and it may be years before anything warrants that punishment.

As such, those hoping that Wilson will be suspended for anything close to 20 of the Washington Capitals’ games will be sorely disappointed. My prediction would be between 10 and 15 games, and probably closer to the lower side of that range.

The Silver Lining for the Washington Capitals

The worst part about this suspension for the Washington Capitals is that Tom Wilson has proven himself to be a reliable top-six forward. His ability to create space for Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov makes him a valuable asset for the team in its quest to repeat as champions.

Wilson is not easily replaceable by any means, which is why this suspension could almost be a blessing in disguise for the team. If the Washington Capitals found themselves in this situation at the end of the season or in the playoffs, getting through his absence would be much tougher.

This suspension happening instead at the start of the season gives the team the opportunity to rally strong regardless of what happens now. There will be plenty of season left once Wilson comes back to mount another run for the division and a high playoff seed.

Another reason why this could be good for the Capitals, as well as for Wilson, going forward, is that a lengthy suspension now will send a message to the player that he must adapt his game or risk even harsher discipline in the future.

Ideally, Wilson would have learned that lesson after the suspension in the playoffs, especially considering how much money he will be paid with his new contract. Obviously he has been reticent to do so, but that will have to change after a 10+ game suspension.

Of course, the trick for Wilson will be to tone down his physical play without sacrificing his two-way capabilities, which to this date have been predicated on said physicality. The good news is that the more games he has to sit for, the more time he has to make that change.

Overall, Wilson will most likely have to sit somewhere around 10 games to start the year, and will miss approximately the first month of the season. Although some may believe that is too lenient, it is the most appropriate based on the precedent.

This is obviously not the situation the Washington Capitals wanted to find themselves in as the season started. But if it had to happen, it is preferable that it happened now than that it happened later on in the season, when the consequences could have been more severe.

Regardless of whatever happens next, one can hope that the eventual outcome of this entire saga is a new Tom Wilson, one that can live up to his potential as a difference-maker without crossing the line again. Because next time this happens, the punishment will only be more severe.