NHL Season Preview: Teams and Trends
NHL teams are businesses just like normal companies, and trend up or down over the course of time. Where does your team trend coming into the 2018-19 season?
One of the more fun things to do before the season is to write up your season predictions, predicting everything from Stanley Cup winners to award winners and trades. Then, as the season unfolds, keep it handy and review it constantly to see how wrong you really were. Then, at about the All-Star Break, rip it up in frustration, as the point of keeping it around simply vanishes due to how wrong you got it.
Here’s another wacky prediction post that I’m sure you’re sick of by now. What I’m going to do to try and set this apart from any other prediction post is to split the 31 NHL teams into tiers, and identify in which direction they are trending. This way, my predictions are vague enough to be right toward the end of the year, and I won’t have to tear it apart come January due to me getting it very, very wrong.
I’ll still be wrong, I’ll find a way.
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The way this will work is simple. We’ll go through each tier, team by team within that tier. We’ll see how they did last year, in what direction they are trending, and what happened this past calendar year to cause this trend. This, in a way, will give us a prediction that’s vague, but not too vague.
The tiers are divided up as such:
Tier 1: Elite Tier – These are the creme de la creme of NHL teams coming into this year. These are the teams you’ll likely be talking about into May and June.
Tier 2: Bubble In Tier – These teams have what it takes to make it to the playoffs, but there does exist doubt whether they will be good enough to advance far, or even make the dance at all.
Tier 3: Bubble Out Tier – These teams are scratching on the surface of the playoff picture, but aren’t quite there, for one reason or another.
Tier 4: The Charlie Kelly Tier – These teams are complete wild cards. There are fundamental questions with these teams that can land them anywhere between playoff contention and lottery contention.
Tier 5: Tier of the Tank – These teams will be irrelevant by December, save for a couple of days in late February when they sell off their good players to better teams and become even worse.
Disclaimer, I can and probably will be wrong with at least a couple of teams here. That’s the point of predictions, remember?
Elite Tier
Boston Bruins
Last Season: 50-20-12 (112 points), Eliminated by Tampa Bay in 2nd Round
Summer Changes: Lost two guys who’s name started with Ri and ended in Nash (Rick and Riley), Nick Holden, and Anton Khudobin. In return, they signed defenseman John Moore for far too long.
Trending: Steady
The Bruins are one of those teams that seem to be in contention every year. They didn’t need to make many moves, with their core as strong as ever. Young players like Charlie McAvoy, Jake DeBrusk, and Danton Heinen are coming into their own. They’ll be just fine, and should be around until late in the playoffs.
Nashville Predators
Last Season: 53-18-11 (117 points), Eliminated by Winnipeg in 2nd Round
Summer Changes: None of consequence.
Trending: Steady
The Predators are coming off a President’s Trophy and were just one game away from the Western Conference Final. They have one of the top defense corps in the league and a very solid and deep team at the front. Goaltender Pekka Rinne may have been the only reason Nashville bowed out last year and he’s backed up by the up and coming Juuse Saros. Nothing to worry about in Nashville.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Last Season: 47-29-6 (100 points), Eliminated by Washington in 2nd Round
Summer Changes: Salary dumped Matt Hunwick on Buffalo, costing them Conor Sheary, lost Tom Kuhnhackl to the Islanders, and signed Jack Johnson to a five-year deal for some reason.
Trending: Steady
Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin still run the show. Phil Kessel still scores goals in buckets. Nothing new to see here, though my guess is that they’ll get a good chance for revenge on the Capitals this spring. If Matt Murray stays healthy, they’ll be just fine.
San Jose Sharks
Last Season: 45-27-10 (100 points), Eliminated by Vegas in 2nd Round
Summer Changes: A bunch of swing and misses until they hit a home run landing Erik Karlsson for Chris Tierney, Dylan Demelo, prospects and picks.
Trending: Up
The Sharks’ window of contention was closing ever slightly, with Joe’s Pavelski and Thornton getting older and creakier. In comes Evander Kane and Erik Karlsson, and the window is immediately thrust wide open yet again. They’ll be contenders late into the spring, unless some funny business finds it’s way into the locker room.
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Tampa Bay Lightning
Last Season: 54-23-5 (113 points), Eliminated by Washington in Conference Finals
Summer Changes: Couldn’t afford any, then general manager Steve Yzerman stepped down.
Trending: Steady
At the moment, the Lightning have a lethal offense led by Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov, a sturdy defense led by Victor Hedman, and a great goalie in Andrei Vasilevskiy. However, without any changes, they’ll have lots of salary cap issues to work out after giving raises to Kucherov and Ryan McDonaugh, so this may start to effect things. Even still, they are very much contenders now.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Last Season: 49-26-7 (105 points), Eliminated by Boston in First Round
Summer Changes: Clearing out lots of space (James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov, to name a few), just to use it all on John Tavares, which is totally worth it.
Trending: Up
The Leafs were a threat last year, until their underbelly was exposed by Boston’s gritty hockey style. Toronto’s up-tempo offense is now buttressed by Tavares, who will complement Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner well to create a potential top-5 offense in the NHL. The defense may be suspect, but that’s nothing new to goalie Frederik Andersen. They are a couple of quality defensemen away from being truly elite.
Washington Capitals
Last Season: 49-26-7 (105 points), Won Stanley Cup
Summer Changes: Ruined their livers, didn’t care. Also, Jay Beagle left and Philipp Grubauer got traded.
Trending: Steady
Nothing more can be said about the enormity of the party the Capitals experienced after winning their first Cup ever. Now, they have to defeat the dreaded hangover and defend their crown in earnest. The essential parts of the crew return, so there’s no reason they can’t make another run at it.
Winnipeg Jets
Last Season: 52-20-10 (114 points), Eliminated by Vegas in Conference Finals
Summer Changes: Lost Paul Stastny and a few other spare parts.
Trending: Up
After years of being the Thrashers and being bad (the same thing), all the high draft picks and patience is finally paying off on Portage and Main. The Jets are prepared for take off yet again with Patrik Laine, Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and crew. The team looks more or less the same as it did last year, which means they should be good to contend yet again. Many believe the Jets to be the strongest Cup contender.
Bubble In Tier
Calgary Flames
Last Season: 37-35-10 (84 points)
Summer Changes: Signed James Neal, traded for Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin, getting rid of Dougie Hamilton and Michael Ferland in the process. Also signed Derek Ryan and Austin Czarnik.
Trending: Slightly up
The Flames are a sexy pick this year to rebound, after bringing in new talent to reinforce their core of Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan. The defense is quietly good, as is the forward depth. Their biggest question is in goal, with Mike Smith either being really good, really bad, or really injured. The team doesn’t have a great contingency plan for that, but they are still a very good team and ready to get back into the dance.
Colorado Avalanche
Last Season: 43-30-9 (95 points), Eliminated by Nashville in First Round
Summer Changes: Signed Matt Calvert and traded for Philipp Grubauer. Their biggest loss was Blake Comeau.
Trending: Up
After making the playoffs on the last day of the season last year, the Avalanche are back to make sure they have some padding this time around. Nathan Mackinnon proved his worth as best as he ever has, and Mikko Rantanen was a breakout star. The team stayed together, and is ready to keep moving in the right direction.
Florida Panthers
Last Season: 44-30-8 (96 points)
Summer Changes: Traded for Mike Hoffman, nothing else.
Trending: Up
After starting off very slow, the Panthers streaked their way to coming within a point of a playoff berth last season. Alexander Barkov emerged as the best player on the team during games, and not just shootouts (although also that), and Roberto Luongo keeps staving off Father Time somehow. Adding Hoffman only makes them deeper and that much more dangerous. This time, they should make it with room to spare.
Los Angeles Kings
Last Season: 45-29-8 (98 points), Eliminated by Vegas in First Round
Summer Changes: Brought Ilya Kovalchuk back from Russia, lost Tobias Rieder.
Trending: Down
The Kings boasted an MVP caliber performance by Anze Kopitar to lead the team to a playoff spot, only to get swept by Vegas. The team is only getting older, and signing a 35-year-old Kovalchuk doesn’t help that fact, but he can still score, which is something the Kings need desperately. The window is closing, despite Drew Doughty and Jonathan Quick still having plenty of prime left. Gotta get while the gettin’ is good.
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New Jersey Devils
Last Season: 44-29-9 (97 points), Eliminated by Tampa Bay in First Round
Summer Changes: Rentals Patrick Maroon and Michael Grabner left. Not much else to speak of.
Trending: Up
The Devils weren’t supposed to be that good that fast, but buoyed by MVP Taylor Hall’s carrying the team, the Devils made the playoffs for the first time since 2012. Nico Hischier, Will Butcher, and Jesper Bratt are now a year older and have more experience, and that can serve them all greatly this year. Growing pains will still occur, and many pundits don’t see them making it back in. But as I said before, I’m no pundit.
Philadelphia Flyers
Last Season: 42-26-14 (98 points), Eliminated by Pittsburgh in First Round
Summer Changes: Signed James van Riemsdyk. Also coughed up an orange hairball and dressed it in a Flyers jersey.
Trending: Up
The Flyers have a very good up and coming team, centered around Claude Giroux. The prospects they churn out are getting better each year, such as Nolan Patrick, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Ivan Provorov, and will include other names like Travis Sanheim and Phillippe Myers soon enough. Though the problem in Philadelphia is always goaltending, and that keeps them from the elite tier.
St. Louis Blues
Last Season: 44-32-6 (94 points)
Summer Changes: Went shopping, signed Patrick Maroon, Tyler Bozak, and David Perron, and traded for Ryan O’Reilly. Lost Carter Hutton, Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka, and Tage Thompson (and more).
Trending: Steady
Lots of changes on the Blues roster, just a year removed from an elimination on the last day of the season at the hands of Colorado. The O’Reilly trade was massive, and a buy-in to compete in an ultra-tough Central division. The season could very well hinge on which Jake Allen shows up in net, and if Vladimir Tarasenko and Brayden Schenn can carry the scoring again.
Vegas Golden Knights
Last Season: 51-24-7 (109 points), Eliminated by Washington in Stanley Cup Finals
Summer Changes: James Neal, David Perron, and Luca Sbisa left, Paul Stastny and Nick Holden arrived in free agency, and Max Pacioretty came in via trade.
Trending: Steady
To predict that the Golden Knights will be just as successful this year as they were last year is a very tough bet (pun intended). While William Karlsson was brilliant at scoring, it’s not a slam dunk that he’ll repeat. They won’t sneak up on anyone this year, and people will be much better prepared. They’re still a good team, but I don’t know if they’re good for another deep run.
Bubble Out Tier
Buffalo Sabres
Last Season: 25-45-12 (62 points)
Summer Changes: Traded Ryan O’Reilly for Vladimir Sobotka, Patrik Berglund, and Tage Thomspon, traded for Jeff Skinner and Conor Sheary, Signed Carter Hutton, and drafted Rasmus Dahlin.
Trending: Up
The Sabres are approaching the end of a very long rebuild. They made headline moves to restock the fowards, they drafted Rasmus Dahlin to become a cornerstone defender, and are hoping Carter Hutton can shoulder a starter’s load of work in net. It’s a lot to ask, especially in a division with Toronto, Boston, and Tampa Bay. But the worst has passed for Buffalo, and they’ll finally have a team around Jack Eichel to make some noise.
Carolina Hurricanes
Last Season: 36-35-11 (83 points)
Summer Changes: Drafted Andrei Svechnikov, traded Elias Lindholm and Noah Hanifin for Dougie Hamilton and Michael Ferland, traded away Jeff Skinner, signed Calvin de Haan and Petr Mrazek.
Trending: *scratches head*
Tom Dundon is in the process of gutting the organization. They still have a solid defense corps with Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce, and still have Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen to lead the way. But with all the additions and subtractions, it’s unclear whether it was truly an improvement or not. They didn’t address the main problem from last year, being goalies, so that could torpedo the season. The costs may not be worth it for all the changes they made. The goaltending likely keeps them out of the dance.
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Dallas Stars
Last Season: 42-32-8 (92 points)
Summer Changes: Signed Blake Comeau, involved themselves in rumors, did nothing else. Tyler Seguin got a nice new contract though.
Trending: Steady
The Stars are possibly the most top-heavy team in the NHL. The top line of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Alex Radulov is a dynamite scoring line, and possibly the class of the league. John Klingberg also helps pitch in from the back end.
However, the problems exist underneath them. Besides those four, no one scored more than 34 points last season. Additionally, Ben Bishop is only good when healthy, which doesn’t happen as often as the Stars would like. Without depth scoring, this team will be right around where they ended up last season.
Minnesota Wild
Last Season: 45-26-11 (101 points), Eliminated by Winnipeg in First Round
Summer Changes: Nothing much. You’ll see the same team next year, just a year older.
Trending: Down
The Wild’s season effectively ended when Ryan Suter’s ankle nearly exploded in his boot a week before the playoffs. The team meekly surrendered to the Jets, and an off-season of introspection began. The team didn’t do much to improve things, and with their main core declining from age and attrition, but not getting any cheaper, the team is having trouble keeping everything together. They’re still good when healthy, but it’s becoming harder to compete in the rough and tumble central.
The Charlie Kelly Tier
Anaheim Ducks
Last season: 44-25-13 (101 points), Eliminated by San Jose in First Round
Summer Changes: Nothing crazy.
Trending: Down
The Ducks you know about are starting to enter the downswing of their careers. Corey Perry is having a harder time scoring, Ryan Kesler is having a harder time staying on the ice, and Ryan Getzlaf is having trouble with the injury bug as well. However, they also have a budding star in Rickard Rakell, top prospect Sam Steel ready to make a statement, and key players Adam Henrique, Cam Fowler, and Josh Manson all in their prime in front of freshly locked up goalie John Gibson. This team could finish high if everyone stays healthy, or plummet if they don’t.
Arizona Coyotes
Last season: 29-41-12 (70 points)
Summer Changes: Swapped Max Domi for Alex Galchenyuk, signed Michael Grabner, got Hossa’s contract, and gave Oliver Ekman-Larsson a C.
Trending: Up
After a brutal start to last season, the Coyotes had way too much ground to cover to get back into a playoff hunt, but they were not a doormat down the stretch. Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan, and Antti Raanta led a late season charge that showed that they’re to be taken seriously nowadays. They probably won’t make too much noise this year, but with Raanta playing excellent goal when healthy, we don’t know what a full season with him around can bring. It could lead to a big surprise for all we know.
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Chicago Blackhawks
Last season: 33-39-10 (76 points)
Summer Changes: Didn’t sign Scott Foster long-term, signed Chris Kunitz, Cam Ward, and Brandon Manning on the same day, traded Marian Hossa to the Coyotes, and that’s about it.
Trending: Down
Despite the presence of the old guard from the dynasty, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, and Duncan Keith, the Hawks went into a freefall after Corey Crawford’s season succumbed to injury. With a very top heavy salary cap situation, injury trouble, and aging players, the Blackhawks seem to finally be paying their dues for all their winning ways of the past decade. They have a couple of young pieces to look forward to, such as Alex DeBrincat, but if Crawford can’t get back to form, who knows what we’ll get in Chicago.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Last season: 45-30-7 (97 points), Eliminated by Washington in First Round
Summer Changes: Signed Riley Nash and Anthony Duclair, let a few pieces drift.
Trending: Steady
The young core of the Jackets is full of stars, such as Seth Jones, Zach Werenski, and Pierre-Luc Dubois. They have a good supporting cast, and good leadership under coach John Tortorella. Their two best players make them a wild card team, though. Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky are both in contract years, and neither made any move toward signing an extension.
If Columbus can’t get them signed, and if they fall on hard luck before the deadline, they may have to trade the backbone of the team before they lose them for nothing. It’s one of the more intriguing story to monitor as the days go on. If they stay, the team can easily contend. If they are forced out, the team may fall hard.
Edmonton Oilers
Last season: 36-40-6 (78 points)
Summer Changes: Signed Tobias Rieder and Mikko Koskinen, nothing too much else.
Trending: Oilers
The Oilers were so much fun to watch in the playoffs two seasons ago. One would think that with the team mostly intact, and holding the most talented player in the league (Connor McDavid), they’d go right back to where they were.
But, everyone besides McDavid and Leon Draisaitl forgot to show up during the season, and the Oilers returned to the doldrums. The forward group is oozing with young talent, and the defense looks like it can handle itself on paper, and Cam Talbot can be good at times.
With expectations high yet again, who knows what the Oilers would do this season? All we know is mass hysteria will rain down, one way or another.
The Tier of the Tank
Detroit Red Wings
Last season: 30-39-13 (73 points)
Summer Changes: Drafted Filip Zadina, signed Thomas Vanek (again), signed Mike Green (again), signed Jonathan Bernier, lost Henrik Zetterberg to a career-ending back injury.
Trending: Down
We all know the Red Wings aren’t going anywhere soon. Their main issue is their salary cap, which is unusual with a team that’s so close to the bottom of the league. Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, and Danny DeKeyser have to carry a ton of weight to make themselves worth their contracts. Dylan Larkin is worth his deal, for sure.
The Wings are going to get some relief with Zetterberg moving to long term injured reserve, so his money won’t count against the cap, but even still, they won’t be clear of all their issues for a little while. Until then, they’ll be around here. Winning for 25 years makes the law of averages strike with furious wrath.
Montreal Canadiens
Last season: 29-40-13 (71 points)
Summer Changes: Traded Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi, took Tomas Plekanec back from evil Toronto, drafted Jesperi Kotkaniemi, traded Max Pacioretty for Tomas Tatar and Nick Suzuki.
Trending: Ah, heck…
Carey Price was both hurt and not good last year. Shea Weber was hurt, but not bad last year. Without those two, the team crumbled immediately. With Weber not expected back for a couple of months, the dark times may still be dark in Montreal, and with not many immediately helpful moves over the summer, they’ll still be bad this year. Though if Carey Price earns his keep again, and if some of their young talent starts to percolate, this lull may not last as long as we thought. Or it could. It’s Marc Bergevin’s team we’re talking about, after all.
New York Islanders
Last season: 35-37-10 (80 points)
Summer Changes: Lost John Tavares, Calvin de Haan, and Jaroslav Halak, replaced them with Valterri Filppula, Leo Komarov, Tom Kuhnhackl, Robin Lehner, and fan favorite Matt Martin. *cringe*
Trending: Down
The Islanders had a summer to forget. Their franchise player walked away, leaving nothing behind to fill the void. Then, ever reactionary, Lou Lamoriello signed a handful of bottom 6 wingers and a backup goalie to start. Despite having a very steady top 6 with Mat Barzal, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, and Jordan Eberle, and some decent up-and-coming defensemen, such as Ryan Pulock, the team will again bleed goals, and will continue to fall. This is also while having two different home arenas for the next few years. Oh boy.
New York Rangers
Last season: 34-39-7 (77 points)
Summer Changes: Having 3 first round draft picks, I guess?
Trending: Down
The upper management let the fans know that they’re ready to embrace the tank. Thus, the fire sale commenced, and aside from Mats Zuccarello, Marc Staal, and Henrik Lundqvist, the team is mostly comprised of young prospects and players. While it’s good to have those guys around to gain experience, it’ll probably yield in less that favorable results. Lias Andersson and Filip Chytil are both great prospects, but being young, they’ll have lots of growing pains. The hard hats are on in the rebuild on Broadway, but there’s certainly light at the end of the tunnel.
Ottawa Senators
Last season: 28-43-11 (67 points)
Summer Changes: Let’s not.
Trending: Could be worse…
The Senators had a summer from hell, and it hasn’t cooled down despite taking the ice yet. There’s still what to tear down after the roof fell in, so the Senators will be bad for a while. On top of that, their first-round pick this year belongs to Colorado, so the improvement may be a few years away. Let’s not beat the dead horse here.
Next. Week 1 NHL Power Rankings. dark
Vancouver Canucks
Last season: 31-40-11 (73 points)
Summer Changes: Signed Antoine Roussel, Jay Beagle, and Tim Schaller.
Trending: Up
With the addition of Elias Pettersson to accompany Bo Horvat and Brock Boeser to the youngster pool the Canucks are building, there’s actually some fun hockey to watch in Vancouver. They still have more kids on the way, such as Quinn Hughes, Olli Juolevi, and Thatcher Demko, so the future is looking brighter by the day for the Canucks.
Adding the grit to the bottom six is helpful to keep the youngsters on the ice, but the terms of the contracts were questionable, so head scratching here. But they’ll be good soon. Just not yet.