Ottawa Senators: The mirage of the 2016-17 season

Although the Ottawa Senators are poised for their worst ever season, the state of the team has been similar for quite some time

Making the Eastern Conference Final in 2017 was the worst possible thing that could have happened to fans of the Ottawa Senators. Not only did they suffer the goal, the barrier between them and the Stanley Cup – they were deceived.

That the Senators got as far as they did in 2017 is astonishing. It remains a true testament to just how lucky a team can get in the NHL. To an extent, people were aware of the circumstances.

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Just looking at their roster showed that they were in no position to be contending for a Cup. Well, like it or not, they were going to the playoffs. The new playoff system created the perfect storm for the Senators to perform their magic.

An Atlantic Division which was far out-performed by the Metropolitan Division was a far easier route to the conference finals. The Boston Bruins were a lot better than the Senators, sure, but nowhere near the level of the Metro teams.

Against, not all, but probably most odds, the Senators managed to triumph over the Bruins, and then the New York Rangers, leading to what should have been a rather anti-climactic drubbing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Despite the odds being stacked against them, the Senators prolonged the Eastern Conference Final. They dragged it to seven games, and finally, into overtime. When the laws of probability finally decided to wake up, Chris Kunitz scored the goal to propel the Pens into the Finals, which eventually led to a Stanley Cup victory.

The problem with the Senators wasn’t that they collapsed in OT against the Penguins. It was that they simply never belonged there in the first place.

Last season’s blow

Now, to be fair to the 2016-17 team, they weren’t absolutely terrible. There were bright spots, no doubt. However, the truth is, they really haven’t been a good team in quite a while.

In 2017, the Senators had a goal differential of -2. They allowed two more goals than they scored, and somehow still won the second spot in the Atlantic Division. The Boston Bruins, third in the Atlantic, had a goal differential of +22.

In fact, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning also finished with better goal differentials. Three teams in the Atlantic were better overall, but finished behind the Senators.

Beyond goal differential, the Ottawa’s advanced stats were also miserable. They finished 24th in the league with a team CorsiFor percentage of 48.9 percent. In no world should they have been just one goal away from a Cup Final. This was truly something magical.

But it didn’t start there. In 2015-16, although considerably less horrible than last season, the Senators were still pretty bad. Even ignoring their -11 goal differential, their team CorsiFor percentage has usually been awful.  They were 20th in the league with a CorsiFor percentage of 47.5 percent in 2015-16.

Alright, you get it, the Senators were bad for a bit, so what? Well, the point is, last season wasn’t a change for the Senators; it was an awakening. Sure, their goal differential was a lot worse at -70. Sure, maybe goaltender Craig Anderson fell off a cliff after a magical 2016-17 season. But there’s much more to it than that.

What made last season a million times worse for Ottawa, however, was the denial. A display of complete disregard for their goal stats and corsi led to people thinking that this team had a chance.

For example, when six NHL columnists predicted a  playoff qualification, you can see how Sens fans might have been misled. No, the Ottawa Senators of 2016-17 were a supernatural phenomenon.

And so, when the Senators finished as the thrid worst team in the league, people were a lot more surprised than they should have been. They were a goal away from glory, (well, a superstitious conference trophy that no one wants to touch)  they were miracle workers, but they weren’t and were never contenders.

While their goal differential may have gotten a lot worse, their corsi stayed similar, glaring at them; a metaphor for the curse of external variance. 47.3 percent CorsiFor percentage, the third worst in the NHL.

This season, some will be amazed at how the departure of Erik Karlsson ruins the Senators. Others will just stare in awe, at how far this team has descended. But, these are and always have been the Ottawa Senators.