Carolina Hurricanes: Why they can win the Metropolitan Division

In many ways, the Carolina Hurricanes are a skilled team, but their offensive and defensive talent is unfortunately often overlooked

The Carolina Hurricanes are the weirdest team in the NHL. It sounds silly, but this group, under slightly different circumstances, would easily be capable of contending for a Stanley Cup. Usually, some statistics can be correlated with team success. How many shots does your team take? How many does it allow? And nowadays, you can see how well a team controls puck possession.

In terms of shot differential and possession control, no one was better than the Hurricanes last season. They were held back by a ridiculously low shooting percentage and two struggling goaltenders (Scott Darling and Cam Ward).

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But really, just look at this team’s stats. They should not be missing the playoffs at all. Despite a rather disappointing -28 goal differential, everyone but the goalies did their fair share.

They had 2,780 shots, which was 160 above average. They allowed 2,358 shots where the average was 2609, which was 251 below (or above) average. This is a +422 shot differential. They were also the best team in the league in terms of combined Corsi For percentage.

This puts you in a perfect situation to score a lot and allow only a little. Well, what would the Hurricanes have been like, if just a few more things went their way?

Changing some percentages

To start with, although it had a lesser effect, the Hurricanes had a shooting percentage of 8.1 percent while the average was 9.2. Again, this can make a big difference regardless of how small the difference might seem.

Despite being one of the league leaders is shots for, this shooting percentage prevented the Canes from being a scoring leader, with 228 goals for. Had their shooting percentage been the average 9.2 percent, their goal total goes all the way up to 256.

It is widely accepted that shooting percentage has a very significant luck factor. Some even question the existence of a skill factor. Even a 0.1 percent fluctuation can make a difference.

So, this jump in goals brings the Hurricanes from -28 to a nice neutral 0. Unfortunately, this doesn’t yet change anything. If they had a 0 GD last season, they’d still be four behind the New Jersey Devils, who won the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference.

Then, let’s change up the save percentages too. As tired and old as it must be to hear, Scott Darling didn’t do well last season. The Hurricanes would be a lot better if Darling had been better.

He is out for a while. Mrazek hasn’t looked very good so far, but McElhinney sure has. If the Canes’ goaltending tandem had an average save percentage last season, they would be a very different team.

The average team save percentage was .912. This brings goals allowed from 256, all the way down to 208. This, along with the changed shooting percentage, brings the Hurricanes to a +48 goal differential. This would have been the best in the Metro.

Conclusion

It really is amazing to see all of the factors that have such huge effects on a team. With miserable save and shooting percentages, the Canes are grouped in as a poor team.

If they get better luck with their shooting percentage and maintain a .912 percent save percentage, they’re a completely different team. The corps of the Hurricanes is not the problem.

A few changes were made during the offseason, but they still have a good offensive and a fantastic defensive group. If the hockey gods allow it, the Carolina Hurricanes could surprise.