Detroit Red Wings: Don’t worry about Anthony Mantha

Even with three points in the first six games of the season, Detroit Red Wings forward Anthony Mantha has been one of the most unlucky players in the NHL. Fans shouldn’t be worried about him, though.

Only six games into the 2018-19 season and people are already turning against Detroit Red Wings forward Anthony Mantha. It really is unfortunate how willing some are to jump on the “We need more out of -” sort of thing.

Mantha scored 24 goals and 24 assists for a total of 48 points last season, good for third on the Red Wings. With Henrik Zetterberg‘s retirement, his role has become even more important. The truth is, Mantha has been one of the unluckiest players in the league, thus far. This shouldn’t be surprising, as most 24-year-old 50 point scorers won’t go on random plunges.

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In addition, Mantha’s unlucky numbers may be an indication of better things to come, considering some of his other metrics. It’s obviously still too early to know for sure, but he almost certainly has more to offer than it has appeared.

Just His Luck

So, the simple approach to a Mantha analysis is to look at his plus-minus and point pace. His plus-minus rating is already down at a horrendous -10 and he’s on pace for seven fewer points. But again, it’s not his fault.

One of the better indicators of individual luck variance is PDO. This is definitely a stat that most people should take into consideration whenever declaring the downfall of so and so. Just add save percentage while the player is on the ice to shooting percentage while the player is on the ice, and you’ve got your PDO. This is where Mantha’s situation becomes clear.

While on the ice, Red Wings goalies (mostly Jimmy Howard) have been pretty awful. Although Howard has had less than an encouraging start to the season, he’s saved the worse for Anthony. The Wings have a combined .721 even strength save percentage while he’s playing. That’s the plus minus out of the way.

If that’s not bad enough, while he’s on the ice, his team has a shooting percentage of 3.2 percent. While he himself is hovering at a fairly average 8.3 percent, you aren’t gonna get many assists when no one around you is contributing. These stats are unsustainable.

The only observation that can really be made here, is that he’s scoring goals at a lower rate. But remember, everyone, it’s only six games into the season. A lot can change, and by the way things are looking, they are only going to get better.

In terms of his actual PDO, it’s all the way down at 75.3. Average would be between 98 and 102. For everyone who has appeared in at least five games, this is the worst in the NHL. This is not Mantha’s doing.

Red Wings fans can rest assured that this will increase, eventually. Over the course of 10 games or so, Mantha should be getting a more normal amount of assists. Perhaps in the meantime, he can take some initiative by shooting more, since he seems to be the only one putting up a decent shooting percentage.

Beyond the simple “He’ll get better” exists Mantha’s CorsiFor percentage. Despite being subject to horrendous on ice shooting and save percentages, his CF is doing great, at 60.7. This also isn’t likely sustainable, considering his 51.8 CorsiFor percentage of last season, but it indicates that he’s just getting incredibly unlucky.

Conclusion

It’s really fun to get into early-season freakouts. On a team like the Red Wings, where Mantha is supposed to be one of the guys you’re looking forward to, it can be even more tempting.

In this case, however, there’s really nothing to worry about. Mantha is doing fine, and he should be set for another good season.