New York Islanders: Raining on the Valtteri Filppula Parade

Valtteri Filppula of the New York Islanders is off to a good start this season. How sustainable is his current point pace?

This early into the NHL season, variance, be it lucky or unlucky, has a huge effect on an individual player’s point totals, and thus, their team’s point totals. Unfortunately for New York Islanders fans, this is the case for Valtteri Filppula so far.

He has scored four goals and two assists for a total of six points in his first six games. Three of these points came from the Thursday game against the Los Angeles Kings, which the Islanders won 7-2.

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Last time on this early season PDO segment, it was seen that Anthony Mantha’s unlucky start can be mainly attributed to his goalies’ ridiculously low save percentages while on ice, as well as his linemates’ shooting percentages.

Filppula is on the other end of it. While on the ice, his team’s goalies have been unsustainably fantastic, and his luck has been sky-high. What really differentiates this from the Mantha case, however, is what it might mean for him. For Filppula, other metrics suggest that his teammates’ performances are helping to keep him afloat.

Filppula this season

Despite being second on the New York Islanders in points with six and first in goals with four, Filppula’s actual play hasn’t been all that great. What contributes most to his early-season point totals, are luck-driven factors and great goaltending.

It’s unfortunate that plus-minus even has to be discussed, but it’s a listed stat, so it must. Filppula’s is a solid plus +5 so far, so more pucks are going in the other team’s net when he’s on the ice.

A lot of this has to do with goaltending. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss have both had promising starts to the season, with save percentages of .935 and .918 respectively.

This would already elevate your plus-minus over a lot of other teams. With Filppula on the ice, they have a combined save percentage of .976. Yes, they have stopped 98% of shots with him on the ice. It should be pretty easy to maintain a decent plus-minus when your goalies are that good.

Even crazier than that, however, is his shooting percentage. Now, in terms of PDO, Filppula is number one in the league, at 120.3, for everyone appearing in at least five games. This is thanks to the save percentage and his team’s shooting percentage while he’s on the ice.

However, his own shooting percentage has a lot to do with his line’s ridiculous shooting percentage. If we used his shooting percentage in the PDO equation, then it would be 154.7, where the average is between 98 and 102. Plainly, this is quite ridiculous.

Alright, so that’s conceded. He’s getting incredibly lucky. So what? A good player is still more likely to have a 102 PDO. He’s getting lucky, maybe, but he’s more likely to reach that number than an average player if he’s playing that well.

But then comes his CorsiFor percentage. Despite the shooting percentage, Filppula is not helping his team out in terms of puck possession. His CorsiFor percentage is all the way down at 37.3. The Islanders are already one of the worst teams in the NHL in CF, but Valtteri is one of the worst on the team.

Filppula’s shooting percentage and on-ice save percentage are keeping him alive. If he can’t inch up that CorsiFor percentage, he may be in trouble.

Conclusion

So, that should conclude this two-parter on PDO’s role in the early season. Early on, Mantha is being criticized for poor play, while Filppula is being complimented for his superior play. This is the problem with trusting point totals this early into the season.

When you look at who is more likely to do well, it’s clear that Mantha is and Filppula isn’t. Maybe Valtteri can keep up a decent pace. Who knows? But, he’s getting incredibly lucky right now.