Washington Capitals: Lessons from Stanley Cup can lead to consistency

The Washington Capitals won the Stanley Cup by blocking a lot of shots and playing faster than their opponents. They must use this blueprint to become more consistent this season.

The new season has gotten off to a rocky start for the Washington Capitals, who, at 5-3-2, have been unable to put wins or strong performances together with any sort of consistency. It is still too early to panic, but there are already obvious issues that need to be fixed.

Two issues, in particular, have been pointed out as readily apparent: the lack of depth scoring so far, especially compared to the playoffs and the defensive lapses that have led to the Capitals being one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL thus far.

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This article will explore both of these issues, and see how the team’s play during the last Stanley Cup playoffs could help to turn things around.

Struggles with Depth Scoring

One of the main issues with the Washington Capitals in previous playoff runs was their difficulty in getting production from all parts of the lineup. Outside of Alex Ovechkin, the goals tended to dry up in the playoffs, leading to the early exits fans grew accustomed to.

During the 2018 Stanley Cup run, that all changed. While Ovechkin and other stars, such as Evgeny Kuznetsov, played their part in leading the team, the supporting cast and depth stepped up in a way previous Washington teams had failed to.

The best illustration of this is the third period of the Cup-clinching Game 5 in Vegas. Down by one entering the final frame, the fourth line drew the team even with Devante Smith-Pelly‘s goal from Brooks Orpik. The game-winner moments later was by Lars Eller and the third line.

So far this season, however, that same depth that elevated the Capitals to their unlikely Stanley Cup victory has vanished. The top-end guys, like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov, have been dominant in the early going, but the Ellers and Smith-Pelly’s have failed to replicate their performances.

Our own Dave Stevenson had this to say about Washington’s difficulties with depth scoring:

That said, no one’s going to feel bad for them and they need to get more depth scoring so when guys like Ovechkin and Kuznetsov have off nights, they aren’t completely screwed. The Capitals have six months to get everyone on the same page like they were during the playoffs last year. Otherwise, their sweet championship reign will likely only last one year.

There are two aspects to point to with regards to why Washington’s depth has struggled so far. The most obvious is the loss of Tom Wilson to his 20-game suspension to start the season. Without him, Washington has lost its physical top-line presence from the playoffs.

In addition to the loss of that physicality, which was huge in the postseason, the Wilson suspension has also meant replacing him with a bottom-sixer. Players like Smith-Pelly and Brett Connolly are good in their roles, but exposing them as much as they have been is not sustainable.

The other issue has just been what appears to be an overall lack of interest so far. In many games, most evidently against the Oilers on Thursday, the Capitals have played lazy hockey while making mistakes, such as egregious turnovers, they were not making last May.

It is difficult to pinpoint what exactly this is due to: the fabled Stanley Cup hangover or difficulty adapting to new head coach Todd Reirden‘s system. Whatever the case may be, being disinterested will certainly not help improve the team’s depth scoring.

Many of the issues related to the depth scoring may be fixed when Wilson returns from the suspension, but both until then and beyond, the Capitals must find a way to get up for these games like they did in the playoffs, or the personnel will not make a difference.

Struggles Defensively

While the depth scoring has not been up to par so far for the Washington Capitals, their top guys have been so good that it should not make that much of a difference. In fact, their offense is still one of the best in the league by far.

Instead, the bulk of their struggles, as mentioned earlier, can be attributed to having one of the league’s worst defenses through the early part of the season. And unlike the offense, where a key player is out of commission, the defense is identical to what the team had in the playoffs.

So what is going on? How is a defense that was able to keep some of the best offenses and individuals in the NHL in check over the last postseason struggling so much to start this season?

The first thing to point to would be coaching. Barry Trotz, who left in the offseason, was widely praised for the defensive system that he had the team playing. Has Todd Reirden changed that system enough to mess with the unit’s chemistry, leading to the issues they have had so far?

I find this to be unlikely, primarily since Reirden’s main responsibility as Trotz’s assistant over the past few seasons has been to run the defense. That same defense that was one of the best in the league over the past few seasons and this last playoff run was managed by Reirden.

So if the system is unlikely to have changed, the culprit here must be the execution, and the stats seem to back that up. Check out the following chart from the great minds at hockeyviz.com

A very simplistic summary of this image is that the darker red the color is, the worse it is, and the darker blue the color is, the better it is. Slightly more detailed, this image shows how many shots the Capitals give up from all areas of the ice as compared to the rest of the league.

The main takeaway from this image pertains to the massive red splotch right in front of the net. This indicates that Washington is allowing way too many shot attempts from that high-danger area to go unblocked.

That, along with Holtby not stealing games like he did in the playoffs, can explain why the defense has been so bad so far. Regression to the mean for Holtby and Pheonix Copley could help the goals against come down, but this inability to prevent shots from in-close will remain an issue.

How can this be fixed? First, the Stanley Cup hangover issue pertains here as well. Many of these great opportunities against could be due to turnovers from lazy passes or disinterest in blocking shots from close-range and inability to clear the crease and rebounds.

A more specific solution, however, pertains to how Reirden is using his defensive personnel. Per Natural Stat Trick, the usually reliable pair of Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen has been disastrous defensively, allowing significantly more shots and high-danger chances than they produce.

To make matters worse, Reirden has been utilizing them as the defensive shutdown pair, as they have the bulk of defensive zone starts so far. It is tough to blame him for doing so, since they performed well in that role last season. So far, however, it has not been working.

What is the solution, then? The best option may simply be to ride the course and hope these two solid blueliners can right the ship. Giving more defensive responsibility to either John Carlson or Brooks Orpik does not seem to be a smart idea on paper.

Another possibility would be to shake up the defensive pairings and hope for a spark. Play Orlov with Carlson and ride them for big minutes in a sheltered role. Let Niskanen and Kempny handle more of the defensive responsibilities and take on that shutdown role.

However, as with the depth scoring, any changes to the system or personnel will be irrelevant if the overall compete level and effort from the Washington Capitals does not improve. If the team as a whole plays at a level more similar to how they did in the playoffs, the results will come.

Overall, it is still way too early for the Washington Capitals or their fans to panic. This is a good team that has proven that they are capable of winning when it matters. Much of their inconsistency can be attributed to a disinterest which could be expected given the time of year.

That being said, there are still ways for the Washington Capitals to take another step in the right direction even beyond their effort. Getting four lines rolling and, perhaps, making a tweak to the defense could allow them to improve even further.

It remains to be seen if the Washington Capitals can get over these early-season blues. But they did so last year, and with enough patience, they may do so again this season.