Comparing Nico Hischier and Nolan Patrick after 100 games

Leading up to the 2017 NHL Draft, the debate over who should go first overall came down to one simple question: Nico or Nolan? The Devils took NicoHischier with the pick, leaving NolanPatrick to the Flyers. Let’s take a look at how they’re doing 100 games in.

For a couple of years, NHL Draft experts were calling the 2017 draft the Nolan Patrick draft. Nolan was a point per game player in his age 16 season while playing for the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL, with all the tools and looks of a stud in the making. He broke out for 102 points in 72 games at age 17, and looked like a lock to go first overall at the draft. Meanwhile, in Switzerland, a young Nico Hischier was cleaning up hockey in his native country and was ready for a step up in competition.

Nico moved to Canada, joining the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL. He was a projected first rounder, but probably somewhere later on, maybe the teens, twenties, who knows. The 2016-17 season shaped up to spark the debate between the two centers, as Hischier had a big coming out party at the World Juniors for Switzerland while Nolan got injured and missed half the season.

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Hischier finished the year with 86 points in just 57 games for Halifax, as well as seven points in just six playoff games before the Mooseheads were eliminated. Patrick didn’t play in the playoffs at all, as his Wheat Kings were swept out of the first round.

Nico did everything right to raise his draft stock and challenge Nolan for that top spot while Patrick spent more time off the ice recovering than on it, strutting his stuff.

The debate was hot, with pundits going back and forth at who would be better for the draft lottery winner, which was the New Jersey Devils.

Draft day in Chicago comes, and New Jersey picked Nico first overall, with the Philadelphia Flyers taking Nolan minutes later at #2.

Both players made their respective teams out of camp, and both have played in the NHL exclusively ever since. No minor league stints or trips back to juniors for either one. Now, a year plus later, both players have approximately 100 games of NHL experience under their belts, which means we can see a development of what kind of player each of these guys will become. Let’s compare.

Size

According to HockeyDB, Nico stands at 6’1” and weighs 175 pounds while Nolan is slightly taller at 6’2” and tips the scales at 198 pounds. The extra size is very important for a center, who’s jobs are to win faceoffs, battle in the dirty areas in front and behind the net and against the boards, and play both offensively and defensively strong. Not to say that Nico won’t fill out his frame, as he’s still just 19 years old, but it’s hard to make up 25 pounds when you’re that young.

Edge: Nolan

Skating

Nolan has the build of a power forward, with great change of pace moves, power strides, and speed. It definitely works for him as he carries the puck through the neutral zone in transition, which is what he’s meant to do as a power center. I find Nico’s edgework to be at another level though, as he’s able to get into the dirty areas flawlessly, with an excellent stop/start technique, as well as above average speed. Both players use this to their style of play, which is vastly different.

Edge: Neither

Offense

Nolan currently has 18 goals and 21 assists in his 94 game NHL career as of November 30, shooting at a 10.7% clip. His possession metrics read slightly below average, with a Corsi For at 48.6% for his career, but that’s not much to worry about for a young center. His PDO, which determines luck by shooting percentage and save percentage, is just about 100%, which means what you see is what you should be getting to this point.

Nico has played 101 games so far as of November 30, and has 24 goals and 41 assists to show for it. Nico’s shooting at 10.6% In terms of possession, Nico has a Corsi For at 50.9%, including a 54.5% this season so far, and again, his PDO is right around 100%, though this year it’s down at 96.2%.

Comparing just the numbers, Nico has this one by a mile, both in terms of scoring numbers as well as possession rates. Yes, let’s chalk up the fact that Nico has spent more time playing with reigning MVP Taylor Hall than anyone, and Nolan is playing second line minutes, but that also shows where their respective coaching staffs see where the players deserve to play.

Nolan is playing right around a 40-50 point pace, which is just fine for a second year center. Nico is at a 60-75 point pace, is playing better with possession, and is less lucky this season.

Edge: Nico

Defense

First, let’s look at zone starts. This tells us how each coaching staff prefers to deploy each player, and where they trust defensive games. The reason we can look at this, is to see if that team trusts that player to help get the puck out of the defensive zone, and transition into offense.

Nolan for his career is about even, but this season he’s starting in the defensive zone at a whopping 58.2% of the time. Nico is the exact opposite, starting in the offensive zone at 62% of the time. Now, this isn’t so telling for a good reason, and that goes back to the player’s role. Nolan is serving as more of a checking forward at this point, while Nico is top end offense on his team, and will be part of power plays, and will be sent out when the other team might commit an icing with tired players out.

Additionally, Nico has more defensive centers behind him on the depth chart with Travis Zajac and Brian Boyle to hold up the back end, while Nolan is probably the best suited for the shutdown center for Philadelphia at this time, while Sean Couturier (a defensive expert in his own right) is the top line center.

So we can look at faceoffs, where Nolan wins about 52% of his draws, including 55.7% this year, while Nico is at just 42% for his career. You can chalk this one up to size, as Nolan has more of a power forward build, and it works in the context of the zone starts as well, because the Flyers trust Nolan to help move the puck out of the zone.

Lastly, lets look at what happens after the puck is in motion. This includes shot blocks, hits, and takeaways/giveaways. Hits are relatively even, with Nolan getting the slight edge. However, Nico has a large edge in shot blocks (47 to 29), and a far better takeaway/giveaway ratio than Nolan (Nico has 68/32, Nolan has 44/43).

This goes to show that Nico is better when the puck is in play, and is a driver of possession with the ability to protect the puck and disrupt offense, while Nolan is better at preventing the offense from happening altogether. It’s a very tough call to determine which is better here.

Edge: Neither

Usage

When you draft a franchise player with one of the first two picks, expectations are that they’ll make an immediate impact. It’s typical to not necessarily throw the young player into the fire and have them play top minutes, because some players may have adverse reactions to the heavy minutes, higher level competition, and potential breakdowns in confidence.

That hasn’t stopped Nico from playing on the top line for the majority of last season, with league MVP Taylor Hall and either young up-and-comer Jesper Bratt or sniper Kyle Palmieri as his wings, and the current setup has the Hall-Hischier-Palmieri line as one of the most dangerous lines in the NHL today. Nico averages roughly 16-17 minutes per game, and is now featured on the power play more frequently than last year.

Nolan, on the other hand, had a much slower start to last season, and saw much more limited ice time. His role has expanded, to now where he’s roughly at 15 minutes per game, as well as power play time. He usually plays on the second line, and has a long running track record with Wayne Simmonds and Jakub Voracek, two very capable offensive players.

Nico has better playing partners, but has earned the right to be playing alongside the league MVP. Nolan has good linemates too, but it isn’t the premier offensive package on the team.

Edge: Nico

Conclusion

Because of the debate that had the experts buzzing about it during the entire draft process of 2017, both Nico and Nolan will forever be compared against each other. It’s still very early in their careers, but both players definitely have shown worth in many different aspects of their game. Both players bring very different skill sets to the table, and both bring tons of value and upside to their game.

Considering everything, from Nolan’s edge in faceoffs and defensive usage, to Nico’s edge in offense and turning the play in his team’s favor, as well as the linemates they’ve been matched with and the time they’ve been given on the ice, the edge has to go to Nico.

His ability to hang with the likes of Taylor Hall, his ability to transition to offense, and being able to get the puck in the net once it gets there. Nolan is very capable, and will be an excellent player during his time with Philadelphia, but Nico is already at that next level, and is just getting started.