Here’s a look at where the Pittsburgh Penguins sit through 30 games

After their first 30 games, the Pittsburgh Penguins have some work to do. 

The Pittsburgh Penguins have played 30 games in the 2018-19 campaign. They are currently out of the playoff picture. Their regular season is 36 percent complete.

For a team that has Stanley Cup aspirations, the team’s first two months of the season have been wildly inconsistent.

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Here’s a look at how the team has performed thus far and some of this season’s trends. Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, the Penguins have generated 51.46 percent of the even-strength shot attempts. That mark is the eighth-best in the league.

Per Corsica’s model, Pittsburgh’s expected goals for percentage of 52.44 percent also ranks eighth in the NHL and third in the Eastern Conference. The only “contenders” that rank higher than the Penguins here are the Tampa Bay Lightning and San Jose Sharks.

For every 60 minutes of even-strength play, Pittsburgh allows 25 scoring chances against. This number surprised me. Based on the eye test, I would have estimated it to be more than 25. Anyways, that is the tenth best rank in the league.

Overall, most of their underlying numbers are above-average. Over the last two weeks, the Penguins have been consistently outplaying their opponents, but not always ending up on the right side of the end result.

That’s not to say that the Penguins do not have their problems. They certainly have their fair share. Here are some of the early season trends surrounding this Penguins squad.

Over the last month, Evgeni Malkin’s even strength production has been dryer than the Sahara Desert. Per Quant Hockey, Malkin’s 0.783 goals per 60 minutes currently rank eighth amongst the Penguins forwards. Additionally, Malkin has the same amount of even-strength goals (6) as Valtteri Filppula and Troy Brouwer. The Penguins need to get Geno Machino back on track.

Speaking of slumps, Bryan Rust ended his 21 game goal drought last night against the Blackhawks. Rust now has four goals on the season. His PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) of 0.982 is the third lowest on the Penguins roster. Similar to Carl Hagelin, Rust is a still useful player when he is not scoring. Pittsburgh needs Rust and Riley Sheahan to start contributing offensively on a more consistent basis.

The Jack Johnson signing has gone as expected. Johnson has continued to be a below-average possession player (47%) in his time with the Penguins. He has no puck skills. Johnson has been on the ice for more even strength goals against (28) than any other player on the Penguins roster. For context, those 28 goals against are the seventh-highest total in the entire league. Not great!

If you told me back in September that you expected Casey DeSmith to outperform in Matt Murray thus far, I would have called you crazy. But that has been the case. DeSmith has been an above-average netminder, while Murray has continued to struggle with consistency and injuries. If the status quo continues, the Penguins will likely have to go to a goaltender platoon between the pipes.

Ultimately, I’m optimistic Malkin and Rust will pick up the pace. It would take a Christmas miracle to turn Johnson into an above average player. Considering the last year and a half of Murray’s on-ice results, there are far more questions than answers surrounding him right now.

According to The Athletic, the Penguins still have a 69% chance of qualifying for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The team’s performance is trending up. Hopefully inserting Murray, Patric Hornqvist, and Dominik Simon back into the lineup lead to the Penguins getting more consistent and positive on-ice results.

Thanks for reading!