Is Mackenzie Blackwood the New Jersey Devils’ answer in goal?

Ever since making his NHL debut, Mackenzie Blackwood has done nothing but impress for the New Jersey Devils and their fans. After a rough calendar year in goal for New Jersey, have they finally found the future?

It’s been a very long time since the New Jersey Devils have had to search for answers in goal.  When the team moved to the Garden State from Colorado in 1982, the newly renamed Devils had Glenn “Chico” Resch in net, who had come via trade from the Islanders after losing his job to Billy Smith.

After Resch left, the Devils had Sean Burke ready to play, making his debut in 1987. After Burke left the team in 1991, Chris Terreri held the fort. It was just one season later that the great Martin Brodeur arrived. Brodeur made just four appearances in the 1991-92 season but got going in 1993-94. The Devils were all set in net for the next 21 years.

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As the greatest goalie of all time got older, the Devils began to wonder who would be the heir apparent. The immediate answer was made at the 2013 NHL Draft when the Devils traded the ninth overall pick to the Vancouver Canucks for Cory Schneider.

Schneider was solid for his first three years in New Jersey, with a .924 save percentage and a goals against per game of 2.08, and a quality start rate of 62.7%. Injuries started to take their toll, however, and his numbers crumbled.

Things came to a head recently. Schneider’s calendar year of 2018 was really bad. He had just one start the whole year where he didn’t give up at least three goals, didn’t won a single regular season game, lost time due to multiple injuries, and lost his starting job.

Keith Kinkaid had been the backup goalie for the Devils since the 2014-15 season and has done a very good job at that. He never looked out of place, he never had a quality start rate below 50%, his career save percentage (as of New Year’s Eve 2018) is at .910, which is solid for a backup goalie. He even took over as the team’s social media leader, writing emoji filled tweets to credit his teammates after every Devils win, and won a date with country singer Taylor Acorn.

This year, though, it seems as if being thrust into the starting role has taken its toll on Kinkaid. Not that he’s done poorly, and he is not all to blame, but his numbers have reflected a drop off in performance. His save percentage this season is just .901, his goals against per game has ballooned to over 3.00 for the first time in his career.

This brought a question that New Jersey has never really had to answer before – what does the future look like in goal? The true answer may have come at the 2015 NHL Draft, where the Devils selected Mackenzie Blackwood with their second round pick, 42nd overall.

Blackwood was the top ranked North American goalie at the draft, standing a towering 6’4” and having extremely high athletic projections. He put up very good numbers at Barrie of the OHL, claiming the spot on the All-Rookie team in 2013-14 season.

His adjustment to the pro game came slowly at first. After a decent 2016-17 season at then Devils’ AHL affiliate Albany as their backup goalie, he seemed to have regressed in 2017-18. In 32 AHL games at Binghamton, Blackwood struggled to a .882 save percentage, and a goals against per game of 3.41, earning him a trip to ECHL Adirondack for the remainder of the season.

The demotion seemed to have been a kick in the pants for him, as he turned it around from there. After earning his spot back in Binghamton, he returned to respectable numbers in the AHL. Blackwood mentioned how he needed to calm his game down, simplify his mechanics, and use his hulking size as an advantage in covering his net. He could then use his athleticism to make up for any lost ground.

With Schneider struggling to stay on the ice at all, and Kinkaid needing help holding things up, New Jersey called on Blackwood to see what he can do. His first test came in a relief appearance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, just nine days after his 22nd birthday. He stopped Zach Hyman on a breakaway for his first save and also stoned Auston Matthews on a partial break early in his only period of action. He would later give up two goals on just 10 shots, but no one could really blame him for either one.

Blackwood’s first start came two nights later in Columbus. The Jackets beat Blackwood once in the first period on a defensive breakdown, a second time on a Cam Atkinson penalty shot in the second period, and that’s it. Columbus threw 36 other shots at Blackwood, who calmly stopped them all. The Devils couldn’t score for him against Sergei Bobrovsky, and Blackwood settled for a tough-luck loss.

After another relief appearance where he stopped all nine shots from the Jackets, this time at home in Newark, he earned another start in Boston after the Christmas break, after coach John Hynes said Blackwood would be getting a good long look. He responded by stopping 40 of 42 Bruins shots, and not all of them easy, to earn his first NHL win.

Blackwood would get another start at home against Carolina and he pitched a 37 save shutout, stopping multiple breakaways from players like Sebastian Aho (and also getting a little love from the referees and the goalie interference rules). On New Year’s Eve, Blackwood picked up his second straight shutout, this one against the Canucks.

So in his small sample size of appearances, Blackwood has stopped 155 of the 161 shots taken against him. Those goals against? Defensive breakdowns (it happens with New Jersey this year, trust me), funny deflections, and a penalty shot.

The advanced numbers also back this up. According to Corsica, his low danger save percentage is 1.000, meaning he hasn’t let a bad goal in yet. His medium danger save percentage is .9615, which is tops among all goalies with at least five games played.

At high danger, his save percentage is .8824, which is the second best in the NHL between goalies who have at least 5 games played. His DSV%, which is the difference between his actual save percentage and his expected save percentage, is 4.94, meaning he’s playing a lot better than he should be expected to as of now (All stats as 1/1/2019 and are at five-on-five).

It seems as if Blackwood’s game plan of simplifying his game and using his size is working extremely well. In his small line of work so far, he’s been nothing but impressive.

Consider where the Devils’ season has been going with Kinkaid and Schneider shouldering the load in the New Jersey net. Kinkaid has been teetering at average, and starting to dip below the median. Schneider has been about as useful as Goldberg with his arms and legs tied to the goalposts.

At this poin,t the Devils may as well give the starter keys to Blackwood to see if he’s really capable of an NHL starting job. Not much to lose here. There are two ways this experiment can realistically end up.

First, is if this hot streak keeps on going. Blackwood’s confidence begins to take off, and he continues to be a solid ~.920 goalie for the rest of the season. The Devils start to win games that they wouldn’t otherwise have so far, due to the lack of quality goaltending, and make a dark horse run at the playoffs. Blackwood becomes the de-facto starter the rest of the way, and a decision about what to do with Cory Schneider becomes more of a storyline.

The second, and more possible outcome, is if Blackwood comes down to earth. The Devils aren’t having a good season to begin with, and they keep giving Blackwood starts to give him more experience at the highest level. With nothing to lose in this endeavor, the Devils remain near the bottom of the conference, and are in the mix for the draft lottery’s top position and consensus #1 overall pick Jack Hughes. Blackwood becomes the de-facto starter the rest of the way, and a decision about what to do with Cory Schneider becomes more of a storyline.

The third option, which I haven’t mentioned because it makes the least amount of sense, is sending Blackwood back to the minors once Schneider becomes healthy. At this point, it’d be wisest for the Devils to see what they have in Blackwood at the NHL level. The rest of the Devils’ goalie prospects includes Cam Johnson, an undrafted free agent out of the University of North Dakota, and Gilles Senn and Akira Schmid, two Swiss giants who have a long way to go before any consideration for the North American game. So being able to evaluate Blackwood now is the best idea for the Devils.

The results are either really good, and Blackwood becomes the Devils goalie for the forseeable future, or he flames out, and back to the drawing board. But at least he becomes a known quantity after more NHL time.

In my “expert” opinion, I think Blackwood is the real deal. He has huge size and excellent athleticism, which can help him cover lots of net up from shooters. If he keeps his simple mechanics in line, he won’t find himself out of position much, which will give those shooters less net to look at because of his size.

The Devils may have found an answer for a question they probably never thought they’d ever have. The New Jersey net may be secure long term yet again.