NHL Awards Watch: Charting The Norris Trophy Race

Several defensemen have had outstanding starts to the 2018-19 season. But what do the stats say?

With scoring at a nearly unprecedented high, and defending seemingly at an unprecedented low, the race for the James Norris Memorial Trophy for the League’s top defensemen is wide open.

While the over point-per-game pace put up by many of the leagues top D-Men would have them running away with the award any other season, they find themselves with ample competition.

The charts below outline major statistics that voters, both new and old school, will be examining when it comes time to vote, at seasons end. The combination of standard, secondary and advanced statistics see several front-runners rise to the top. These favorites are compared to the historical Norris precedent set by the leagues best defensemen over the past decade.

The standard statistics will be the voting communities first glimpse into the 2018-19 Norris field, and there are a few clear outliers. Morgan Rielly has embraced the high-octane Maple Leafs’ offense and currently leads defensemen in goalscoring while playing some of the fewest minutes of any of the top contenders.

While this scoring boom may be new territory for many of the League’s top defensemen, Brent Burns finds himself in familiar territory, leading defenders in assists and points, while playing significant minutes, both at 5on5 and on both special teams units. Another name that may not jump out immediately is Mark Giordano, who, though leading on shorthanded playing time, is near the top of almost every standard stat.

While the point scoring statistics will draw the first glance of the secondary statistics above, and advanced metrics below, give a more full picture, and perhaps most importantly the defensive prowess, of our top Norris candidates.

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The biggest benefactor of our secondary and advanced statistics are Erik Karlsson and Mark Giordano. Karlsson leads these top Norris chasers in CF%, as well as expected goals for and against. Hockey Reference’s defensive and overall point share stats claim Giordano has been both the best defender, and player, in the league thus far.

While Karlsson and Giordano rise to the top after a deeper look, players such as Morgan Rielly and Keith Yandle suffer. Rielly and Yandle’s league average possession metrics show their defensive reliability may not be on par with the other top defenders, and their point shares thus fall far below. Giordano has also flourished in less analytic defensive categories such as blocked shots and shorthanded ice time.

And while the advanced analytics for the history of the Norris Trophy is difficult to find, the standard precedent set by previous winners is outlined below (as well as the league ranking of many of the major stats).

While almost all the top contenders are, naturally, on pace to smash the historical scoring pace established in recent years, the secondary and advanced statistics truly draw out the cream of the crop.

Morgan Rielly’s goal scoring and point production will certainly draw the eyes of old-school voters, but his struggles in the possession statistics and lack of ice time will draw from his contention.

Aside from Rielly, Mark Giordano, Brent Burns, and Erik Karlsson have established themselves in a tier of their own. These three are all on pace for 65 points and are the clear favorites of the advanced analytics community. With the three top game scores, Corsi-For Percentages, and lowest expected Goals Against/60 these three have

The major caveat is that Burns and Karlsson both suit up for the same team, the San Jose Sharks, which could have them splitting votes or detracting from their candidacy overall. Mark Giordano, however, is his teams clear #1 defensemen; the workhorse for the current Western Conference-leading Calgary Flames.

Giordano’s case is also helped by the fact that, although consistency receiving votes, the Toronto native has never won the Norris. With Karlsson, Burns having already achieved the honor, Giordano’s career success could assist his cause.

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Bearing in mind there are still over 30 games for any one contender to pull away from this dense crowd, the current ‘power ranking’ of Norris Trophy competitors sits as the following.

Mark Giordano
Brent Burns
Erik Karlsson
Morgan Rielly
Kris Letang
John Carlson
Thomas Chabot
Ryan Suter
Keith Yandle

The Norris race should be an ultra exciting one. There are a lot of contenders and any number of guys could win it. But right now, Giordano, Burns, Karlsson, and Rielly should be on top of everyone’s list.

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