Toronto Maple Leafs: Why a Mitch Marner offer sheet is unlikely

Don’t worry Toronto Maple Leafs fans. It’s extremely unlikely any team will try to sign Mitch Marner to an offer sheet. Here’s why.

Every year, NHL reporters and analysts throw around the offer sheet. Someone’s going to get it every year! This has been proven wrong just about every single year. The Toronto Maple Leafs are this year’s alleged victims, as it’s been reported teams are preparing offer sheets for Mitch Marner.

Insider Darren Dreger said during a recent Insider Trader segment that teams are definitely preparing an offer sheet for Marner. While it might sound scary, Maple Leafs fans have nothing to worry about.

Dreger’s credibility isn’t in question here. It wouldn’t be surprising if that information leaked out. But you have to wonder, who does the leak benefit the most? Certainly not the Leafs because it puts pressure on them to sign him quickly. Most likely, it’s coming from rival teams who want to make the Leafs pay more for Marner.

What’s An Offer Sheet

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There are two types of free agents – unrestricted and restricted. Unrestricted free agents (or UFAs) can sign anywhere. Restricted free agents are still under team control, but must negotiate a new contract.

Other teams are allowed to sign a qualified RFA who isn’t going to arbitration to an offer sheet. After the Tuesday before free agency starts, other teams are free to give an offer sheet to any RFA who matches the qualifications I mentioned earlier.

If the player signs the offer sheet, which they cannot do until July 1, the player’s team has a week to match this deal. Remember, teams can go over the salary cap in the summer (up to a 10% surplus) as long as they’re compliant by the start of the season. If they don’t match it, the other team gets the player but must give up compensation.

Compensation

There are levels of compensation. Compensation depends on the average annual value (AAV) of the contract. However, the AAV isn’t calculated like it usually is (total money divided by years). It’s actually total money divided by either the number of years or five (whichever is lesser).

Let’s use John Tavares’ contract as an example. He signed a seven-year deal worth $77 million as a UFA during the summer of 2018. Tavares has an AAV of $11 million. Let’s say this was an offer sheet instead. For the purposes of compensation, his AAV would be $15.4 million.

Here’s a list of the levels for the 2018 offseason. It’s worth noting the levels will change slightly if the salary cap rises, which it is expected to do.

$1,339,575 or less: No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659: Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322: Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980: First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641: First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302: Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302: Four first-round picks

Why Marner (Or Any Major RFA) Isn’t Getting An Offer Sheet

The last person to sign an offer sheet was Ryan O’Reilly back in 2013. The Calgary Flames signed him to it and the Colorado Avalanche matched it. A reason offer sheets are so rare is because it provides the player’s team with the precise structure of a contract. Also, it’s difficult to structure a contract that would make it hard for the player’s team to match while not mortgaging the future.

Let’s go back to Marner. Hypothetically, suppose the New York Islanders are still really pissed about Tavares and want to stick it to the Leafs. They’re signing Marner to an offer sheet! One the Leafs won’t be able to match! It would have to be for seven years. Because if it’s not, why in heaven’s name would Marner even consider signing the offer sheet?

The Islanders would have to give up four first-round picks in that scenario. It’s pretty much a given. Let’s say the Islanders get really creative and say, “Fine we’ll just give an offer sheet for seven years with an AAV one dollar less than the top tier”. $10,148,301 multiplied by five is $50,741,510. Two first-round picks, a second-round pick, and a third-round pick is still a lot to have to give up.

If the Islanders did that, the Leafs would thank the Islanders for saving them the time of negotiating a long-term deal for Marner. That’s because he would have signed a seven-year deal for less than $7.25 million annually.

Four first-round picks is a lot for any team to give up. And they have to be the team’s own picks as well. It’s risky. What if things don’t go as you planned and one of those picks is a lottery pick? Imagine if the Oilers had done that and lost McDavid! It’s also a lot of money to commit. Teams are understandably reluctant to forfeit a ton of picks and a ton of money to sign someone. They’d much rather give up only one of those two things, not both.

So don’t worry Leafs fans. Or Tampa Bay Lightning fans. Or a fan of a team with an RFA who wants a pay raise. Nobody’s getting an offer sheet. It’s too much trouble and it’s simply not worth it.