New York Islanders: Should they really be doing this well?

Contrary to most expectations, the New York Islanders sit atop the Metropolitan Division, as the season passes the 50-game mark. Are they this good?

Before the season even started, most people had the New York Islanders ruled out of playoff contention. Having, of course, lost their superstar in John Tavares, and with a struggling Robin Lehner as their starting goalie, it just didn’t seem like there was much to them.

The writer here had them in second last in the Metro before the season began, in fact. Instead of staying under the radar in simply striving to meet the supposed grim season ahead of him, the Isles have soared to the upper level of the Eastern Conference.

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Although no one on the team is scoring out of their mind, they’ve seemingly gathered up an impressive crew of consistent scorers. This, obviously, includes their center corps, which has stayed capable even without Tavares.

Brock Nelson and Mathew Barzal boast 46 points and 32 points respectively. In addition, Josh Bailey has 38 points and captain Anders Lee has 37. While their scoring doesn’t rank among the best in the NHL, it’s also far from incapable.

However, despite their success, they are probably the most doubted team at their tier in the league. Their forward group is still filled with role-players, whose abilities are questionable relative to the rest of the team.

With this in mind, do the Islanders have what it takes to compete with the best in the league, or are they destined to fall back into mediocrity?

The Positives

The Islanders do indeed have skills that separate them from the average team. While a lot of excitement exists around Mathew Barzal and Robin Lehner, their defense actually deserves a some of the credit.

On the top 4 specifically, Nick Leddy and Ryan Pulock are having terrific seasons. Even with Boychuk struggling, the Islanders have allowed a total of 1563 shots, which is about 31 per game. Compare this to the league average, being 1613.

Of course, the main attraction has been the goaltending. Despite experiencing an odd outlier with the Sabres last season, Robin Lehner is now a Vezina candidate with a .932 save percentage.

Thomas Greiss, who didn’t look like he belonged at all last season with a .892 save percentage, has soared to a .924 through 27 games so far. Combine this with the above-average defensive display, and the Islanders can constantly blank the opposing team.

Things aren’t as good on offense, but Barzal obviously still exists. He leads the way in points with 46, while Anders Lee leads in goals with 18. You can think the Islanders are over-rated, while still acknowledging where they undeniably excel.

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The Negatives

Despite the Islanders’ abilities in the defensive end, they still fall short in a lot of areas. Again, mostly thanks to John Tavares, there’s still a big hole in their scoring. Although it only appears slightly below-average when looking at goal totals, their shooting totals sit a full 170 below the league average.

To make things worse, Jordan Eberle doesn’t really belong on a first line, Anthony Beauvillier certainly doesn’t belong in a top-six forward group and Leo Komarov has just been painful to watch. As can be seen by his play around the ice, he is one of the worst possession players in the league. He probably shouldn’t be on the roster, let alone the third line.

Possession-wise, Komarov is the most obvious example of the Islanders’ Corsi problem. With a 47.8 CF% so far this season, the Isles are a dismal 27th in the NHL. The only team worse than them in the Metro is the Rangers, meaning even the Devils surpass them in this category.

With their CF%, the Islanders’ current success, unfortunately, seems unsustainable. They might still be deserving of a playoff spot, but no team can remain at the top of their division while being out-possessed this consistently.

Even defensively, where the Isles albeit have talent, there are still huge problems. Johnny Boychuk is impossibly bad at clearing the zone. Seriously, his clearing attempts are successful 3% of the time. Sure, he definitely helps in the offensive zone but that is just unacceptable.

Adam Pelech, also on the top four, struggles all over the ice. He isn’t terrible in any element, but he doesn’t excel at anything either. Offensively, the Isles are below-average. Defensively, they are capable but still questionable. The key to sustained success for the Islanders is obvious.

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Conclusion

Lehner and Greiss have been phenomenal. If they stay phenomenal, the Islanders are likely playoff contenders. As can be seen from their possession stats, however, they just don’t rank among the best in the league.

The Islanders are no longer basement-dwellers, but they probably don’t belong at the top of the Metropolitan Division.

Stats courtesy of C.J. Turtoro comparison tool

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