Ottawa Senators cannot afford to lose the trade deadline
The Ottawa Senators have a chance to save their rebuild coming up at the trade deadline. They can’t afford to blow it.
It’s amazing how quickly things went downhill for the Ottawa Senators. Roughly 19 months ago, they were a goal away from being the Eastern Conference Champions. A shade over 15 months ago, the Senators traded for Matt Duchene. Now, Ottawa is at the bottom of the NHL standings with a healthy three-point cushion over the New Jersey Devils.
Back in September, the Senators traded two-time Norris Trophy-winning captain Erik Karlsson to the San Jose Sharks. To say they lost that trade would be an understatement. Even though Dylan DeMelo looks like a keeper and Chris Tierney has been a pleasant surprise, neither of the two should be the headliners when you trade arguably the greatest right-handed defenseman since Chris Chelios.
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Feb. 26 is the NHL’s trade deadline. The Senators are set up to improve their future significantly over the next few weeks. That’s good because they must emerge from the trade deadline as huge winners. If the Senators don’t, it’s hard to see things getting better any time soon.
Ottawa has two of the best rental forwards available in Mark Stone and Duchene. Either one could be extended and the Senators would like to keep both. But with every day that passes without the announcement of an extension, the more likely it appears both leaving is inevitable.
On top of those two, the Senators have forward Ryan Dzingel, who should fetch a nice price even though he’ll be a free agent after this season. Goaltender Anders Nilsson could be a depth option on a contender.
Defenseman Cody Ceci will be a restricted free agent after this season. It’s painfully obvious the Senators aren’t comfortable investing in him long-term. Ergo, it’s safe to say he’s not a part of their future. So why not trade Ceci? Forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau has a year left on his deal after this one, so he’s more than a rental. But it wouldn’t be surprising if the Senators traded him should they get the right offer.
The Returns
There is no reason Ottawa shouldn’t get at least a first-round pick for each of Stone and Duchene. The market for forwards of their caliber has been set. Lesser forwards, such as Paul Stastny, Rick Nash, and Martin Hanzal, have fetched packages featuring a guaranteed (or all but guaranteed) first round pick at the NHL draft. The Senators will likely get at least a B-level prospect thrown in for each deal as well.
The Senators are set up to improve their future significantly over the next few weeks. That’s good because they must emerge from the trade deadline as huge winners.
Dzingel could get a low first-round pick, but more realistically, a second rounder would be considered a success. It’ll be interesting to see how his market develops because he’s on pace to score 30 goals and his team-friendly $1.8 million cap hit is appealing to many teams.
Anything the Senators got for Ceci would be icing on the cake. Ottawa has already likely seen his best. Ceci’s trade value is pretty minimal, but in a sheltered third-pairing role, he could play regularly on a contender. His $4.3 million cap hit, however, doesn’t justify this role. Nilsson would get Ottawa a late-round pick at best. But hey, something’s better than nothing.
For Pageau, the Senators should set the price high with a first-round pick. If Ryan Hartman netted the Chicago Blackhawks a first rounder, Pageau ought to do the same for Ottawa. They can always move him in the offseason.
Why They Can’t Afford To Blow It
The Senators are a rebuilding team without an impressive prospect pipeline. Rankings around the league have them somewhere around 13th. This is slightly above average, but keep in mind the Senators will be graduating quite a few prospects over the next two years.
Ottawa doesn’t have their own 2019 first rounder (which has a decent chance of being the first overall pick), so acquiring multiple 2019 first-rounders isn’t a recommendation. It’s a requirement. Adding top-notch prospects to an organization that has none (Brady Tkachuk isn’t a prospect, by the way) isn’t just a good option. It’s the only option if the Senators want to be good anytime soon.
For the past 15 months, Sens fans have been begging for some good news. Thomas Chabot and Tkachuk are doing their darnedest to give them some. But penny-pinching owner Eugene Melnyk has given the fanbase very few things to be excited about. He has a chance to provide a brighter future for Senators fans over the next few weeks. If Melnyk fails, it might be his last chance.