Washington Capitals: Optimized lineup following Hagelin, Jensen trades

The Washington Capitals have made two absolutely tremendous deals prior to the trade deadline. How should the new blood slot into the lineup?

When the Washington Capitals came out of nowhere to win the Stanley Cup last season, one of the main reasons was the under-the-radar trade for Michal Kempny. He helped stabilize the team’s defense enough for the offensive talent to take over and lead the way.

Leading up to the NHL trade deadline on Monday, General Manager Brian MacLellan appears to have worked his magic again. In trading for Carl Hagelin and Nick Jensen, while only losing some draft picks and Madison Bowey, “GMBM” may have replicated his Kempny deal from last season.

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Like with Kempny, the reason the Hagelin and Jensen trades are so great for Washington is because of the underlying statistics. Despite playing on very bad teams (Los Angeles Kings and Detroit Red Wings respectively), both players have been very good at even strength.

The stat I like the best is 5 on 5 High Danger Shot Attempts Percentage (HDCF%), a measure of the quantity and quality of a team’s/player’s offensive and defensive efforts. For the Caps to win the Stanley Cup this year, I believe they must post at least a 50% HDCF%, as they did last postseason.

So far this year, the Capitals are at a 45.08% mark, which is far below the 50% cutoff, per Natural Stat Trick. To that point, Hagelin has been very good at even strength on a very bad team, and Jensen is one of the most underrated defensemen in the league.

Of course, these deals were not done in a vacuum. The Caps had to waive Devante Smith-Pelly, who has struggled all season long and trade Bowey, who has failed to live up to his promise as an everyday defenseman.

Smith-Pelly has posted a Relative HDCF% of -2.00, which is very poor for a team that already has a bad overall HDCF%. Bowey has not been very good either, playing to a -0.20 relative mark, despite the fact that “linemates” Brooks Orpik and Jonas Siegenthaler have been very good.

What this means is that the Capitals roster has gotten significantly better thanks to the shrewd moves of MacLellan. Now, however, it is up to head coach Todd Reirden to optimize the lineup to take advantage of these improvements. Here is how I would do that.

The first step is to identify who absolutely must be playing, either based on their talent or their statistics. These are the players who should be “locks” for the starting lineup:

Locks (Talent): Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, Jakub Vrana, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Lars Eller, Andre Burakovsky, Brett Connolly, John Carlson,  Kempny

Locks (Stats): Dmitrij Jaskin, Nic Dowd, Orpik, Christian Djoos, Hagelin, Jensen

The “talent” locks are essentially players who offer more than just their advanced statistical performance. Guys like Ovechkin, Kuznetsov and Carlson should not be benched under any circumstances. I would argue that the entire Top 9 (and top D pair) fall under this category.

The “stats” locks are players whose underlying statistical performance makes benching them an awful decision, as they are the kind of depth players that can make a difference come playoff time. Taking these locks into account, here is what the current lineup looks like:

Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson
Vrana – Backstrom – Oshie
Burakovsky – Eller – Connolly
Hagelin – Dowd – Jaskin

 Carlson – Kempny
Djoos, Orpik, Jensen???

So while the forwards are pretty much set, the issue comes on the backend. There are essentially five players that should be playing, and two more in Dmitry Orlov and Matt Niskanen who have struggled mightily but most likely would not be dropped.

If I were to fully optimize this, I would likely go with Orlov-Jensen and Orpik-Djoos as the bottom-four on the blue line. But as I said, Orlov and Niskanen will not be left out of the lineup after they were so crucial to the Washington Capitals winning it all last season.

As a result, the question comes down to whether Orpik or Djoos should be benched, and although Orpik has been great this year, I would say it has to be him. Jensen is more of a defensive guy, so playing him with an offensive-minded D-man in Djoos provides a nice balance.

Additionally, while Orpik would likely struggle in elevated playing time given his age, Djoos and Jensen could eat some of the minutes that Orlov and Niskanen have been playing. That could help shelter the struggling pair and improve their performance while steadying the Caps defense.

Here, then, is my new, fully-optimized lineup:

Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson
Vrana – Backstrom – Oshie
Burakovsky – Eller – Connolly
Hagelin – Dowd – Jaskin
Extra: Stephenson, Boyd

 Carlson – Kempny
Djoos – Jensen
Orlov – Niskanen
Extra: Orpik, Siegenthaler

I believe that this lineup, which has the same high level of talent the Washington Capitals are known for, as well as the tremendous depth necessary to win a Stanley Cup, is a realistic and optimized option for Reirden to take advantage of.