Vancouver Canucks: Projecting Brock Boeser’s next contract
The Vancouver Canucks will have to give sensational forward Brock Boeser a new deal after this season. What should it look like?
The Vancouver Canucks have seen quite a bit of improvement from last season. Obviously, the addition of Elias Pettersson has been a significant reason why. But don’t overlook the impact of Brock Boeser. While the Canucks took a slight risk by not re-signing him last summer, it was ultimately the right decision. They’ll enter this summer with re-signing Boeser on the top of their checklist.
By delaying his extension, the Canucks have more data and more certainty. They probably could have gotten something done last summer, but it’s understandable why they waited. It’s paid off, as he only has 21 goals this season as of March 8. That said, Boeser has further proven his value to the Canucks and has cemented himself as a cornerstone for the franchise.
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So what will his next deal look like? Well, it largely depends on what direction Boeser decides to take. Does he sign a short-term deal? Maybe Boeser would like a long-term deal? Let’s take a look at what both options would look like, as well as his direct comparables.
Direct Comparables
To understand one’s value, you have to compare them to their peers. The closer you can get to the player’s specifics, the better. Here’s a list of Boeser’s comparables. It compares him to similarly aged players over their first three seasons, starting in 2012-13.
The first thing you’ll notice is most of his closest comparables (Brayden Point, Sebastian Aho, Alex DeBrincat, Mikko Rantanen, and Matthew Tkachuk) are in the same boat as Boeser. They’re all restricted free agents after this season. Keep an eye on this because it’ll be interesting to see which domino falls first and how the rest of them fall.
Other Comparables
Though there aren’t any direct comparables who can help us, there are some others. Here’s a list of similar players, with the help of CapFriendly. If you look at the list, you can see Boeser has some extremely impressive peers.
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Short-Term Deal
It’s rare to see someone of Boeser’s status sign a short-term deal. Teams and players both usually push for a long-term deal. However, Matthews turned everything upside down when he signed a five-year deal that will let him re-enter the market fairly quickly.
If Boeser decides to follow a similar path, things could go interesting, mostly because it’s a path so rarely taken by young players. Something around $7 million to $8 million a year makes sense, but again, it’s so rare, there aren’t any comparable deals other than Matthews and Nikita Kucherov.
This could be a very tempting option for Boeser thanks to his age. He’s 22 right now. If Boeser enters the free agent market at 27 or 28, he’ll set himself up for a potentially huge deal.
Long-Term Deal
Obviously, a long-term deal would make all the sense in the world for the Canucks. Why wouldn’t they want to lock up an at worst great goal scorer through the age of 29 or 30?
David Pastrnak‘s deal (six years, $40 million) should provide some common ground. He had more points per game (0.93) from 2015-16 to 2016-17 than Boeser has had from 2017-18 to this season (0.86) and more goals per game (0.45 to 0.43) as well.
However, the cap has since risen since Pastrnak’s deal. When he signed in September of 2017, his contract took up 8.89 percent of their cap ceiling. Let’s assume the 2019-20 cap ceiling is $83 million. This would give Boeser a $7.378700 million average annual value. That would work for both parties.
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But there’s one more factor we have to consider – Boeser will be a free agent after he plays for seven seasons. Which means any year after his fourth year of an extension would have to factored in, since the Canucks would be buying out UFA years. Adjusting for this, Canucks fans should expect Boeser to sign a deal ranging from about $7 million to about $8 million per year, assuming it’s a six year deal. If Vancouver wants him for eight years, they’ll likely have to give him over $8 million, since they’d be buying out four UFA years.
Prediction: Six years, $7.25 million.