Erik Karlsson’s free agency value has diminished this season

It’s not very often where a Norris Trophy defenceman hits the free agent market, but San Jose Sharks defenseman Erik Karlson’s value might have taken a bit of a hit this year.

Assuming he doesn’t sign an extension with his new team, San Jose Sharks defenceman Erik Karlsson will undoubtedly be the most sought-after free agent if he hits the market on July 1st.

The two-time Norris Trophy winner has been by far the NHL’s best blueliner since the 2011-12 season when he scored 78 points. While Karlsson is not the most reliable guy defensively, he has taken over games completely with his smooth skating and world-class offensive skills.

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After a sluggish start to the 2018-19 season, Karlsson slowly began to regain his old form with the Sharks before being sidelined earlier this month with a nagging groin injury. He has three goals and 45 points in 52 games with the Sharks this year, with an excellent Corsi For percentage of 59.3%.

But if he enters free agency, is Karlsson really going to break the bank as much as we would have thought a year ago? NHL general managers always overpay for talent in free agency, but it wasn’t crazy to think he could land a deal north of $85 million before the 2018-19 season began.

Ross McKeon of the San Francisco Chronicle explained why Karlsson hasn’t earned a “max-extension” yet, citing his early struggles, two-game suspension back in December plus the injury woes. Well, those reasons McKeon outlined are why every team should be a bit weary in giving Karlsson a mammoth contract.

The Sharks can give him eight years, but the current collective bargaining agreement dictates that teams can only sign a free agent for a maximum of seven years. If any team is willing to give Karlsson the max term, they’ll be taking a huge risk that could come with consequences.

Karlsson turns 29 in May, so a seven-year deal would be taking him into his mid-30s. Obviously, age and mileage will take a toll on Karlsson’s supreme skating, which has been his biggest weapon. Will Karlsson still be an elite skater and blueliner as he progresses?

It’s worrisome that he’s been hampered by a groin injury this year. Let’s also not forget that Karlsson suffered an Achilles tear in a 2013 game against the Pittsburgh Penguins, so the injury history simply cannot be ignored.

When free agency opens, general managers might only look at the offensive side of Karlsson’s game. But what are the chances that a player who turns 30 next year – with groin and Achilles injuries – will produce the same 70-80 point seasons that he compiled with the Ottawa Senators?

Karlsson isn’t a huge liability on defense by any means but make no mistake – Those two Norris Trophies were won because of his offense. But for all we know, Karlsson’s offenc=se has already declined.

For example, his career shooting percentage is 6.4. Well, Karlsson’s shooting percentage has been below that in two of the last three seasons, and it was only 6.5 percent in the 2015-16 season. You might play the “bad puck luck card,” but it’s hard to discount the fact that Karlsson’s season shooting percentage has been 7.1 or better six times.

It’s easy to be “wowed” by Karlsson’s aforementioned 59.3% Corsi For percentage, but let’s call that a short sample size. His career CF% is 53.4, but guess what? It was below that number in his final four seasons with the Ottawa Senators.

Make no mistake, Karlsson is still a top blueliner and can be the final piece in a team’s Stanley Cup quest. But the stats show that Karlsson has already began declining on offence, and teams should be weary of giving him a maximum contract worth $85-plus million.

Given his age, slightly declining offensive game and injury history, a more reasonable deal for Karlsson would be for five or six years worth around $60-70 million.

*Stats courtesy of Hockey Reference*