New York Islanders recent struggles show rebuild isn’t completely over
The New York Islanders recent regression to the mean shows how far they have to go to be Stanley Cup contenders.
Going into this season, the New York Islanders were expected to be a fringe postseason team at best, even after hiring Stanley Cup champion Barry Trotz to lead behind the bench. They were closer to the bottom of the standings than the top. Early, they appeared to be much better than everyone thought, even after losing captain John Tavares to the Toronto Maple Leafs in free agency.
Lately, the Islanders have been more closely resembling the team people thought they would be. Even in February, when the Isles posted an impressive 8-4-2 record, they had one of the worst score and venue adjusted CorsiFor percentages in the NHL. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss combined to save 94.75 percent of the shots they saw at five-on-five during this span, the fourth highest total in the league.
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March has been far less kind to the Islanders than February. Lehner and Greiss (mostly the latter) have combined for the eighth-lowest five-on-five save percentage in the league. Their possession numbers have actually declined, though they’ve risen from the third-worst in the league during February to merely the fifth-worst in March.
In 11 games, the Islanders only have five wins, with two of them coming against the Ottawa Senators, who are actively trying to be as bad as humanly possible.
The Rebuild Is Still Present
It’s very likely (though not a lock) the Islanders will be a playoff team this season. While this would be a huge improvement over last season, the Isles are still a rebuilding team, in that they’re trying to build a Stanley Cup contender. Losing Tavares has sapped their offense, as it’s gone from one of the NHL’s best in 2017-18 to one of the worst this season.
Sure, the Islanders are light years better on defense under Trotz than they were. However, preventing goals isn’t the name of the game in today’s NHL. You have to be able to score goals to win. That’s something the Islanders undeniably struggle at.
With a number of free agents, it will be interesting to see how the Isles handle this offseason. Do they give Lehner an extension for what he has done? What about captain Anders Lee, who will be a free agent after this season? If the Islanders can’t re-sign him, it would be crushing because it would be the second time in as many seasons they’ve lost their captain.
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Some of their other free agents include Jordan Eberle, Valtteri Filppula, and Brock Nelson. That’s a lot of offense to potentially lose. The Islanders have guys like Kieffer Bellows, Josh Ho-Sang, and Oliver Wahlstorm who could help fill those voids if needed. With a strong offseason, maybe the Isles fix their offensive woes. Until they do, it’s hard to take them very seriously as Stanley Cup contenders.