NCAA Hockey: Comprehensive Tournament Preview

West Regionals

Location: Fargo, ND

Dates: March 29-30

(1) St. Cloud State Huskies

How they got here: At-Large Bid (NCHC Runner-Ups)

NCAA Ranking: #1

Player to watch: Patrick Newell (Sr – F)

For the second year in a row, the first overall seed in the NCAA Hockey Tournament belongs to the St. Cloud State University Huskies. They are looking to improve after being upset in the first round last year by Air Force.

St. Cloud State was one of the top teams in the country all season long, en route to winning the tough NCHC for the regular season. They nearly took the NCHC tournament as well, falling in double overtime in the finals to Minnesota-Duluth.

The Huskies are led by their potent offense, whose 155 goals is the most of any team in the tournament. They are also an elite possession team, controlling 56% of shot attempts at even strength despite playing in perhaps the toughest conference in the country.

Key to that offense is Patrick Newell, the senior up front who led the team in goals and points this season. He is one of the ten finalists for the Hobey Baker award for NCAA Hockey MVP, along with teammate defenseman Jimmy Schuldt.

The only weakness for the team is in net, where starting goaltender David Hrenak only posted a .908 save percentage this season. However, given how strong the Huskies are offensively, they can likely overcome any issues he may have.

(2) Denver Pioneers

How they got here: At-Large Bid (3rd NCHC)

NCAA Ranking: #6

Player to watch: Devin Cooley (So – G)

The 2017 NCAA Hockey champions are back, and looking for their ninth national title in their first season without former head coach Jim Montgomery, who now coaches the Dallas Stars. They were eliminated last year in the second round by Ohio State, their first-round opponents this year.

Like St. Cloud State, Denver also had the misfortune of having to run the gauntlet in the NCHC, but they did not fare nearly as well. After an average regular season, however, they took third in the NCHC tournament, earning them their berth in the NCAA tournament.

The Pioneers are one of the better teams in the country defensively, although much of that can be attributed to the great goaltending they received from Filip Larsson and projected starter Devin Cooley. Both keepers posted save percentages of over .930 in nearly 20 games played apiece.

Offensively, the team is almost painfully average. They finished 26th out of 60 teams in goals scored, and 24th out of 60 teams in shot attempts percentage. This is a far cry from the offensive juggernauts they used to have under Montgomery.

Perhaps some of their struggles can be attributed to the difficulty of playing in the NCHC, but that would be of little solace to their fans given a win of the first round would mean a likely meeting with conference rivals St. Cloud State in round two.

(3) Ohio State Buckeyes

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Big Ten Semifinalists)

NCAA Ranking: #9

Player to watch: Tommy Nappier (So – G)

After reaching the Frozen Four last season, the Ohio State University Buckeyes are looking to win their first NCAA Hockey championship this year. The regular season Big Ten champions reached the conference tournament semifinals before losing to Penn State.

Ohio State is built very similarly to their first-round opponents Denver, in that they do not really have an elite forward but have a clear standout goaltender in sophomore Tommy Nappier. They are slightly better than the Pioneers possession-wise, but expect this game to be a goalie duel.

Things may look fairly bleak, then, for the Buckeyes, but they are actually a better team in terms of the advanced stats than they were last season. They could make another deep run if everything clicks and Nappier continues to play well.

(4) American International Yellow Jackets

How they got here: Atlantic Hockey Champions

NCAA Ranking: #18

Player to watch: Blake Christensen (Jr – F)

Last year, the lowest overall seed to make the NCAA Hockey tournament was Air Force University, the Atlantic Hockey conference champions. Like this year’s Atlantic Hockey champs, American International College, not much was expected of them until they upset St. Cloud State.

American International was the best squad in their conference all season long, winning both the regular season and postseason titles to receive the automatic national tournament berth. Unfortunately, they may be a bit overmatched against non-conference opposition.

Their best player by far is forward Blake Christensen, who was the only member of the team to post a point-per-game season. Otherwise, they do not really have any standouts or advantages, and their goaltending has been shoddy all season long.

So, Air Force’s miracle upset of top-seeded St. Cloud State should be used as inspiration for the Yellow Jackets, who have the same formidable task facing them this year. However, just like in the Stanley Cup playoffs, anything can happen come tournament time.

Northeast Regionals

Location: Manchester, NH

Dates: March 29-30

(1) Massachusetts Minutemen

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Hockey East Semifinalists)

NCAA Ranking: #4

Player to watch: Cale Makar (So – D)

For the first time in a long time, the state of Massachusetts will not be represented in the tournament by Boston University or Boston College – instead, it will be the U Mass Minutemen, the regular season Hockey East champions, looking to win their first national title.

If this team seems to have come out of nowhere, it is because they basically have. This is only their second ever appearance in the NCAA Hockey tournament, and first since 2007.

This renaissance has been led by 2017 4th overall draft pick and Colorado Avalanche prospect Cale Makar, who has had an absolutely tremendous season. Thanks to him, the Minutemen are a top-10 team in the country in both goals for and goals against.

Possession-wise, Massachusetts are one of the best teams in the country, with a 57% shot attempts percentage. Their power play is clicking at almost 29%, while their penalty kill is also elite at over 87%.

Even their goaltending is a strength. Starter Matt Murray has posted a solid .912 save percentage, and backup Filip Lindberg is more than capable of stepping in when necessary.

The Minutemen may have just arrived to the big stage, but they are absolutely a force to be reckoned with. Do not take this team lightly.

(2) Clarkson Golden Knights

How they got here: ECAC Champions

NCAA Ranking: #7

Player to watch: Jake Kielly (Jr – G)

Speaking of teams searching for their first NCAA Hockey championship, three-time finalists Clarkson are back in the big dance and looking dangerous, after winning the ECAC title in overtime over Cornell.

The Golden Knights are an interesting team, in that they have a clear standout up front and in net. Nico Sturm has been a force offensively, but it is likely that their tournament hopes rest on the back of Jake Kielly, who has been one of the best keepers in the country over the last two years.

The play of the goaltender is made even more important given how poor Clarkson has been possession-wise all season. They are in the bottom half of the country in shot attempts percentage, meaning Kielly has to come up big for them.

Still, in a single-elimination tournament, a hot goaltender can make all the difference. That is what Clarkson will be relying on.

(3) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

How they got here: Big Ten Champions

NCAA Ranking: #12

Player to watch: Cale Morris (Jr – G)

One year after making a run to the NCAA Hockey finals on the back of their goaltender, Notre Dame will likely be looking for the same thing this year after sneaking into the tournament by winning the Big Ten.

Last year, the Fighting Irish were the second-overall seed, but their were issues. They seemed to be relying too much on their goaltending, that a poor performance could do them in. This year, they are in the same position, and would like to silence their doubters again.

Notre Dame are middle-of-the-pack offensively and defensively. They routinely get dominated in terms of possession. All of this was true last year, but it did not matter, because Cale Morris turned into a brick wall in net.

Morris may be even better this year, which bodes well for an offensively impotent Notre Dame squad. Their chances lie completely on him. At least they got a relatively easy first-round draw with Clarkson.

(4) Harvard Crimson

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC Semifinalists)

NCAA Ranking: #13

Player to watch: Adam Fox (Jr – D)

After making the Frozen Four two season ago, Harvard missed the NCAA Hockey tournament last season. After an inconsistent year, the Crimson are back and looking to return to the semifinals.

Like a lot of ECAC teams, Harvard plays with a solid defensive structure, but are just average offensively. However, they are pretty good possession-wise, and are led by Adam Fox, the Carolina Hurricanes prospect who is one of the best offensive defensemen in the tournament.

Between this, and their solid goaltending, this is not a team that “wows” you. However, they play the right way, and with a decent draw could surprise people. Unfortunately, U Mass is not a decent draw, and beating them will be a tall task for Harvard.

East Regionals

Location: Providence, RI

Dates: March 30-31

(1) Minnesota St. Mavericks

How they got here: WCHA Champions

NCAA Ranking: #3

Player to watch: Dryden McKay (Fr – G)

Other teams may get more press, but few teams in the NCAA Hockey tournament are scarier than the Minnesota State University Mavericks. The WCHA regular season and tournament champions are absolutely deadly, and a legitimate threat for the national title.

Minnesota State has been one of the best teams in the country all season long, and for good reason. They are third in the nation in both goals for and goals against. They have a top-10 power play and penalty kill. Their goaltender, Dryden McKay, just posted a .933 season save percentage.

Possession-wise, the Mavericks are an elite team in terms of shot-attempts percentage. In most levels of hockey, dominating play and getting such a high level of goaltending almost always leads to postseason success.

The games still have to be played, but on paper, Minnesota State are just about as dominant of a team as they come. It is just a shame that they got such a difficult first-round matchup (more on that later).

(2) Northeastern Huskies

How they got here: Hockey East Champions

NCAA Ranking: #5

Player to watch: Cayden Primeau (So – G)

If I seem to be choosing a lot of goaltenders as the players to watch, it is only because I truly believe that for most teams, their chances of winning rely on the play of their goaltender. Northeastern is in that group, as the play of Cayden Primeau has carried them this far.

Primeau is one of the best goaltending prospects in the world, something he exhibited for Team USA in the World Juniors. He has been an absolute stud this year, posting a .936 save percentage while leading the Huskies to allowing among the fewest goals in the country.

Unfortunately, Northeastern is absolutely horrendous offensively. They control just 46.3% of shot attempts at even strength, and are carrying a shooting percentage of 10%. An off-day from either Primeau or the offense would spell disaster for this group.

(3) Cornell Big Red

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC Runner-Ups)

NCAA Ranking: #10

Player to watch: Morgan Barron (So – F)

In normal circumstances, I would have Cornell down as another team that needs its goaltender to come up big to have a chance, but for the injury-ravaged Big Red, their most important player will be New York Rangers prospect Morgan Barron.

The two-time NCAA Hockey champions tied for their second straight ECAC regular-season title, before falling in overtime to Clarkson in the ECAC tournament. The biggest loss in that game, however, may have been starting goaltender Matthew Galajda, who is doubtful for the first-round.

As a result, sophomore Austin McGrath will likely be in net for Cornell, making it even more important that they can handle themselves offensively. In past years, they have been carried by stellar defense before faltering to high-octane offenses in the tournament.

They cannot rely on that this season, which is why Barron, their top scorer, will be so crucial. If he can help lead the offense, that in conjunction with their trademark shutdown defense could help them make a run. It helps that they get such a weak first-round opponent, but they need more.

(4) Providence Friars

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Hockey East)

NCAA Ranking: #11

Player to watch: Josh Wilkins (Jr – F)

If you are one of those people who likes to predict Cinderella stories in tournaments like this, then here is the team for you. The Providence Friars have the chance to take a lot of teams by surprise in this year’s NCAA Hockey tournament.

Perhaps the most underrated team in the tournament, Providence does not have a lot of flash. While Josh Wilkins is their top scorer, they really do not have anybody in any position who stands out significantly.

What they lack in pizzazz, however, they make up for in structure. The Friars consistently dominate the opposition in shot attempts, are great at limiting goals, and are above-average in scoring them. Plus, they essentially have “home-ice” with this region being hosted in Providence.

It is a shame, then, for both them and Minnesota State, that they have to face each other in the first round. For the fans, however, this is a godsend, as this could be the best game of the entire weekend. Get ready for some high-octane stuff, folks.

Midwest Regionals

Location: Allentown, PA

Dates: March 30-31

(1) Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs

How they got here: NCHC Champions

NCAA Ranking: #2

Player to watch: Scott Perunovich (So – D)

The defending NCAA Hockey champions are back, and they are back with a vengeance. After an up-and-down regular season in the brutal NCHC, they took a 2OT classic over St. Cloud State to win the conference championship.

What is interesting about this team is that on paper they may not really stand out. They are elite defensively and solid offensively. They have a reliable goaltender and some decent depth up-front. But they do not have a game-changer in any position.

It does not matter. The reason they won the NCAA Hockey tournament last year was because they played hockey the right way and got timely goaltending. This year they are even better, posting a monstrous 60.8% shot attempts percentage, by far the best in the country.

There is a reason they were able to win the toughest conference in the country, and there is a reason why I picked them as my favorites to win the tournament last month. When they play their game, there is nobody who can beat them.

(2) Quinnipiac Bobcats

How they got here: At-Large Bid (ECAC)

NCAA Ranking: #8

Player to watch: Chase Priskie (Sr – D)

The 2016 NCAA Hockey tournament runner-ups tied with Cornell to win the ECAC regular season, before being upset in the conference tournament by Brown, a team that did not make the NCAA tournament.

They are arguably the best defensive team in the league, and are one of the best offensively as well. Goaltender Andrew Shortridge has been spectacular this season, posting a .941 save percentage. They controlled 54.6% of shot attempts at even strength.

Despite all of that, the curse of tournament hockey is that one off-day can doom you, as the Brown example shows. Because of that, I think two-way defenseman Chase Priskie is their most important player for the tournament.

The Washington Capitals prospect must lead by example on both ends of the ice. As a defenseman, he does not necessarily need to score the goals, but if he is playing the right way, his team will be more likely to succeed. Look out for the Bobcats – they could do something special.

(3) Arizona St. Sun Devils

How they got here: At-Large Bid (Independent)

NCAA Ranking: #14

Player to watch: Johnny Walker (So – F)

Wait, what? Yes, you are reading that correctly. In just their fourth season in NCAA Hockey, Arizona State University is making a tournament appearance. Led by Arizona native Johnny Walker, the Sun Devils are looking to make some more noise this year.

Before the Vegas Golden Knights comparisons get out-of-hand, however, let us get one thing clear: this team is very average. They played some good teams and some bad teams, and their overall statistics reflect that, both offensively and defensively.

It is very unlikely that they will be able to do much of anything in this tournament, especially given who they have to face in the first round. But honestly, their performance is not important. The fact that this team exists and has had this level of success is what matters.

(4) Bowling Green Falcons

How they got here: At-Large Bid (WCHA Runner-Ups)

NCAA Ranking: #15

Player to watch: Max Johnson (So – F)

It has been a long time coming, but after a solid regular season and an impressive showing against Minnesota State in the WCHA finals, for the first time since 1990, the Bowling Green Falcons have made it to the NCAA Hockey tournament.

The one-time national champions are a great story, and like Providence, are very underrated. They are one of the best possession teams in the country with a 56.5% shooting attempts percentage, and are one of the best teams in both goals for and goals against.

Like with Minnesota State – Providence, Minnesota-Duluth – Bowling Green could be an absolute barnburner, but at the end of the day, the Falcons are elite, while the Bulldogs are historically great. At least this should be a fun game for the fans to watch.

Whatever happens in the tournament, however, it is great to see Bowling Green back in the NCAA Hockey tournament. Here’s to many more appearances in the future.

Regional Winners:

West: (1) St. Cloud State Huskies

Northeast: (1) Massachusetts

East: (1) Minnesota State

Midwest: (1) Minnesota-Duluth

I know, I know, I am not exactly making any bold predictions here. The fact of the matter is, NCAA Hockey got their top seeds right this year. These four teams are the best in the country, I believe, and they all deserve to make it to the Frozen Four.

If I were to choose potential upsets, at the top of my list would be Providence from the East and Quinnipiac from the Midwest. They are both teams that I could absolutely see catching people by surprise with the way they control play.

On the flip side, I could also see Clarkson and Northeastern making Cinderella runs on the backs of their goaltenders. I believe Jake Kielly and Cayden Primeau could be the two best goaltenders in this tournament, and if they get hot for a weekend, they may be in the semifinals.

Semifinals:

(4) Massachusetts over (1) St. Cloud State

(2) Minnesota-Duluth over (3) Minnesota State

These two games were significantly more difficult to choose than the regional winners. From the top half of the bracket, I trust the Minutemen’s goaltending way more than I do the Huskies’, and Cale Makar would be the best player on the ice in that game.

From the bottom-half, I legitimately think this could be a toss-up. Both teams are so, so good and it is a shame that this cannot be the national final. Ultimately, I think the Bulldogs’ experience gives them the edge over the Mavericks.

Finals:

(2) Minnesota-Duluth over (4) Massachusetts

I said it a month ago, and I will say it now: the Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs will become the first team since Denver in 2004 and 2005 to win back-to-back NCAA Hockey tournament titles.

Massachusetts may have more well-known players, but at the end of the day I will always fall back on the system over the talent. Minnesota-Duluth is having a historically great season possession-wise, and I cannot overlook that. They will be national champions for a third time.

What do you think? Who wins the national title? Who are you most looking forward to watching during the tournament? Join the conversation below, and enjoy some college hockey!