Pittsburgh Penguins: Jack Johnson needs to be benched

The Pittsburgh Penguins have a logjam on defense. Jack Johnson should be the odd man out.

Assuming that Kris Letang and Brian Dumoulin will be healthy and game-ready within the next week the Pittsburgh Penguins will have a serious logjam on defense. And if the Penguins have serious Stanley Cup aspirations this spring, defenseman Jack Johnson needs to sit when the Stanley Cup Playoffs begin next week.

As right-handed shots, Justin Schultz and Erik Gudbranson will remain in the lineup. It comes down to Olli Maatta, Marcus Pettersson, or Johnson as being the odd-man out on the Penguins defense.

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However, there should be no debate. This is not rocket science. The third pair of Pettersson and Gudbranson has been at worst serviceable, which is all you need your third pairing to be. While Olli Maatta has his flaws, he is a better option than Johnson.

The current defense pair of Schultz and Johnson has been well below-average. With this pair on the ice, the Penguins are being consistently out-shot and out-chanced. Per Natural Stat Trick, here is how this pair has fared in 355 even-strength minutes together.

Shot Attempts Percentage 44%
Shots For Percentage 45%
Scoring Chances For 46%

Surprisingly enough, with this pair on the ice, the Penguins have outscored opponents 15-10 at even-strength. This is largely due to Pens goalies are stopping a whopping 95% of the shots they face with these two defenders on the ice. At some point, the on-ice save percentage is due for some regression. The on-ice process and the results do not align here.

After returning from injury, Schultz did not suddenly become a below-average hockey player. He still has great puck skills, solid mobility, and is capable of quarterbacking the powerplay. Schultz’s possession numbers this season are well below what they were in his first two seasons in Pittsburgh.

His usage this season is similar to how he was utilized in Edmonton, skating alongside below-average players. Johnson being a human anchor and his lacking puck skills are likely the driving factors behind Schultz’s struggles this season.

The four forwards that Johnson is on the ice with the most Phil Kessel, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, and Jake Guentzel. That is some elite company. All four of these forwards see their possession and shot metrics increase substantially when they are not on the ice with Johnson.

In simplest terms, Johnson’s presence alone is hurting the production of the Penguins star players. Despite frequently playing alongside elite talent, Johnson has nine (!!!) even strength points through 80 games this season.

With Johnson on the ice this season during even-strength play this season, the Penguins have been outscored 53 to 62. Pittsburgh has scored 46% of the goals.

With Johnson off the ice, it is a huge difference. The Penguins have outscored their opponents 145 to 113. The Penguins have scored 56% of the even-strength goals. That is a 10% swing. They are undoubtedly a better team with Johnson off of the ice.

It is not my intention to pin all of the Penguins flaws on one player. However, the data speaks for itself. Regardless of if you look at counting stats or possession numbers, Johnson is awful in whichever way you cut it. If the Penguins continue to roll with this below-average defense pair, elite teams like Tampa Bay or Boston will likely expose them this spring. The Penguins need to realize this and solve the problem before it materializes when the games matter the most.

I feel very confident in saying that Justin Schultz is not the problem on the Penguins defense second pair. If Pittsburgh wants to win another Stanley Cup, their best chance of doing so will be with Jack Johnson watching from the rafters.

Thanks for reading!

Data from Quant Hockey was also used in this article.