2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Penguins vs. Islanders preview, prediction

It’s been six years since the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders have faced each other in the postseason. After a long wait, their rivalry gets a marquee matchup in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.

The winner of the annual violent chess match between head coaches Mike Sullivan and Barry Trotz has gone on to hoist the Stanley Cup in each of the last three springs. A fourth chess match between these head coaches will carry on for yet another playoff year. It all begins on Wednesday night when the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders face off in Game 1 on Long Island.

During the regular season, the Pens had a record of 2-1-1 against the Islanders. The Penguins generated the majority of the even-strength shot attempts and shots on goal in three of their four meetings. They out-chanced the Islanders twice in that span.

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Also, it is important to note that all of these games were played prior to Pittsburgh acquiring Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann. Considering that all of these games were played in the first half of the season, the results of the season series aren’t important when evaluating these two teams.

Courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, here is a comparison of how the Penguins and Islanders controlled territory over the final 25 games of the regular season, and where they ranked league-wide.

• Even Strength Shot Attempts For Percentage – Pittsburgh 51% (12th) New York 46% (26th)
• Even Strength Goals For Percentage – Pittsburgh 53% (11th) New York 54% (8th)
• Even Strength Scoring Chances For Percentage – Pittsburgh 53% (8th) New York 48% (21st)

If you value the home/road splits, the Penguins have the advantage there too. Based on the eye test, Pittsburgh does appear to play more of a north and south style of hockey away from PPG Paints Arena.

Pittsburgh holds a sizable advantage down the middle of the ice. The Islanders simply cannot match the talent that the Penguins down the middle of the ice. Bjugstad has been terrific as the third-line center. If the Penguins third-line can continue to control territory and generate quality offensive-zone time, that would go a long way in shutting down the Mathew Barzal line. As the series goes on, and the Penguins have the last change, that is a matchup Sullivan should feel quite confident in.

On the wings, Jake Guentzel and Phil Kessel are elite talents that had terrific regular seasons for the Penguins. Bryan Rust and Patric Hornqvist went cold as the season concluded, but as much of a cliche as it is, Rust tends to elevate his game in the spring.

Former 40 goal scorer Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle are the Islanders highest-profile wingers. Lee led the Isles with 28 goals on 204 shots in the regular season. Eberle had a bit of a down year in 2018-19, but he still has the ability to create his own shot. It is probably in Barry Trotz’s best interest to load up with a line of Lee, Barzal, and Eberle to try and draw even with the Penguins top-six forwards.

Sidney Crosby, Kessel, and Evgeni Malkin were all at or above a point-per-game regular season pace. Matt Barzal led the Islanders with 62 points in 82 games. No offense to Barzal or the Islanders forwards, but they will likely be overwhelmed by Pittsburgh’s forward talent.

On defense, the Islanders have no match for Norris Trophy candidate Kris Letang. Devon Toews is their lone defender who was a positive possession player in the regular season. New York’s “top pair” of Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk controlled an underwhelming 44% of the even-strength shot attempts and 46% of the scoring chances. Crosby and Guentzel should have no issues generating chances against them.

If the Penguins continue to roll with the Jack Johnson and Justin Schultz pair, the Islanders will likely capitalize on their defensive miscues. I wrote last week that they need to sit Johnson in order to maximize their chances of winning another championship. That is still the case. While Dumoulin and Maatta are basically interchangeable in the top four, the Penguins need to go with a defense like this.

• Brian Dumoulin – Letang
• Olli Maatta – Schultz
• Marcus Pettersson – Erik Gudbranson

If (and hopefully when) Pittsburgh does this, they will become a substantially better team, and I would reckon they would likely make a run to at least the Eastern Conference Final.

As the possession metrics proved earlier, the on-ice process does not match the results for the Islanders. Their success is largely shooting and save percentage driven. While that is likely not sustainable long term, they could catch lightning in a bottle despite being outplayed in this series.

The Isles biggest strength is between the pipes. Robin Lehner and Thomas Greiss have both had terrific seasons. The Islanders were the only team in the NHL to allow fewer than 200 goals against this season. So, the Isles goaltending duo is capable of stealing games — or perhaps this entire series.

As you will see below, the Islanders goaltenders finished first and third in Goals saved above expectation. Both Lehner and Greiss have bailed out their team quite frequently. However, the Penguins have the offensive firepower to eventually convert on the chances they generate.

"View post on imgur.com"

Chart courtesy of Sean Tierney

Matt Murray has climbed his way back onto the positive side of this chart. In the early portions of the season, Murray was alongside Devan Dubynk and Martin Jones.

However, considering how well Murray has played since returning from injury on December 15th, I would deem the Islanders netminders stealing this series as unlikely. If Murray can continue to perform at this level, the Penguins will have at least matched the Islanders biggest strength.

This Twitter thread is further proof and context that shows how far Murray has climbed the ladder as the season went on.

The Penguins have the special-teams advantage, too. When a 40 goal scorer in Jake Guentzel is on your second power-play unit, things are probably going just fine. The Islanders power-play has scored just three goals since the February 25th trade deadline. On the penalty kill, speedy forwards such as Teddy Blueger, McCann, Rust are more likely to force mistakes that lead to short-handed offensive chances than Casey Cizikas and Matt Martin are.

Despite being the lower seed, the Penguins are still the favorite to win this series.

• Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic has the Penguins as a 70% favorite.
• Micah Blake McCurdy of Hockey Viz has the Islanders as a 51% favorite.
• Sean Tierney of Hockey Graphs has the Penguins as a 52% favorite.

My pick to click in this series for Pittsburgh is Dominik Simon. The Penguins recently formed a third-line unit of Simon, Bjugstad, and Hornqvist. They have lived in the offensive zone. With Simon on the ice at even strength this season, the Penguins generated 55% of the shot attempts, 59% of the scoring chances, and scored 56% of the goals.

Simon was their best possession player in the regular season. He has very good vision and playmaking ability. While Simon only scored 8 goals during the regular season, his expected goals total was at 11. Simon’s shooting percentage this season was slightly below his career average. The offensive chances are there, and it’s likely only a matter of time before Dom puts some biscuits into the basket.

The Islanders are obviously capable of winning this series. They have had a Cinderella-like season following the off-season departure of John Tavares. Barzal and Eberle are high talents that could create headaches for the Penguins.

On the flip side, the Islanders 223 goals scored this season rank last amongst the 16 teams in this year’s playoffs. New York’s fourth-line also likes to run around and hit people. From the Penguins perspective, that is fine because New York will not have the puck.

Between that and the Islanders strong duo in goal, the Penguins will need to maintain their composure, just play, and trust the process.

Ultimately, I feel that the Islanders lack the game-breakers to take down the Pens. Pittsburgh has a talent advantage at every position on the ice. Unlike last season, Trotz can not bank on Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov capitalizing on the Penguins mistakes.

While Trotz was the architect that led to the Capitals taking down the Penguins last spring, Sullivan and assistant coach Jacques Martin have had nearly a full calendar year to prepare and game-plan for how to beat Trotz’s 1-1-3 neutral-zone system. Sullivan is well-documented for having the ability to adjust to the style and strategies of the Penguins opponents. I expect that to continue.

Prediction: Penguins in 6 games.

Thanks for reading!

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