2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs. Bruins preview, prediction
This might sound like deja vu, but the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins are squaring off in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
For the second year in a row, the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off in the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Just like last year, the former will have home-ice advantage. This proved to be a difference maker last year in Game 7 and could wind up being the difference again.
This year, the biggest changes to each lineup include John Tavares signing with the Maple Leafs last summer and Toronto trading for Jake Muzzin from the Los Angeles Kings before the NHL trade deadline. The biggest Boston moves include acquiring Charlie Coyle and Marcus Johansson at the NHL trade deadline. A key move for the Bruins could be the signing of Jaroslav Halak if Tuukka Rask has issues in the series.
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Otherwise, the core pieces are still pretty much in place. Role players have been swapped out, but when you think of the grand scheme of things, role players will not likely make that big of a difference.
This year, unlike last year, the Bruins have a healthy team heading into the playoffs and they finally get to see Brandon Carlo dress up for a playoff game. I am excited for this because he has been silently good this season with a +22 plus-minus.
Regular Season Recap
The Bruins finished second in the Atlantic division with a 49-24-9 record and 107 Points and the Maple Leafs finished third in the division with a 46-28-8 record and 100 points.
Team Rankings
Boston: 11th in Goals For (257), 3rd in Goals Against (212), 3rd on the Power-Play (25.9%), T-16th on the Penalty Kill (79.9%)
Toronto: 4th in Goals For (286), 20th in Goals Against (249), 8th on the Power-Play (21.8%), T-16th on the Penalty Kill (79.9%)
The Season Series
The Bruins took 3 of the four regular season games and they outscored the Maple Leafs by six goals.
| Team | Team | Team | Team | Oppo | Oppo | Oppo | Oppo | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Tm | Opp | G | PP | S | PIM | GA | PP GA | SA | OppPIM | ||||
| 2019-01-12 | BOS | @ | TOR | 3-2 | W | 3 | 0 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 4 | |
| 2018-12-08 | BOS | TOR | 6-3 | W | 6 | 1 | 32 | 58 | 3 | 1 | 32 | 40 | ||
| 2018-11-26 | BOS | @ | TOR | 2-4 | L | 2 | 1 | 40 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 31 | 4 | |
| 2018-11-10 | BOS | TOR | 5-1 | W | 5 | 2 | 34 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 8 |
Data from Hockey Reference
Key Players/Matchups
The Battle Of The Offenses
The Bruins offense is often underrated and I feel that this is the case again when analysts talk about the Bruins. Sure, they are not all glamorous like some other teams in the NHL but they can score plenty of goals from time to time and they have already hung a 5 and 6 spot on the Maple Leafs.
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And we already know the Leafs can score a lot of goals, as they are the fourth-best offense in the NHL. So Toronto having a good offense is no secret and I expect them to get their fair share of goals in the series as well.
These teams to me are a wash on the top two lines and I would give the Maple Leafs a slight offensive edge on the bottom two lines. However, I also like the Bruins bottom lines because they grind it out and against smaller teams that may be the difference.
Goaltending
This is where it gets hairy because both teams have goalies who can be hot or cold at any time. We have seen it with both of these goalies this season. So the possibility is still there that the goalies help either offense put up enormous numbers.
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In fact, I expect one of these goalies to fall off sharply and my gut is saying it will be Maple Leafs goaltender Frederik Andersen since he has been a bit shaky recently over the last couple of weeks.
Boston Needs To Stop Allowing Quality Shorthanded Chances
The Bruins allowed 15 short-handed goals this season. And against a team like Toronto, if they are going to win the series this is going to be one thing they have to watch out for the most. The Bruins need to stop getting caught flat-footed and pinching in at bad times.
Toronto’s Defense
The biggest knock that I have personally had against the Maple Leafs all year was how their defense was. I still ask myself whether they can make a deep run with a defense that is so thin in comparison to the rest of the playoff teams in the Eastern Conference.
Honestly, I don’t think that it is. And God forbid if the Maple Leafs get bad goaltending to compound the situation. The Toronto defense is the biggest variable in this series. If it is average the Leafs very well could win the series.
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Is Toronto Big Enough?
This is another area on the Maple Leafs that I wonder about is if they are big enough. Not just to play against the Bruins but any of the teams in the Eastern Conference. And if you have followed me on Twitter or any of my other writings you will know that I have been consistent on this. I think the Maple Leafs made a mistake by not adding size to their roster at the NHL Trade Deadline. And we are now at the time of the season where I get to see if my suspicions about the Leafs being undersized is true or if it was much to do about nothing. I truly am interested in seeing how it plays out.
Toronto Must Use It’s Speed To Its Advantage
Toronto is undersized for this series, so if it is going to win the series it is critical that it uses its speed to create matchup problems for the Bruins. The Bruins do get beat up the ice at times. Toronto is fast so this is one area where they can take advantage of the Bruins and possibly create power play chances. And the Bruins penalty kill late in the season was suspect so this could be a great opportunity to jump on the Bruins early in the series.
Prediction
Boston in six games.
The Bruins are the more physical team and that will wear down the Maple Leafs over time. Both offenses can light up the scoreboard on any given night so in my mind, Toronto doesn’t have as big of an advantage as many other analysts think.
Boston also has the advantage on defense and strength and that will propel them to the second round more than anything else because physicality tends to slow down the smaller teams this time of year. Smaller players do not like to get smacked hard into the corners and pay that physical price and Toronto is just too small and doesn’t have the strength to match what the Bruins can dish out.
Another situation to watch is the starting goaltending. If both starting goalies struggle in the series, which I think is a real possibility, I like Boston’s chances going with Halak over Toronto’s chances going with Micheal Hutchinson. Halak could get a start in net if Rask struggles bad enough. Toronto in all likelihood would not start Hutchinson if Andersen struggles. So the Bruins have that to their advantage should they need to use it.
Toronto comes into this playoffs with a lot of the same issues as they had last playoffs. They are no strong enough and their defense remains largely unchanged. While it has solidified with the Muzzin trade, I don’t believe he himself will be enough of a difference to help the Maple Leafs.
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Even if Toronto uses the speed mismatch to its advantage I am not sure the Bruins won’t adapt to it as the series progressed. They are well coached so changes would most likely be made as the series plays out.
–Kevin Gesterling covers the National Hockey League for Puck Prose. You can reach him on Twitter @KGesterling1.
For updated 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs coverage, check out our Stanley Cup Playoffs page!