Nashville Predators: 3 Keys To Victory in Game 5

Nashville Predators were embarrassed by the Dallas Stars in Game 4. Here is what they need to do to capture the crucial Game 5 victory on home ice.

The Nashville Predators came into Game 4 on Wednesday night with a chance to take a commanding 3-1 lead in the best of 7 series against the Dallas Stars. Dallas knew the importance of tying the series at 2-2 and showed it. From the drop of the puck, Dallas tilted the ice in their favor. It was the type of game that had the anti-analytics community buzzing on Twitter.

If one looks at the numbers, and only the shot-based possession numbers, the Predators look like they dominated the game. However, it was clear they did not and deeper analytical measurements would show that.

It was a game the Nashville Predators need to put behind them immediately, and get ready for their 2:00 PM CST start on Saturday. Whoever wins Game 5 in a best of 7 series that is tied at 2-2, win the series 78.8% of the time (out of 260 such series) according to the NHL’s Twitter account.

Here are the three keys for the Predators to win Game 5.

Rinne Needs to Bounce Back

Nashville Predators goaltender, Pekka Rinne, should have plenty of rest come game time on Saturday. Not only do the Predators have a two-day break, but he sat out most of Game 4 after being pulled in the first period.

Unfortunately, this has become too familiar for Predators fans. Rinne has been pulled from a playoff game 8 times since the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He had only been pulled once in all 34 playoff games before that year.

However, he usually makes a strong start directly following a game during which head coach Peter Laviolette benched him. In the six games after being pulled, Rinne holds a 1.73 GAA allowing a total of 11 goals. He also carries a .957 SV% coming back from being benched.

The other two of the eight total games he was pulled included a Game 7 loss to the San José Sharks and Game 4 against Dallas, so there was not a chance at redemption for those games. Pulling Rinne clearly has been a good reset button for the Predators in the playoffs. If he can keep that streak going, the Predators will have a good shot at winning.

Repeat the Third Period

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The Predators played a pretty strong third period in Game 4 after a pretty lousy first two periods. Granted, Dallas probably had let off the gas pedal a bit up by five goals. Still, the Predators looked really good even with Laviolette totally overhauling the lines. The Predators managed a 2.05 xGF in the third period after combining for a total of 0.95 the first two periods, according to Natural Stat Trick. They also produced 7 of their 11 high danger scoring chances in the last frame.

The Predators also scored their only goal in the third, ending a shutout and hopefully gaining a little confidence in the process. The goal was beautiful.

Ryan Johansen and Ryan Ellis combined for a couple of drop passes and ultimately led to a Roman Josi wrister fading away and into a crowd in front of the net.

It was exactly how Dallas has scored at least three times in the series. And it is something the Predators need to do a lot more if they want consistently to beat Ben Bishop.

Special Teams Wanted, Apply Within…

To the surprise of no one, the Predators power play failed again on Wednesday night. They went 0-3 with the man advantage, bringing their series total to 0-10. The coaching staff did change-up the lines a bit which should help them moving forward. They chose to play a line of Craig Smith–Kyle Turris–Colton Sissons on the second unit.

As I wrote previously, Sissons is an asset on the power play. Additionally, those three forwards have the highest GF/60 on the power play of any forwards on the team over the last two seasons. Sprinkle in some nice player exchanges and some smart shooting that created the Josi goal, and you have a formula for success.

Somewhat more shocking was how badly the penalty kill played. The Nashville Predators gave up 3 power play goals on 7 attempts for Dallas in Game 4. It was only the second time in team history surrendering that many ppg in one playoff game.

The Predators had previously killed 11 of 12 penalties in the series. The bigger issue was the number of penalties taken by them. It was a game to forget for Mattias Ekholm.

For the Nashville Predators to have a shot in Game 5, and the rest of the playoffs, they need more discipline. They also need to have a bounce-back game from Rinne. Most importantly, they need to play a well-rounded, smart 60 minutes as they did in the third period of Game 4.