NHL Draft: How big’s the gap between Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko?

The 2019 NHL Draft has two top prospects in Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko. Hughes was initially thought of as the consensus top prospect, but has the gap closed?

This year, almost all media attention directed at the IIHF World Championships has been the play of two 2019 NHL Draft prospects. First, there’s the projected number one overall pick, Jack Hughes of Team USA. There’s also the projected second overall pick, Kaapo Kakko of Finland.

Hughes joined Team USA after the World Juniors where he broke Alex Ovechkin’s points record. Meanwhile, Kakko has put on a head turning performance at the World Championship that might make some rethink his pre-draft rankings.

Matching tweets sent by both the New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers, holders of the first and second overall picks respectively, in response to Kakko’s performance only added fuel to the speculation fire.

This is the goal that had both the Devils and the Rangers impressed, in case you missed it:

In a dream match up for hockey lovers, the two players directly face off with each other Monday morning at the World Championship. How much has Kakko really closed that gap though? And has he done it enough to rethink Devils general manager Ray Shero’s draft board?

The bigger question at hand is which tournament is a better indicator of who will be the better NHL player, the World Juniors or the World Championships? It’s a renewed argument since Hughes had his best showing at the World Juniors (despite losing to Kakko and the Fins in the gold medal game), while fellow draft mate Kakko is blasting away the competition at the World Championship. The World Championships are a good indicator of who is more “NHL ready”, as most of the rosters are made up of older and much more experienced players, and not unlike one would face in NHL.

What that comparison fails to address is that most World Championship rosters lack NHL talent, aside from a few castaways whose teams are no longer playing for the Stanley Cup. For example, the very same Finnish team that Kakko is excelling on only has one “recognized” NHL player.

The World Juniors, while lacking the experience and age of the World Championship, is a virtual breeding ground for the NHL. It’s easy to say Kakko is more NHL ready now because he’s succeeding against grown men.

However, Hughes is succeeding against players who will grow to fill the very NHL rosters he faces off against. While Kakko may be matching up against some NHL talent, the World Juniors are a better indicator of the league Kaako and Hughes will grow into.

That’s not meant to discount the World Championship, especially when evaluating the performance of an 18 year old prospect. Kakko has without a doubt closed the gap by proving he can play among men. But he hasn’t done enough to definitively say he leapfrogged Hughes in Central Scouting’s rankings.

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Instead, Kakko is following the footsteps of the second overall ranked Finn who came before him, Patrik Laine a few short years ago. Both entered the World Championship as consensus second overall picks and put on a show that made scouts and fans say “this guy is better than we thought”.

By all early indicators, Kakko will also follow his processor and get MVP honors at the World Tournament. Still, Laine heard his name called second that year, falling into the same draft slot he entered with.

Part of the “Hughes or Kakko” argument falls on the two teams they will eventually go to – the Devils and the Rangers. Not only are they both the fiercest of rivals, but New York is a media driven story, especially when it comes to sports.

As soon as the Rangers were announced to have the second overall pick, a spotlight was already being shined at the number two pick, who was all but assumed to be Kakko. The media frenzy was ready, thus helping the Kakko hype he might not have received if a smaller market team was picking second instead.

The Devils hold the upper hand, both in the fact they have the first overall pick and that their own head coach, John Hynes, is an assistant coach to Hughes at the World Championship. One of the most important sets of eyes and ears in the Devils draft room has a hand in how Hughes plays against Kakko right now. The Rangers will take whoever the Devils don’t, which might be the easiest decision ever for an NHL GM.

Let’s assume all goes as expected and Hughes goes to the Devils, and Kakko goes to the Rangers. From the second he heard Jeff Gorton call his name on that stage in Vancouver, the bright lights and camera on Broadway will be all eyes on Kakko.

While there’s no doubt he will be a franchise player that the Rangers will be thrilled to have, he’s entering a city and a team of high expectations, perhaps higher than he could ever imagine. The hype train he’s riding out of the World Championship is going full steam ahead for Penn Station in the Big Apple, and Kakko better be ready to live up to it.

No matter who picks who on draft day, the careers of Kakko and Hughes will always be intertwined. First, they squared off at the World Juniors a few months back, next they went to the IIHF World Championships. The next, and biggest step, will be the NHL.