New York Islanders: Grading Brock Nelson’s extension

The New York Islanders have signed Brock Nelson to an expensive, but necessary, extension worth $36 million over six years.

The New York Islanders entered this offseason with a number of free agents to sign. They can check “sign Brock Nelson” off their summer to-do list, as the center has signed a six-year deal worth $36 million. He will have a $6 million cap hit. There’s no word on whether or not there are any clauses or signing bonus involved.

Nelson would have hit free agency on July 1. It’s not Anders Lee or Robin Lehner, but it’s still an important re-signing by the Islanders. Let’s take a look and see how the Isles did during the negotiations of this contract.

Grading The Deal

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Nelson is coming off a season during which he set several personal bests. He scored a career-high 53 points, had a career-high 28 assists, and his 25 goals were his most since the 2015-16 season. Nelson’s average ice time per game of 17:58 was by far the highest of his career.

During the postseason, he added four goals in eight games with zero assists. Three of Nelson’s four Stanley Cup Playoff goals this year came against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round. Aside from his Game 4 goal against the Carolina Hurricanes, he was relatively quiet in the second round of the playoffs, though he did have 10 shots on goal in four games.

Under head coach Barry Trotz, Nelson served primarily as the shutdown center. His possession numbers were fairly respectable considering he started over half of his faceoffs in the defensive zone. According to Evolving Hockey‘s Goals Above Replacement model, he was worth 0.7 wins above replacement.

$6 million is a bit rich for Nelson, but it’s not a significant overpay. I had him worth about $5 million. If you factor in the free agent market and the Islanders desperate need for centers, it’s a justifiable overpayment.

While the average annual value is fine in a vacuum, it suggests the Isles needed to keep Nelson. He’s not someone who a contending team should be looking to overpay. That the Islanders felt the need to re-sign someone whose best years are likely behind him says a lot about the organization, and not all of it is good.

The term is where my primary concern lies. Nelson will turn 28 years old in October. Data suggests the Islanders have most likely seen the best years from him and he’s likely out of his prime. There are, of course, exceptions to the rule, but Nelson’s skill set isn’t one that typically ages well. Furthermore, his list of contract comparables isn’t encouraging.

His extension doesn’t put them in an optimal position with their captain Anders Lee requiring an extension before July 1 as well. That said, the Islanders aren’t starving for salary cap space at the moment, so it shouldn’t hurt them too much.

Grade: C+. The Islanders didn’t do a very good job of negotiating here. Why sign Nelson to this deal, an undeniable overpay, this far from free agency? They were a month away from starting to think about overpaying, yet they did it.