Will The NHL Ever Have A Problem Of Prospects Going Overseas?

The decision of an MLB prospect to play in Japan makes people wonder if other prospects will choose that option. Could the NHL soon have the same problem?

While the games may be different, the world of professional sports is very similar. Just because the players may throw and bat instead of skate and shoot pucks doesn’t mean the business organizations of the MLB and NHL are that much different. The similarities between the two have already been looked at in regards to labor relations and lockouts, as well as contract salary values.

The most surprising business news in the world of sports came this week when Carter Stewart, a 19-year-old MLB prospect, decided to sign a multi-million dollar contract overseas in Japan instead of signing with an MLB team.

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Stewart was previously a top ten draft pick last year, although he went unsigned and was expected to be redrafted this year. For an NHL example, that would be like if Rasmus Dahlin couldn’t agree with an entry-level deal with the Buffalo Sabres and instead signed with the KHL.

The professional baseball world has been in a near panic the past few days after the news broke. Is this the decision young players might start making, by moving overseas instead of signing stateside? While that might be what’s preoccupying MLB, is it something that we could ever see happen in the NHL?

The short answer is absolutely not. First off, Stewart’s decision was mainly driven by economic factors unique to MLB (player growth though the minor leagues, minor league pay, signing bonuses).

While it’s very common to see NHL players decide to play overseas, that’s more a decision made out of desperation. Ask any hockey players and they’ll tell you they’d much rather play for an NHL organization than an overseas league such as the KHL.

Yes, there are a few noteworthy exceptions, such as current Los Angeles Kings forward Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk famously “retired” from his 15 year blockbuster contract with the New Jersey Devils to go back home and sign a bigger contract with his hometown team, SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL.

There are multiple players with NHL experience and talent in the KHL, but they more signed with that league when all NHL options were exhausted. Take for example former New Jersey Devils defenseman Egor Yakovlev, who signed a KHL contract after one year in the big leagues in New Jersey. His NHL tenure was mostly forgettable, with little success and little reason for the Devils, or any other NHL club to re-sign him.

Then there’s former Vegas Golden Knights prospect Vadim Shipachyov. The highly touted Russian was signed by Vegas before they played their first NHL game. However, after a better than expected start by the team, he was sent to the AHL.

Unhappy with his assignment, he was suspended, only to pull a Kovalchuk by retiring and returning to the KHL. Yes, he left an NHL team for the KHL, but only after his NHL experiment had failed and he went back to the league where he has his national roots.

When we see players turn down NHL offers to play overseas, which is an extremely rare occurrence, most are “returning home”. It’s easy for someone like Kovalchuk to return to the KHL because that’s their homeland.

If we were talking about a prospect born and bred in the North American junior system, or even the NCAA, the AHL and ECHL will always take precedent. Former NHL players in the KHL also have a hard time adjusting to the KHL. there has been plenty of analysis on how the game itself differs between the two leagues, but life itself in a different country with different customs. The Chicago Tribune ran an article interviewing former NHL players in the KHL about the subject.

"“Pretty much every day there’s something that I shake my head and I can’t believe what’s going on,” said American forward Ryan Stoa, who is in his fourth KHL season after stints with the Colorado Avalanche and Washington Capitals. “There’s pretty much something every day that I can’t believe that just happened.”That’s the KHL, where former NHL defenseman James Wisniewski said, “The normal’s abnormal and the abnormal’s normal.”"

One notable exception to this rule is former first overall pick and Toronto Maple Leafs phenomenon Auston Matthews. Matthews famously had foregone his last year of junior eligibility to play in the Swiss Elite League.

There was more to Mathew’s decision, however. He missed the NHL draft cutoff by two days, so he had to wait an extra year to get drafted while most players “his age” were getting drafted in 2015, due to the cutoff technicality.

Matthews chose the Swiss league over junior hockey because playing against professional men gave him more experience and more competition. The NHL draft cutoff rule limited his options, so he chose the option that would best suit him in the long run for a professional NHL career. He was never motivated by money, and always committed to an NHL career once he was eligible.

Oftentimes when players transition from the NHL to KHL, it comes with a lot of drama and media attention, making a spectacle out of something that isn’t a spectacle, to begin with. For every one Ilya Kovalchuk, there are 10 players like Jordin Tootoo, Eddie Lack, or Matt Beleskey still chasing their dream in the AHL while awaiting an NHL call up.

While every hockey player prefers the big stage of the NHL compared to the AHL, they don’t necessarily look at the minor leagues as something beneath them. That’s hardly surprising considering that 90% of current NHL players spent time in the AHL.

Hockey has an easier path to the major leagues than baseball does. Baseball writers are quick to note the sub par working conditions and pay in baseball’s various minor leagues, not to say that AHL and ECHL players are living luxurious in comparison.

The complex structure of baseball’s minor leagues means lengthy stays of years of making low wages before prospects even get a chance at an MLB roster. The NHL and its various minor leagues are similar, but if you’re drafted at the same spot Carter Stewart was in the NHL draft (8th overall), if all goes according to plan you might only be a year or so away from being an NHL player. Stewart was looking at almost five years before major league baseball became a reality.

Lastly, there’s the little problem of money. What set Stewart’s decision in motion to turn pro in japan was the rescinding of his signing bonus from the team that drafted him, the Atlanta Braves. His contract in Japan is worth $7 million over six years.

While Kovalchuk got a pay increase ditching the Devils for Russia, the KHL is nowhere near the financial ground the NHL is. While the KHl’s top players make comparable salaries to NHL stars, there have been numerous times when the league has struggled to pay their players due to lack of funds.

Anyone who knows baseball can complain about the complex structure of baseball’s minor leagues, but the NHL and its minor leagues have largely avoided this problem. That, plus the sense of almost patriotism to play pro hockey stateside, puts any thoughts of North American born skater’s choosing the KHL over the NHL on hold. As long as the NHL is the best league in the world, hockey players would rather chase the dream here than chasing the money elsewhere.