NHL Free Agency: Which restricted free agents will be sent an offer sheet?

This off-season has proved to be one of the most interesting seasons to date. With many RFA’s soon able to negotiate potential contracts, what players will sign an offer sheet come July 1st?

In the past decade, there has only been three offer sheets in NHL free agency, with the last going to Stanley Cup MVP Ryan O’Reilly back in 2013. The last time a team accepted an offer sheet was back in 2007, when the Anaheim Ducks had seven days to match the Oilers offer sheet to forward Dustin Penner opting to receive a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft picks.

If anyone remembers how then-GM Brian Burke felt about it, well he wasn’t happy calling then-Edmonton Oilers GM, Kevin Lowe “gutless” and even challenged him to a fight. I think that may be an indication of how general managers truly feel about an offer sheet.

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The RFA class of 2019 is certainly one of the most talented group in quite some time. Leading the pack are Mitch Marner, Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen, and Sebastian Aho, amongst others Here’s a full list here.

One thing is certain – they will all require massive pay raises from whatever team signs them. While every team could use the talent any of the four players mentioned have, the price a team has to pay for them is quite something in its own right.

Teams will be given the right to talk to any RFA come 5 P.M. EST on Wednesday, June 26 and negotiate terms / AAV. The player, however, is unable to sign that offer sheet until July 1.

As mentioned above, the price you have to be willing to pay to receive such talent is a tough decision to make. Take Marner, for instance. He is prepared to be given an offer sheet by any team that has the necessary cap space to do so.

It’s no secret by now that Marner is looking for a contract similar to what teammate Auston Matthews signed. That would be five years and $11.6 million per season. With other team’s prepared to offer legitimate offer sheets to gain the rights of Marner, does that mean they really will?

While it is widely expected Marner will receive around the $11.6 million per season contract that Matthews has, team’s would be giving up a fortune. According to CapFriendly, any player who receives $10,568,590 per season, the team that has sent an offer sheet with the opposing team declining to match the contract must give up four first-round picks. Ideally, teams with RFAs like to get deals done before July 1st to avoid having to match a contract they may not be able to afford.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are in the same boat as the Toronto Maple Leafs right now. Both teams are tight in cap space, which poses a real threat shall an offer sheet come their way and other teams are aware of this.

Colorado on the other hand, shouldn’t undergo any issues signing Rantanen as they currently have the most cap space in the NHL with $38.9 million free. Toronto currently is the most interesting of the three as you all know by now. Toronto only has $13.5 million left in cap space with Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen all rumored to have accepted contracts, but it isn’t official yet.

Ironically enough, with all the talk pertaining to Marner and what his camp expect, why hasn’t anyone been talking about the Carolina Hurricanes? Sebastian Aho might just be the most intriguing option out of the “big name players”.

Aho has expressed his desire to stay with the Canes but has only been offered a laughable $6 million per year contract for the max allowed eight-years. To no surprise by anyone, he and his agent have declined that offer. If the Canes don’t believe the 21-year old Aho is worth that much, just wait until they see the potential offer sheet other teams will be sending their way. Aho could easily command between $8.5 to $10.5 million AAV per season.

Overall, I don’t expect any team to be in favor of receiving compensation over retaining their star players. Truthfully, this always comes down to using your RFA status as a bargaining chip to receive what they believe their client is worth.

The Philadelphia Flyers set the bar this off-season signing center, Kevin Hayes to a seven-year, $50 million contract ($7.142 per season). For a player that has only hit 20 goals, and 50 points once, this is a steep contract. With Hayes’ surprising contract, top players will be sure to use as an example for what they should get compared to Hayes.

While I don’t expect any offer sheet to be made this off-season due in part with what teams would have to give up, I may be wrong. If I had to put money on it, I’d say Aho is the only player that may receive an offer sheet based on Hurricanes GM Don Waddell’s unwillingness to pay him what he is worth thus far.

Carolina has the cap space to match any offer that Aho may receive to retain him. I don’t expect Aho to receive more than $9.5 million per season in regard to an offer sheet, meaning the Canes may win out in the end anyway.

As far as Toronto goes, they are in the worst-case scenario possible. With the NHL announcing only a $2 million increase for the 2019-20 season, Kyle Dubas and the Maple leaf’s have serious salary cap issues. What will happen? It’s anybody’s guess. I believe teams will be more inclined to potentially trade for Marner instead of giving up assets to retain him. Time will tell.