NHL Free Agency 2019: 5 underrated early signings

5. Colin Wilson, Colorado Avalanche

Terms: One year, $2.6 million

The Colorado Avalanche were a busy team on July 1. They signed three players, the biggest name among them probably being Joonas Donskoi, who just missed the cut for this list. On top of that, the Avalanche traded for Nazem Kadri and Calle Rosen. They paid a steep price, as they’ll miss Alexander Kerfoot and Tyson Barrie. But the Avalanche are now a pretty darn complete team.

Their re-signing of forward Colin Wilson understandably didn’t get much attention. He has scored 20 goals only once and has only one season with more than 40 points. That said, Wilson still brings a lot of value to the Avalanche. I had him at about $3 million a year on the open market.

He fits in quite well in their top-nine. The Avalanche are a team who ride and die with their best players and their offense – Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, and Gabriel Landeskog. This makes Wilson’s consistently impressive defensive fortitude a bit underrated.

Wilson isn’t going to wow you on offense, but he’s a very solid penalty killer and he can be trusted with the game on the line. It’s hard to tell precisely what his role will be, but somewhere on the second line with Nazem Kadri or the third line with (insert third-line center here) should be work for him.

4. Gustav Nyquist, Columbus Blue Jackets

Terms: Four years, $22 million ($5.5 million AAV)

The Columbus Blue Jackets were dealt a very rough hand on July 1. They knew they were going to lose three of the top five free agents – Panarin, Matt Duchene, and Bobrovsky. The last time anyone has experienced that kind of loss was when Thanos snapped his finger towards the end of Infinity War.

General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen wasted no time finding guys to replace them. Gustav Nyquist, formerly of the San Jose Sharks and Detroit Red Wings, signed a four-year deal worth $5.5 million annually. There weren’t any clauses or signing bonuses attached to this deal, which is a bit surprising. I had him worth a shade over $6 million a year on a four-year deal.

At 29 years old, Nyquist shouldn’t have gotten more than four years. Credit to the Blue Jackets for keeping the term reasonable, even if they did have to slightly overpay him. Nyquist should slot into Panarin’s role on the top line, alongside Cam Atkinson and Pierre-Luc Dubois.

There’s no fathomable way he’s replacing what Panarin brings to the table, but he should be a nice addition to the team. Nyquist is a great playmaker who has consistently elevated his linemates. Atkinson needs someone to set him up and he’s the perfect guy to do it. He isn’t much of a goal scorer, but he’s good enough to keep teams honest.

Much like Panarin, Nyquist also excels in transition and his teams have consistently generated better scoring chances at more impressive rates than they did without him on the ice. Just like Tony Stark, nobody can replace Panarin. But Nyquist was their most viable option and the Blue Jackets got him at a very reasonable price.

3. Curtis McElhinney, Tampa Bay Lightning

Terms: Two years, $2.6 million ($1.3 million AAV)

The Tampa Bay Lightning haven’t been busy in free agency. It’s not hard to see why that’s the case – they have very little cap space. The Lightning, though, did make one pretty solid signing that nobody’s really talking about. They’re bringing in veteran goaltender Curtis McElhinney on a two-year deal worth $1.3 million annually.

This is interesting for several reasons. The most obvious one is the Lightning already had a capable backup in Louis Domingue. So why sign McElhinney? Well, he’s one of the best backup goalies in the league and he proved during the 2018-19 season he can handle a decent amount of starts.

For me, this points to the Lightning resting Vezina Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy a little bit more. That was an issue during the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs and the 2019 postseason. If this is the direction the Lightning are going in, it’s the right one.

Goaltenders get tired over the course of the season. Data suggests goalies who play over 70 games get tired during postseason runs. Whether the rest they got was planned or inadvertent, recent Stanley Cup winning teams have had goalies who got rest during the regular season and dominated in the postseason.

McElhinney is 36 years old, so this contract does have a bit of risk. But it’s minimal and he has aged like fine wine to this point. Even if McElhinney declines a bit, he’d still be a pretty good bargain at just $1.3 million a year. If the Lightning are hoisting the Stanley Cup in June, it will likely be because their backup goalie kept Vasilevskiy rested for a long playoff run.

2. Richard Panik, Washington Capitals

Terms: Four years, $11 million total ($2.75 million AAV)

The Washington Capitals had a fairly quiet day on July 1. While other teams were spending money, they quietly took care of business, remodeling their third and fourth forward lines. Richard Panik was the biggest name they signed. And he could wind up being a significant bargain for them, as I had him worth $4 million a year.

Panik got the same deal Carl Hagelin got, so it’s fitting they will lead the Capitals revamped third forward line. He’ll be replacing Brett Connolly, who got a four-year deal from the Florida Panthers.

Though Connolly is more of a goal scorer, that’s about all he brings to the table. Panik brings a more well-rounded skill set to the table while still being pretty productive. Throughout his career, he has driven play on both ends of the ice, though he’s been better at doing so on offense.

Panik can also kill penalties in the right system. If the Capitals recent signings are a sign of what’s to come, they’ll likely adopt a more aggressive penalty kill. They tried it early last season but didn’t have the personnel to pull it off. Panik should be a big part of their new-look aggressive penalty kill.

He’s not going to add much on the power-play, but it’s not like the Capitals need help there. Panik is a top-nine forward who can drive possession and can score at a pretty solid rate. Best of all, his contract doesn’t have any no-trade clauses, so even if he flames out, the deal is movable.

1. Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks

Terms: Four years, $24 million ($6 million AAV)

The San Jose Sharks nearly couldn’t afford restricted free agent forward Timo Meier. But they found a way to do it. The Sharks are keeping him at a price which is far below market value, even for a restricted free agent. I had him worth about $7.25 million as an RFA on a long-term deal and over $8 million on the open market.

San Jose is loaded, so Meier’s breakout season flew in a bit under the radar. It’s easy to fall into the shadows when Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson, Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Evander Kane, and Tomas Hertl are all around. Not to mention the timeless Joe Thornton.

But guess who led the Sharks in five-on-five points last year? That would be Meier, with 47. He also led them at five-on-five in goals (22) and individual expected goals (19.84). Meier turns 23 in October, so his best days are ahead of him.

He hasn’t gotten much power-play yet, which could change with the departure of Pavelski. If Meier gets consistent power-play time with the Sharks, he could get into point per game territory. He got 66 points in 78 games despite averaging just 1:08 per game on the power play.

Meier generates offense at a borderline elite rate. He finished in the top five in five-on-five shots per hour and only Brendan Gallagher had more individual expected goals per hour. Meier also finished just inside the top 20 forwards in five-on-five points per hour (2.66).

You could argue Meier was the Sharks best forward last season. Next season, there might not be an argument against him being their best forward. Yet virtually no one’s talking about Meier. That should change very quickly once the season starts.