Dallas Stars – Jamie Benn
Contract: $9.5 million cap hit with six years left; full no-movement clause
To be clear, I think Jamie Benn’s deal is good for now. The Dallas Stars are in “win now” mode and Benn should help them do that. However, it’s not going to look good down the road. In fact, it could get ugly very quickly.
Benn is a physical forward. Those kinds of players tend not to age well unless they can adapt. Alex Ovechkin is a terrific example of a player who successfully adapted to a less physical playing style. Benn could follow in his footsteps, but there’s a key difference between Ovechkin and Benn – the former is much more skilled than the latter.
What’s particularly frightening about him is his production. Last season, Benn had 53 points in 82 games, plus 10 points in 13 postseason games. Combined, that’s 63 points. The last time Benn had a combined 63 points in a season? 2010-11. But he played in just 71 games that season.
You have to go all the way back to 2009-10 to find a less productive season from Benn (41 points in 82 games). That, by the way, was his rookie season. Benn will be 30 years old before the 2019-20 season begins. He should remain a productive player for the next few seasons.
But if Benn doesn’t, his contract will be next to impossible to get rid of thanks to his NMC and his signing bonuses ($40 million of the remaining $50 million on his contract is allocated to signing bonuses).
Dishonorable mentions: Three years and $7 million for Joe Pavelski is a tad bit much, but his recent history suggests he’ll be productive for at least two of those years if not all three. Martin Hanzal’s $4.75 million cap hit isn’t pretty, but he’s probably not going to play in the NHL again. Also, he only has one year left.