Puck Prose
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Each NHL team’s top breakout candidate for the 2019-20 season

By Dave Stevenson

BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 22: Ondrej Kase #25 of the Anaheim Ducks controls the puck against Lawrence Pilut #24 of the Buffalo Sabres during an NHL game on December 22, 2018 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Rob Marczynski/NHLI via Getty Images)
BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 22: Ondrej Kase #25 of the Anaheim Ducks controls the puck against Lawrence Pilut #24 of the Buffalo Sabres during an NHL game on December 22, 2018 at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. (Photo by Rob Marczynski/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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Photo by Rob Marczynski/NHLI via Getty Images /

Which NHL players are primed to have a breakout season in 2019-20? Using analytics as our guide, here’s each team’s top candidate.

Every year, there are NHL players who take everyone by surprise. They seemingly come from out of nowhere and become household names. This year, Brayden Point and Andreas Athanasiou were among the players who had breakout years. Who will follow in their footsteps in the 2019-20 season?

Before I begin, let’s define what a “breakout candidate” is and what I’m looking for when I look for them. To me, a breakout candidate is someone whose production increases to a level they’ve never reached before. I tend to look for players who deserve larger roles. Also, if players are outproducing their current role and there’s a spot up the lineup open for them, that’s what I like to see.

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I can’t watch every single hockey game, so I like to use analytics to help confirm what I’m seeing and also help fill in any blank spaces.

Zone entry and exit numbers are courtesy of @CJTDevil and @ShutdownLine. Other stats are courtesy of Quant Hockey, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, Puck IQ, and Evolving Hockey.

Anaheim Ducks – Ondrej Kase

If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you know how much I love Ondrej Kase. He generates offense at a first-line rate despite playing third-line minutes. It stands to gain if Kase gets more playing time, he’ll produce like a first-line forward should.

For a while, I was wondering when that chance to play in the top six would happen. As tragic as Corey Perry getting bought out was, there’s a bright side. It opens up a spot for Kase. Not just any spot either. A spot right next to Ryan Getzlaf, who, despite his declining play, is still one of the smartest players and best passers in the NHL. In 286 minutes as a duo, the Ducks have scored over three goals per hour at five-on-five with them on the ice.

Not only will Kase be getting a prime spot next to Getzlaf, but he’ll also likely be getting a prime spot on the Ducks power play. He could be a very valuable weapon there, as he’s one of the most impressive shot generators in the NHL. Over the past two seasons, Kase has averaged 10.54 shots on goal per hour at five-on-five, which is the ninth-highest rate among forwards.

This season is a perfect storm for him. I’ve been pumping his tires for a while now. He was primed to make me look smart before an injury cut his season short. Kase should have a monster season in 2018-19.

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