Pittsburgh Penguins: Marcus Pettersson is key to Evgeni Malkin

The Pittsburgh Penguins need Evgeni Malkin to recover after a down year by his lofty standards. Defenseman Marcus Pettersson could play a huge role in it.

Former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown said the following on this week’s episode of Hard Knocks on HBO – “Men lie. Women lie. But the analytics don’t.” If the Pittsburgh Penguins want a bounce-back 2019-20 season from Evgeni Malkin, they need to take a look at the analytics and realize how vitally important forming the best possible second defense pair is to Malkin’s on-ice success. This should be a relatively simple problem to solve.

If head coach Mike Sullivan goes with Marcus Pettersson, and not Jack Johnson, as Justin Schultz‘s partner on the second pair, then I anticipate Malkin to consistently perform at an elite level again. Last season’s data suggests that Sullivan doing this is the best course of action.

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As the Natural Stat Trick data below proves, in the 227 even-strength minutes that Malkin and Pettersson skated together in last season, the Penguins controlled territory at an elite rate. All the data I am using here is rated for every 60 minutes that these players were on the ice together.

• Shot Attempts For: 70.65
• Shots For: 39.11
• Scoring Chances For: 38.35
• Expected Goals For: 3.48
• Actual Goals For: 3.53

Now, let’s take a look at how Pittsburgh faired for every 60 minutes that Malkin and Johnson shared the same sheet of ice.

• Shot Attempts For: 58.08
• Shots For: 30.84
• Scoring Chances For: 28.71
• Expected Goals For: 2.52
• Actual Goals For: 2.62

As you can see, there is quite a difference in on-ice productivity here. Malkin and the Penguins as a team, both saw a significant increase in puck possession and tangible offense when Marcus Pettersson was on the second defense pair. As you will see in tweet below, Jack Johnson had the worst impact on his teammates than any of the other defenseman on this list.

My main takeaway from this is that Johnson played on a team with Sidney Crosby, Malkin, and Phil Kessel and posted a points per 60 of 0.27. Of the 124 NHL defenseman to play in at least 1,000 minutes last season, that mark ranked dead last.

It is not a coincidence that Johnson’s partner in the latter stages of the season, Justin Schultz, is also on this list. We all know Schultz is a better player than all of the defenders on that list.

It is also not a coincidence that Malkin played 365 even-strength minutes with Johnson and scored only 12 even-strength goals. Quality of teammate really matters. Johnson makes everyone

around him worse and played a big role in Malkin’s struggles last season. The data proves that.

Now, at age 33, Malkin can not carry and prop up this kind of human anchor around as he could have 10 years ago. He should not have too. Quite frankly, it is sad that this is even a point of discussion. A team with Stanley Cup aspirations should not be employing Johnson. That is the bottom line.

With Kessel now in Arizona, it is of increased importance that Malkin is put into a position to succeed each and every night. Pittsburgh really needs him to be at his best, and Pettersson is the defenseman who contributes to that by making accurate outlet passes, keeping plays alive, and having an offensive pulse. The Malkin line needs to consistently share the ice with the Petterson/Schultz pair.

I expect Pittsburgh’s coaching staff to look at their data and make the right decision here. Just like AB said, the analytics don’t lie. Thanks for reading!