NHL free agency: Should 2020 restricted free agents be worried?

Restricted free-agent negotiations have slowed to a halt in NHL free agency this summer. Should that be worrisome for next year’s free agents and beyond?

This year’s restricted free agent class in NHL free agency has been stuck in neutral this entire summer. Rumors of everyone waiting on one guy, sides far apart, negotiations not even starting yet, and anything in between is all we have to go on. It’s almost September. Something has to give.

Prominent players on prominent teams have still yet to sign. In some cases, it could even necessitate some fancy finagling of the salary cap rules to get that guy under contract in time for the 2019-20 season. This has us worried – what’s the holdup? Why is this year so different that nothing is going on?

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Let’s start by saying this is probably the best RFA class we’ve ever seen. It features Mitch Marner, Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Patrik Laine, Brayden Point, and Charlie McAvoy. The list goes on. None of these guys have contracts.

All of these stars are seemingly waiting for one domino to fall, supposedly so the market price can be established and the players can earn what they deem fair for their skill level. A big issue with this is that the big domino everyone seems to have their eyes set on is Marner, who’s probably the toughest nut to crack in the equation.

We can be assured that this will all be taken care of in the next month or so. Training camps will open up, and the players want to be ready for the season. The teams want the players to be there. William Nylander‘s case from this past year should be a cautionary tale of how not to handle the situation. Don’t let it get halfway into the season.

Additionally, we shouldn’t be expecting any offer sheets at this juncture, as most teams are either settled on their roster, don’t have the cap space, don’t have the draft picks to compensate, or aren’t buying altogether. As I said before, there aren’t too many options.

Once this summer-long saga comes to a merciful conclusion, we can start looking ahead to next year’s crop of RFA’s and hope something similar doesn’t happen. Among those who will be needing new deals are Clayton Keller, Jake Debrusk, Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Nico Hischier, Mathew Barzal, Thomas Chabot, Matt Murray, Kevin Labanc, and Mikhail Sergachev. Each one of these players is very talented and is due a hefty raise next summer.

The 2020 class doesn’t have quite the same punch as the 2019 class. But there’s still plenty of talent there to look at. And because most of those players have yet to sniff their peak, they have a real fighters’ chance to get paid even more than they would after just this season.

The question we’re building to is if there will be a similar summer of nothing but rumors and waiting around next year. Will any of these players be in a place where they will be so far apart in negotiations with their team, or teams who would need to dance carefully around the cap that may or may not go up that much, that no one can or will sign until camps open up in September 2020?

Let’s circle back to this summer and look at the guys who are left. Some players, like Marner, Point, or Tkachuk, play for teams who are up against the cap. Brock Boeser and Charlie McAvoy represent those who don’t have the ability to receive an offer sheet, thus having less leverage against their team for the contracts they want.

Patrik Laine is simply waiting for the phone to ring. The point we’re building to is that someone, be it the team or the player, is being difficult in negotiation for one reason or another.

Now, do we have such cases for next season? Let’s look at some of the high-profile players in our 2020 list and see if we can predict any similar situations based on team needs and the salary cap.

Debrusk will be an interesting case because his Bruins are certain to be up against the cap. DeBrincat and Strome could end up in a similar boat to Connor and Laine, especially if Chicago can’t unload any contracts (though Corey Crawford‘s deal is expiring). Nico Hischier may get the most money out of all of them and the Devils hope to have Taylor Hall under contract by then, who would demand eight figures in his own right.

Mat Barzal may have the most Marner-like scenario to look forward to, with the cap certain to squeeze them next year, but he would probably be the only major priority for the Islanders next summer. Thomas Chabot may deserve a big raise, and Ottawa has cap space for days, but who knows if Eugene Melnyk might get in the way? Clayton Keller and the Coyotes may have similar budgetary issues, just without the headline-grabbing owner.

Next year’s RFA’s aren’t as likely to cause as much of a stir as they have this year. Barring a super breakout by someone for 100+ points, it’s not likely that any of them would be worth the kind of money Marner is demanding. However, there may still be some cap difficulty, looking at the Bruins and Islanders more specifically than others. So it may just be a unique year this year for RFA’s.

Will this be a problem that reappears on a yearly basis? Well, it can be. Players and their agents will demand as much money as they can for the level of play they produce. It’s completely understandable and respectable. They should be compensated appropriately for being better at their job than others.

Teams may not be so willing to drop that kind of money and/or cap space on that one player, because they’ve seen how it could handcuff themselves down the road when the time comes for the next wave of young stars needing new contracts. That’s why the smart teams don’t bog themselves down with big UFA’s, but that’s a story for another time.

Combine the two ends bargaining in opposite directions, throw a little bit of cap crunch in there, and you have an RFA negotiation that lasts all summer.

Another option is teams simply prioritizing other areas on the team before getting to the RFA’s. The thing about RFA’s is that they are quasi-tied to their current team, with the ability to match an offer sheet, so teams will look elsewhere before getting to them.

Think about the progression of the off-season after the Stanley Cup Finals wrap up. You have the draft, free-agent negotiation window, and free-agent signings. These all involve players who may end up with other teams if you don’t act now, so they obviously get top priority over someone who’s sticking around if you say so.

That opens up the long summer for negotiations, or just letting it sit while team brass is taking a summer vacation. If someone comes along and sends an offer sheet now, the team can just match it and move on.

These two directions for RFA’s taking forever to sign will always be there under the current collective bargaining setup. It’s just exacerbated this year because of the big-time players who are up for new contracts coinciding with a cap that’s limiting options for teams. You may get a case here or there with a player holding out (see Nylander, William), especially if your team name starts with an “M” and rhymes with Staple Leafs, but it doesn’t come along that often.

Realistically, we should expect things to go back to the normal way of things next summer, because the star power on the RFA market isn’t nearly as strong as it is this year, and the cap crunch that exists now may not be a thing next year. The normal thing, of course, includes waiting until later on in the summer, but without the big drama.

So breathe easy. This summer is probably just the exception and not the rule. As long as the collective bargaining agreement exists in current form, this has the potential to happen, but it likely won’t be on this scale for a while.