NHL free agency: Projecting contracts for the top 5 restricted free agents

5. Brock Boeser

Fortunately for the Vancouver Canucks, Boeser isn’t eligible for an offer sheet, so general manager Jim Benning has been able to take his time in contract negotiations with the 22-year-old star.

It’s a tricky situation with Boeser here. Do the Canucks pay him for what he’s done or pay him for what they think he’s going to do? He scored 29 goals and 55 points in his rookie 2017-18 season despite missing 20 games. This past season, he scored 26 goals and 56 points in 69 games.

Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Province recently reported that Ben Hankinson, Boeser’s agent, wants a four-year deal worth $7 million per season. That’s reasonable for a top-line forward that’s only entering his prime, but there’s just one issue.

The Canucks are up against the cap following a giant offseason spending spree, so Benning might have to move out one of his veteran forwards in order to fit in Boeser’s new contract. Ideally, he’d find a way to move out an expensive veteran like Brandon Sutter or Loui Eriksson.

Boeser and the Canucks should be able to get a deal done well before the start of the regular season. It won’t be a bridge deal, nor a long-term pact. But when all is said and done, they’ll get close to Hankinson’s asking price.

Prediction: Four years, $25.5 million

4. Mikko Rantanen

The Colorado Avalanche are playing a dangerous game, with general manager Joe Sakic recently stating that contract negotiations with Rantanen won’t pick up again until closer to training camp.

While Rantanen awaits further contract discussions, he’s taken it upon himself to head overseas and practice in Norway. Obviously, Rantanen and the Avalanche are fine delaying contract talks, but this doesn’t mean that they’re on the verge of reaching a deal.

The Avalanche still have over $15.615 million in cap space, per CapFriendly. Sakic has plenty of room to work with, and he shouldn’t be the least bit nervous about giving Rantanen the superstar money that he’s worth.

After breaking out with 20 goals in the 2016-17 season, Rantanen has taken his game to another level, surpassing the 80-point mark in each of the last two years. He’s also only 22 years of age, so perhaps Rantanen hasn’t even hit his full prime yet. With Nathan MacKinnon anchoring the top line, Rantanen should be a consistent 80-point player for years to come.

The Avalanche might try to settle on a bridge deal with Rantanen, but it’d be easier for everybody if a long-term deal was the ultimate resolution. It could take a few more weeks to finalize, but when all is said and done, expect Rantanen to earn the big money that he’s more than deserving of. No bridge deal nor hometown discount.

Prediction: 8 years, $85 million

3. Brayden Point

With the exception of Point, the Tampa Bay Lightning have all of their superstar players locked up long-term. He most certainly won’t come cheap, however, not after registering career highs in goals (41) and points (92).

The Lightning have just over $8.476 million in cap space, per CapFriendly. But if Point is seeking more than $10 million per season, the front office might have to move out another veteran to make it work.

It’s a difficult situation for the Lightning here. Point went from 40 points to 66 to 92 over his first three seasons. Should Tampa really give him superstar money, or are they better off trying to get Point to sign a bridge deal? It’s impossible to know if Point will continue to produce at that pace, or if 2018-19 was simply a mirage.

But again, Tampa doesn’t have to pay any of its other star players again any time soon. Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Victor Hedman, and Andrei Vasilevskiy are all under long-term deals.

As such, general manager Julien BriseBois shouldn’t be worried about securing cap space over the long run. He should just try to get Point under a long-term deal because a bridge contract will just complicate things down the road.

Oh, and it helps that the Lightning play in a no-tax state, so that will be an easy selling point in convincing their star player that this is where he can make the most money.

Prediction: Seven years, $65 million

2. Patrik Laine

It’s hard to believe that one of the game’s flashiest goal-scorers and purest snipers remains unsigned nearly two months into free agency. The Winnipeg Jets have taken a calculated risk by leaving Laine unsigned this long, and it’s also a surprise that the Finnish star hasn’t been the target of an offer sheet yet.

Complicating matters is the fact that teammate Kyle Connor is also an RFA, and he’s in line for a huge raise after scoring 34 goals and 66 points last year. The Jets only have about $17.592 million in cap space to work with, per CapFriendly.

This past season was considered a “down” year for Laine, even though he tallied 30 goals and 50 points. He posted 44-26-70 the year prior and 36-28-64 the year prior. Perhaps Laine’s frustrating 2018-19 season is why the Jets have been hesitant in meeting his contract demands.

Laine said in a recent interview with Sportsnet that in this business, you have “to be be prepared for anything,” while adding he has “nothing bad to say about Winnipeg.” Those last few words alone should calm the nerves of Jets fans.

General manager Kevin Cheveldayoff has proven to be a smart negotiator, getting the likes of Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, and Connor Hellebuyck to sign team-friendly deals. There’s little reason to believe he won’t end up doing so with Laine.

The Jets and Laine might decide to hold off on the eight-year max term deal another day, so look for them to find a happy medium between a bridge deal and a long-term pact.

Prediction: Four years, $34 million

1. Mitch Marner

You can’t blame Marner for staying patient during the whole RFA process. He’s coming off the best season of his career (26 goals and 94 points), and he was unquestionably Toronto’s most productive player during their first-round series against the Boston Bruins.

Marner may never score 94 points again, so it makes perfect sense for him to max out while he can. The Maple Leafs know that Marner wants to be paid what he’s worth, but their difficult salary cap situation has made negotiations extremely difficult.

Toronto gave Auston Matthews a five-year contract worth $58 million during the 2018-19 season, and Marner is probably hoping for a similar term. Hard to envision the latter willingly taking less on an annual basis than Matthews.

But at the end of the day, it’s hard to envision Marner wanting to leave Toronto even if he could possibly land more money elsewhere. If an offer sheet ever comes, general manager Kyle Dubas will have to match it. He doesn’t have a choice.

When all is said and done, the Maple Leafs and Marner will be able to find a middle ground and agree to a multi-year deal. The latter will take a slight pay cut and set himself up nicely for an even bigger contract down the road.

Prediction: Five years, $50 million