Anaheim Ducks: 2019-20 season preview, predictions
After an offseason of changes, the Anaheim Ducks are hoping a younger roster, along with better health from John Gibson, leads them back to the postseason.
The Anaheim Ducks went through quite a few changes this summer. They let go of head coach Randy Carlyle after it became clear he wasn’t the right coach for them moving forward. Replacing him will be successful AHL head coach Dallas Eakins.
Gone is Corey Perry, who might well be the second-best wing in Ducks history, trailing only Teemu Selanne. His buyout was painful, but necessary, as it should open up a roster spot for a younger player to make the team. Also, the Ducks had eight players over the age of 30 play at least 20 games for them last season. This season could see that number cut down to three.
All of this plus Eakins’ hiring suggests the Ducks are beginning a retooling or rebuilding process. He has been a great coach in the AHL, helping a number of the Ducks’ younger players develop into regular NHL players. The big question is, how well will Eakins work with older players like Ryan Getzlaf?
For most of the salary cap era, the Ducks have been in the postseason conversation. Their chances might not seem good on paper, but they certainly exist. Crazier things have happened. The Ducks are hoping a younger roster and a necessary change behind the bench will have them playing competitive hockey again.
Offseason Review
Added: Nicolas Deslauriers, Andreas Martinsen, Jani Hakanpää, Michael Del Zotto, Justin Kloos, Chris Wideman, Anthony Stolarz, Blake Pietila, Andrew Poturalski
Re-signed: Ryan Miller, Korbinian Holzer, Derek Grant, Sam Carrick
Lost: Corey Perry, Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, Jaycob Megna, Ben Street, Andy Welinski
The Ducks were fairly quiet after the start of free agency, which isn’t new for them. Despite his age, Miller’s still a very reliable backup. And if age finally catches up to him, Stolarz could be a quality backup option.
Strengths
Every good team has at least one strength they can rely on to get them through tough times. Most good teams have multiple strengths. What are the Ducks strengths?
Goaltending
In the NHL, goaltending can be a huge factor. It can save your season or it can ruin it, depending on who you ask. For the Ducks, their goaltending will likely be saving it, as they have an impressive goaltending tandem.
Their tandem is led by arguably the best goaltender in the world, John Gibson. In each of the past three seasons, he has been in the top four in goals saved above average, according to Corsica. Gibson has a GSAA of 83.03 during that time, which is the highest in the league.
Even during an off-year, he still stopped .917% of the shots he saw, despite seeing a lot of shots from high-danger areas. Gibson’s capable of carrying the Ducks for long stretches. And if the Hart Trophy truly goes to the player who is most valuable to his team, you could make a really good case for Gibson.
Over the past three seasons, Miller ranks ninth in GSAA. No other team has two goaltenders in the top 10. Stolarz has proven to be a capable goalie in the past but got lost with the Flyers. Perhaps a move out west will be good for him.
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Blue Line
The Ducks defense struggled under Carlyle, but I’m optimistic they’ll do better with Eakins as their coach. Hampus Lindholm is one of the best defensemen you’ve never heard of. Josh Manson has put up some promising numbers and Cam Fowler struggled mightily under Carlyle.
Brendan Guhle is an interesting piece and despite his inability to win a consistent spot with the Buffalo Sabres, I still think he’s an NHL guy. Jacob Larsson has bloomed quite a bit under Eakins in the AHL. Maybe the trend continues at the next level.
It’s not a guarantee, but the Ducks blueline ought to be better than a lot of people think.
Weaknesses
Scoring Goals
No team scored fewer goals than the Ducks last season. They were dreadful across the board, finishing with the second-worst goals per hour rate at even strength (2.23) and the 10th-worst goals per hour rate on the power play (6.00).
The full-time additions of Sam Steel, Max Jones, and Troy Terry should help. A healthy Ondrej Kase should be a huge addition, especially if he gets first-line minutes and keeps scoring at a first-line rate. It’s hard to imagine Rickard Rakell struggling to score as much as he did last season. However, the Ducks are still going to struggle to score goals.
Penalty Kill
Losing Ryan Kesler is going to make killing penalties a lot harder for the Ducks. Last season, they finished 20th in the league on the penalty kill, killing 79.70% of their penalties. It could have been much worse. No team allowed more scoring chances against per hour while shorthanded than the Ducks.
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They also allowed the most expected goals against in the league while shorthanded at 61.05. This could change with some systemic adjustments, but Eakins has a long road ahead of him to improve this penalty kill.
Lack Of Elite Talent
Gibson’s an elite goaltender. However, the Ducks don’t have elite talent in front of him. Elite talent is a currency in today’s NHL. The best teams tend to have at least one skater who is either elite or close to it. Anaheim does not. That’s going to make it hard for them to make the postseason.
Burning Questions
Can Henrique Replace Kesler?
Adam Henrique has been quietly solid for the Ducks. He led them last season in WAR (1.5), according to Evolving Hockey. Henrique will be expected to replace Kesler as their full-time second-line center. He’ll also likely be asked to take over his massive role on the penalty kill. With a young roster, Henrique’s an important guy for the Ducks.
Is Kase Ready For A Promotion?
I’m a huge fan of Ondrej Kase. For the past two seasons, he’s largely been a bottom-six forward in terms of ice time. But if you look at Kase’s rate stats, he grades out as a top-line forward. There’s a wide-open spot net to Getzlaf on the Ducks’ first line. You have to think Kase will get first dibs at grabbing it. If he does, he could have a breakout season.
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Are The Kids Ready?
The Ducks forward group got a bit of a spark last season from three young forwards. Max Jones, Sam Steele, and Troy Terry all did fairly well in their NHL debuts, posting 29 combined points in 84 games. Each of them will likely get a chance to earn a full-time spot. It wouldn’t be surprising if all three make the team.
However, will they be ready to make an impact? The Ducks will need their young players to do so if they want to make the playoffs. I like all three of the kids. Anaheim’s season could very well come down to how much they develop. Keep an eye on Max Comtois as well. Eakins likes him a lot, so he might have a shot at the Opening Night roster.
Preview And Predictions
It has been a while since the Anaheim Ducks haven’t been contenders to start a season. This season will change that. The Ducks are just starting their rebuilding/retooling process. Gibson at least gives them a slight chance of making the postseason, but they just have too many flaws for me to consider them a serious contender for making the playoffs.
That said… how could the Ducks make the postseason? It would require a lot of things going right. Gibson would have to be the best goalie in the world (which he arguably is right now). Getzlaf would have to bounce back from a down year (for him, anyway). Their young players are going to have to be ready to be difference makers. Oh, and they’ll need to stay healthy.
Is it plausible? Absolutely. But is it likely? Probably not. Even in a relatively weak Pacific Division, just about every team has done something to improve themselves this summer. The Ducks haven’t, so it’s going to be hard for them to make improvements from last season.
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Prediction: They’ll be a competitive team, mostly thanks to Gibson. Eakins does a good job coaching in his return to the NHL. But ultimately, the 2019-20 season will be judged by how much their young players develop rather than how many games they win.